I am not being deceitful. I confess, there is more to this then the title indicates, but there is in fact a way to increase your parlay payouts by 25x. For those of you unaware, north of the border in Canada there is a government run sports lottery called Sports Select. The odds are appalling and the player is at a colossal disadvantage due to house rules. There is one part of this idiotic charade called Pools. If played correctly, Pools presents an exceptionally profitable betting opportunity each Sunday. The goal of Pools is to predict the outcome of each NFL game per week straight up, no point spread. The cost for a single entry is $5. Your money goes into a prize pool. If you have the highest winning total of the week (usually 16/16 or 13/13) you win the prize pool. Focusing on the OLG this season (Ontario Lottery) the average weekly prize pool is $691,860. The average payout is $64,740 after ties.
As soon this was brought to my attention, I was immediately turned onto the idea of finding a way to put the odds in the players favor. A money-line parlay of 13 teams who are all underdogs would not get close to the average payout of 13,000/1 at an offshore book. There was so much lee-way to work with, there had to be a way, and I found it.
Now I can guarantee with every dollar I have to my name that this has been thought of before. However, I can guarantee that no one has ever looked at it like I do. This is for two main reasons. One, if you bet offshore, you are smart enough to realize how stupid you ever were for even considering playing sport select. On the contrary, if you play sport select, you are too stupid to know what you are missing online. End of the day, 98% of the players playing sports select have no idea what they are missing online in terms of pricing. Two, I do not believe that anyone has had the balls or the time to do what I am planning to do.
When you go to purchase a pools ticket, you have a few options. Playing a regular play, picking all the games straight up for $5. Or you can choose to box up to a max of four games for a price of $80. Boxing a game means that regardless of the side that wins, you win that game. In essence, boxing 4 games in a 13 game week makes this a 9 team parlay rather then a 13 team parlay, only hitch is that it costs $80 rather then $5. Here is what got me thinking. What if you were able to box say, 9 games? That would leave you with only four straight up winners to pick. No point spreads, just winners. Does not seem too hard does it? Consider the following…
This strategy would only work for the weeks with teams on bye weeks. weeks five, six, seven and eight. With week five in the books, that leaves this week and the remaining two in October. Once November comes, this is out the window.
In order to effectively “Box” nine games, you would have to play 512 tickets. There are 512 possible outcomes in a 9 game parlay. If you are skeptical on the math, here is how to figure that tally out.
If there is a two game parlay, you can choose home or away in each game. Therefore the possible outcomes are H+H, H+V, V+V, V+H. The mathematical formula is 2^n. The number 2 represents the potential outcomes, n represents the number of legs. For you non mathematically capable, the ^ is to the power of. Do this for a three team parlay. 2^3=8. Do it for a four team parlay 2^4=16. If you must write out the home and away possibilities, it is correct.
In order to buy 512 tickets the price would be $2560. Before we jump to far ahead, lets recap this part a little bit.
There would be 512 tickets purchased at $5 a ticket for a price of $2560. Each ticket would have a set of identical four games with moneyline/outright win outcomes. Along with those four games there would be every other possible outcome in the other nine games meaning that if the four games picked come through, somewhere in the stack of 512 tickets, there is a winning ticket.
If you are questioning where the value lies in this, or what the point is. Look at this breakdown.
Lets use Sunday’s games as example.
My four money-line plays would be, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, New York Jets. That money-line parlay at 5dimes pays out 1.25/1. Using the average payout in the Ontario Lottery going back to last season, those four games have a payout of 25.68/1.
If you were to place this wager online, you would be betting $2560 to win $3200.
If you were to place this wager in Pools, you would be betting $2560 to win an average of $64,740
Looking at this from a novice bettors perspective it may not be worth it. After all who wants to lay $2560 on a four team parlay? Looking at this from a professional bettor like myself (10 years experience for a majority of my income) stand point, this is unheard of value.
Now the question you have to ask yourself is this. If you were able to get 25:1 on this parlay. Would you, and for how much would you play it for? I don’t think anyone would turn this offer down.
My question is, how do you figure out the exact combinations for each ticket. Normally this would be easy in a spread sheet if your teams were 1,2,3,4 on the ticket. However, this week GB is 1, Pitt is 2, NE is 10 and NYJ is 13. So on each of the 512 tickets 1,2,10 and 13 are all picked as home. New England listed at 10 really screws up the pattern. I have been able to put 162 tickets into a spread sheet. Is there a method anyone can think of to ensure you have each pattern figured out so you can fill out each ticket?
There are three weeks left to take advantage of this, and I plan to do it. Perhaps we can figure this one out.
As soon this was brought to my attention, I was immediately turned onto the idea of finding a way to put the odds in the players favor. A money-line parlay of 13 teams who are all underdogs would not get close to the average payout of 13,000/1 at an offshore book. There was so much lee-way to work with, there had to be a way, and I found it.
Now I can guarantee with every dollar I have to my name that this has been thought of before. However, I can guarantee that no one has ever looked at it like I do. This is for two main reasons. One, if you bet offshore, you are smart enough to realize how stupid you ever were for even considering playing sport select. On the contrary, if you play sport select, you are too stupid to know what you are missing online. End of the day, 98% of the players playing sports select have no idea what they are missing online in terms of pricing. Two, I do not believe that anyone has had the balls or the time to do what I am planning to do.
When you go to purchase a pools ticket, you have a few options. Playing a regular play, picking all the games straight up for $5. Or you can choose to box up to a max of four games for a price of $80. Boxing a game means that regardless of the side that wins, you win that game. In essence, boxing 4 games in a 13 game week makes this a 9 team parlay rather then a 13 team parlay, only hitch is that it costs $80 rather then $5. Here is what got me thinking. What if you were able to box say, 9 games? That would leave you with only four straight up winners to pick. No point spreads, just winners. Does not seem too hard does it? Consider the following…
This strategy would only work for the weeks with teams on bye weeks. weeks five, six, seven and eight. With week five in the books, that leaves this week and the remaining two in October. Once November comes, this is out the window.
In order to effectively “Box” nine games, you would have to play 512 tickets. There are 512 possible outcomes in a 9 game parlay. If you are skeptical on the math, here is how to figure that tally out.
If there is a two game parlay, you can choose home or away in each game. Therefore the possible outcomes are H+H, H+V, V+V, V+H. The mathematical formula is 2^n. The number 2 represents the potential outcomes, n represents the number of legs. For you non mathematically capable, the ^ is to the power of. Do this for a three team parlay. 2^3=8. Do it for a four team parlay 2^4=16. If you must write out the home and away possibilities, it is correct.
In order to buy 512 tickets the price would be $2560. Before we jump to far ahead, lets recap this part a little bit.
There would be 512 tickets purchased at $5 a ticket for a price of $2560. Each ticket would have a set of identical four games with moneyline/outright win outcomes. Along with those four games there would be every other possible outcome in the other nine games meaning that if the four games picked come through, somewhere in the stack of 512 tickets, there is a winning ticket.
If you are questioning where the value lies in this, or what the point is. Look at this breakdown.
Lets use Sunday’s games as example.
My four money-line plays would be, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, New York Jets. That money-line parlay at 5dimes pays out 1.25/1. Using the average payout in the Ontario Lottery going back to last season, those four games have a payout of 25.68/1.
If you were to place this wager online, you would be betting $2560 to win $3200.
If you were to place this wager in Pools, you would be betting $2560 to win an average of $64,740
Looking at this from a novice bettors perspective it may not be worth it. After all who wants to lay $2560 on a four team parlay? Looking at this from a professional bettor like myself (10 years experience for a majority of my income) stand point, this is unheard of value.
Now the question you have to ask yourself is this. If you were able to get 25:1 on this parlay. Would you, and for how much would you play it for? I don’t think anyone would turn this offer down.
My question is, how do you figure out the exact combinations for each ticket. Normally this would be easy in a spread sheet if your teams were 1,2,3,4 on the ticket. However, this week GB is 1, Pitt is 2, NE is 10 and NYJ is 13. So on each of the 512 tickets 1,2,10 and 13 are all picked as home. New England listed at 10 really screws up the pattern. I have been able to put 162 tickets into a spread sheet. Is there a method anyone can think of to ensure you have each pattern figured out so you can fill out each ticket?
There are three weeks left to take advantage of this, and I plan to do it. Perhaps we can figure this one out.
hno:
