Cnotes MLB World Series Best Bets !

World Series odds and pick: Is an upset in the Cards?
Texas Rangers (96-66) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
Series odds: Rangers -160, Cardinals +140
The Rangers are World Series favorites despite the Cardinals owning home-field advantage. Does that mean St. Louis' miracle season is about to end? Here's how we see the series breaking down:
PITCHING:
Both teams have received little from their starting pitchers so far in the postseason. The Rangers prevailed over Detroit in six games despite not getting a single victory from a starter in the American League championship series.
C.J. Wilson will likely get the call for Texas in Game 1, and he'll be an instant underdog against steady Cardinals counterpart Chris Carpenter. Beyond that, it could get messy; the other three pitchers to start for St. Louis in the playoffs - Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson - are 1-4 with a collective 6.21 ERA in their eight outings.
With the bullpens expected to see plenty of action, Texas has the slightest of edges in that regard. The Rangers relief staff is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA and .193 opposing batting average, with the Cardinals (4-0, 2.55 ERA, .177 opp. BA) right on their heels. Carpenter gives St. Louis the edge in this one, but only by the slimmest of margins.
EDGE: Cardinals
HITTING:
Few teams can match the offensive prowess of the Rangers - but the Cardinals are one of them. St. Louis leads all playoff teams with a .288 average and 62 runs scored.
The surprising David Freese (.425, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs) leads the way for the Cardinals, with the always dependable Albert Pujols (.419, 2 HRs, 10 RBIs) right behind. Matt Holliday (.375) looked good against Milwaukee, while Lance Berkman (.237, 1 HR, 6 RBIs) did not.
Texas rode Nelson Cruz (6 HR) to victory in the ALCS, but will need stronger performances from just about everyone else. With Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler combining for just two postseason home runs - after hitting 87 in the regular season - the Rangers can ill afford to suffer through a similar power outage against a St. Louis club that has a formidable offense of its own.
Expect better performances from that trio, which will be enough to give Texas the advantage here.
EDGE: Rangers
INTANGIBLES: It's difficult to quantify which factor offers a bigger advantage: the Cardinals being led by Tony La Russa, one of the game's best managers; or the Rangers having been to the World Series just one season earlier and carrying that big-game experience with them into this year's Fall Classic. The difference maker will likely be the Cardinals' home-field advantage, which should give them the tactical edge.
EDGE: Cardinals
PREDICTION: Cardinals in seven games.

Texas Rangers Return To World Series

Nelson Cruz set playoff records with 6 HR and 13 RBI in the ALCS.
Anyone still harboring notions that the Texas Rangers' appearance in the 2010 World Series was a fluke can shelf those thoughts.

Texas hoisted its second American League flag with an emphatic 15-5 win over the Detroit Tigers in Game 6 of the ALCS. A 9-run third inning had the Rangers clubhouse staff icing down the bubbly early in the evening as a crowd of more than 51,000 in Arlington watched in anticipation.

Michael Young was the hitting star in Game 6, his pair of 2-run doubles in the big third inning fueling the outburst. He later added a solo homer to finish the evening with five runs driven in.

Nelson Cruz was the star for the series with postseason records for home runs (6) and RBI (13) for a single postseason series.

As big as Cruz, Young and the rest of the Texas bats have been in scoring 55 runs over 10 playoff contests, the real key for manager Ron Washington and the Rangers has been the bullpen. Scott Feldman, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz have come up huge, allowing just two earned runs over the course of 18 combined appearances and nearly 27 innings.

The one big question mark for Texas heading into a second consecutive Fall Classic is starting pitching. Ten playoff games have yielded all of one quality start for the rotation, that coming in Game 3 of the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay by Colby Lewis.

Lefties CJ Wilson and Derek Holland have been pounded along the way, the pair combining to serve up 11 homers in 29 1/3 innings to go with a 6.67 ERA between the two. Washington figures to stick with Wilson to start Game 1 of the World Series, just as he has opened the previous two playoff series.

Those two southpaws are joined by Matt Harrison to give Texas three left-handers to face whoever emerges from the National League between St. Louis and Milwaukee, and that could be key for the Rangers to help make up for not having home-field advantage in the World Series. The Brewers were 18-18 vs. lefty starters in the regular season, and have gone 2-1 against them in the postseason. The Cardinals were 19-20 when facing left-handers during the regular campaign, 1-2 so far in October.

Updated MLB futures following Texas' AL Championship had the Rangers -145 favorites to go on all the way and take their first World Series title. The Cardinals (+150) and Brewers (+500) followed with those two teams still locked in an NLCS brawl that saw St. Louis taking a 3-2 lead into Sunday's Game 6.

The World Series will get underway Wednesday night in either St. Louis or Milwaukee.

Cardinals, Rangers World Series Game 1 Preview

An interesting prop bet for this year's World Series might be an 'over/under' on the number of starting pitchers to work more than five innings. Judging by how the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals worked their way through the League Championship Series round, the 'under' would draw a lot of action.

The matchup between the Rangers and Cardinals is probably surprising enough to most folks, but it's how the two clubs got here that is a complete shock to fans and bettors who have followed the sport over the years. Texas' appearance as repeat American League champs really shouldn't be too surprising and the opening odds like the Rangers at -160 to take home their first World Series title.

St. Louis just making the playoffs was stunning to say the least, with the Redbirds 10.5-games out of the National League Wild Card race a little more than a month from the end of the regular season. They first had to dump the heavily-favored Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, then drop the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS.

Still, neither the Cardinals nor the Rangers made it to this point the old-fashioned way, behind stellar starting pitching. It should have the Phillies scratching their heads right now after the incredible rotation they assembled for the 2011 campaign.

All told, Texas and St. Louis starters worked just 53 innings in the 12 LCS contests and were charged with 40 earned runs (6.79 ERA). The relievers for both clubs tossed 56 innings and surrendered 10 runs (1.60).

It's enough to make you stop and wonder if Scott Feldman and Marc Rzepczynski might be the real 'aces' of these two staffs.

The actual No. 1 starters for each club are expected to get things rolling Wednesday night at Busch Stadium where the Cardinals finally have home-field advantage in the postseason, thanks to the NL winning the All-Star Game. Texas manager Ron Washington had yet to make an official announcement on his starter, though CJ Wilson is the most likely choice. Tony La Russa and St. Louis will turn to Chris Carpenter.

Early numbers for the matchup showed Carpenter and the Cards -120 choices with a 7½-run betting total.

Wilson has struggled this postseason to put it mildly. Following up on a regular season that saw the Rangers win 21 of his 34 starts while the southpaw fashioned a 2.94 ERA, Wilson has been raked for a 1.85 WHIP and 8.04 ERA in three playoff starts, Texas only winning once.

He had a bad break in his last start, Game 5 of the ALCS in Detroit, when a Miguel Cabrera grounder took a bounce off the third base bag to open the doors for a 4-run Tigers sixth inning. Wilson will be facing a Cardinals lineup that is 20-22 vs. left-handers, including the postseason.

Colby Lewis would be the Game 1 starter for the Rangers if Wilson doesn't get the starting nod on Wednesday. Lewis picked up a win in the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay, then took a loss in the ALCS against the Tigers.

Carpenter had the last quality start by a Cardinals pitcher when he tossed his complete game, 3-hit shutout to win the NLDS vs. Philadelphia. The veteran right-hander followed that up with a rather ho-hum outing in Game 3 of the NLCS, allowing three Brewers runs in five innings of St. Louis' 4-3 victory.

Both managers would no doubt love to see their starters go at least seven innings each game. Each staff certainly has arms capable of turning around the crazy numbers in the two league championship series. But don't think for one minute that either Washington or La Russa will hesitate to go to their 'pens.

Remember that La Russa, plus his longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan, once used a 'platoon rotation' when they were in Oakland back in 1993.

Both managers also have very potent lineups that can help bail out ineffective pitchers. Thanks to the red-hot Nelson Cruz, the Rangers have ramped up their scoring a bit with 55 runs in 10 postseason games; they were third in the majors during the regular season with a 5.28 RPG mark.

David Freese has overshadowed stars like Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman in the St. Louis batting order this October. The Cardinals were tops in the NL scoring 4.70 runs per game through the regular season, and have exceeded that in the playoffs with a 5.64 average.

The Rangers shouldn't suffer too much without a DH in the games played at Busch Stadium. The odd men out will be Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba. Michael Young was the DH in six of Texas' 10 playoff games to date, but should be at 1B for Games 1 and 2.

There really isn't much history between the two clubs, with just one interleague series meeting along the way, and that was over seven years ago in June 2004. St. Louis won two of the three played in Texas, with Carpenter the losing pitcher in the only defeat and the 'over' going 2-1.

Cloudy, cool, windy and a 20 percent chance of rain is the St. Louis forecast for Wednesday. FOX, in its infinite wisdom, still hasn't decided on the exact game time, but the thermometer will already be in the upper-40s around 8:30 p.m. (ET), 7:30 local. A pretty good NW wind (12-15 mph) across from left to right is part of the mix.

Rangers, Cards meet in World Series

Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton in a matchup of MVP sluggers. Nelson Cruz and David Freese becoming bigger names with each home run swing. Pitching staffs full of shaky starters and shutdown relievers.

Plus a Rally Squirrel and the Claw.

The Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals, with a lot of symmetry, are all set to get acquainted in the World Series.

Leave it to ol' Arthur Rhodes to make the introductions. The 41-year-old lefty specialist began the year with Texas, wound up in St. Louis and is likely to get a ring either way.

Besides, it takes someone who's been around a bit to remember the last time these teams played.

It was 2004, in a three-game set in Texas. Even in this era of interleague play, that's the only time the Cardinals and Rangers have met when it meant something. According to STATS LLC, that matches the fewest games between a pair of opponents in the majors, tying Mets-White Sox.

Game 1 is Wednesday night in St. Louis, with aces Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and C.J. Wilson set to start. The opening odds see Texas as a small favorite.

``The Rangers are scary. They're a scary team,'' said Freese, the NLCS MVP. ``You look at that lineup, you look at that staff. It's going to be a battle.''

``I think we're a team that can match up with them a little bit. And they're confident, we're confident. It's been a tough road. I've definitely been watching the ALCS for sure. That's some good ball over there,'' he said.

Consider this an old-school World Series: top names on both sides, many of them facing each other for the first time - the way it was before AL and NL clubs began playing each other all through the summer.

Think of Ted Williams vs. Stan Musial, maybe.

Musial, in fact, might even be at the ballpark next week. The 90-year Hall of Famer who helped the Cardinals win three World Series crowns was at Busch Stadium during the playoffs for **** ceremonies.

Stan the Man and the Cardinals beat Williams and the Red Sox in the 1946 Series. More than a quarter-century later, Williams became the first manager in Texas history after the franchise moved from Washington.

It took a lot longer for Texas to finally reach the Series. Hamilton, Cruz, Michael Young and the Rangers made their first appearance last year, only to get shut down by San Francisco's pitching in a five-game wipeout.

``We weren't very happy with the results, and we certainly knew that we were a better team than we showed,'' manager Ron Washington said.

The Series shifts to Arlington for Game 3 next Saturday. The next day, there will be a doubleheader in Texas, of sorts - St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys, then Cardinals at Rangers.

St. Louis has won 10 Series titles, second most to the New York Yankees' 27. Manager Tony La Russa, Pujols and the Cardinals last took it in 2006, helped by Series MVP David Eckstein.

This year, hardly anyone expected St. Louis to make it this far, especially when it was 10 1/2 games out of a playoff spot on Aug. 25. A sensational run in the last month, plus a tremendous collapse by Atlanta, gave the Cardinals the NL wild-card slot on the final day of the regular season.

The Cardinals did what many fans considered almost impossible in the first round - they eliminated the heavily favored Phillies. Carpenter outdueled Roy Halladay 1-0 in the decisive Game 5, then St. Louis relied on its bullpen every day to beat Milwaukee in the NL championship series.

Jason Motte, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski and the Cards' crew shut down Prince Fielder and the Brewers, capped by a 12-6 win in Game 6 Sunday night.

A resurgent Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday and the emerging Freese got a boost in the lineup from trade-deadline addition Rafael Furcal, one of several moves by general manager John Mozeliak that worked out well.

The Cardinals also got help - some might believe - from a squirrel that scampered right in front of home plate during a playoff game in St. Louis.

The Rangers powered to the AL West title this year and hope to show the Claw, their hand signal for big hits, a lot starting this week.

Texas began the playoffs by beating Tampa Bay in four games and mashed Detroit in the six-game ALCS. Cruz was an MVP monster against the Tigers, hitting an LCS-record six home runs with 13 RBIs.

Closer Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Scott Feldman and two of GM Jon Daniels' additions - Mike Adams and Michael Gonzalez - keyed a bullpen that dominated the postseason.

Now it's on to Busch Stadium for the opener. The NL holds home-field advantage this year because it won the All-Star game, with Fielder's homer off Wilson the big hit. The weather forecast calls for clear skies, a welcome relief in a postseason dotted by rain.

And, oh, about those previous Cardinals-Rangers games. St. Louis won two of three in June 2004, with the Cardinals' lone loss coming when Young and Texas hammered Carpenter.

Carpenter will see a packed Texas lineup, including Young, in the opener.

``I haven't thought a lick about it,'' Carpenter said after Sunday night's clincher. ``I'm excited for our ballclub, I'm excited for our organization. Unbelievable. This group of guys, I've been saying all year long, it's the most amazing group of guys I've been around.''

MLB

Sunday, October 23

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Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bet
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St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers

A total of just eight runs were scored in the first two games in St. Louis, four for each team. The high-powered offenses could get going in Texas, in part because the bottom end of the rotations are now toeing the rubber.

Texas’ Game 4 starter Derek Holland has not gone more than five innings in any of his past four starts dating back to the end of the regular season. Yes, Ron Washington has a stellar bullpen at his disposal, but there is a reason why he is quick to pull the trigger on Holland. The southpaw allowed a total of seven runs on 11 hits over 7 1/3 innings in two ALCS appearances against Detroit.

Edwin Jackson of the Cardinals has not exactly been lights out, either. In two NLCS starts against Milwaukee, he lasted a total of 6 1/3 innings while giving up six earned runs on 11 hits.

But when Jackson takes the mound, St. Louis’ bats simply catch fire. The team has churned out double-digit runs in four of Jackson’s last six outings, including 12-run onslaughts in a pair of wins over the Brewers.

“I was kind of tentative last game,” explained Jackson, whose team is a perfect 7-0 in his last seven starts. “Wasn't nervous or anything; it was just a matter of going out and staying relaxed but not being too relaxed. So definitely I'll come out this game being aggressive from the first pitch.”

Pick: Cardinals

MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at Texas
The Rangers look to bounce back from their Game 3 loss and build on their 9-1 record in Derek Holland's last 10 starts as a favorite from -150 to -200. Texas is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 23

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Jackson) 15.552; Texas (Holland) 16.191
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 23

So much for pitching and defense; over is 5-1 in Rangers' home playoff games, 6-1 in St Louis' road playoff games. Cardinals won Jackson's last eight starts; he is 1-0, 5.84 in three postseason starts. Rangers won last six Holland starts; he is also 1-0, 5.84 in three postseason starts, very odd coincidence. Rangers are 4-2 at home in playoffs; St Louis is 5-2 on road, allowing 11-9 runs in two losses. What are odds that both starting pitchers would've allowed eight runs in exactly 12.1 IP in last 3 starts? Texas better start backing Pujols off plate, or someone in outfield seats is going to get injured by one of his titanic blasts.




MLB

Sunday, October 23

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. TEXAS
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 23

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ST LOUIS (99 - 77) at TEXAS (104 - 71) - 8:05 PM
EDWIN JACKSON (R) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 48-50 (-18.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 95-88 (-21.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 105-70 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 99-65 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 77-45 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 77-47 (+16.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 44-25 (+15.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 51-37 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOLLAND is 19-7 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
HOLLAND is 15-5 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 100-78 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 51-38 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 12-5 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 99-76 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 75-48 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 40-31 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 29-16 (+16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
JACKSON is 8-1 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+1.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. TEXAS since 1997
JACKSON is 2-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 1.383.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.7 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

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MLB
Short Sheet

Sunday, October 23

World Series - Best of 7 - Game 4 - STL Leads 2-1
ST LOUIS at TEXAS, 8:05 PM ET
JACKSON: 8-1 TSR in road games after a win
HOLLAND: TEXAS 10-18 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Rangers aim to tie up World Series on Sunday

ST LOUIS CARDINALS
at TEXAS RANGERS

World Series Game 4 - St. Louis leads series 2-1
First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -180, St. Louis +170, Total: 9.5
One night after re-claiming home-field advantage, the Cardinals can take control of the World Series when they play Game 4 in Texas Sunday night.
Both teams had to tap into their bullpens early in Saturday’s Game 3 and that’s especially bad news for the Rangers as Sunday’s starter, 25-year-old lefty Derek Holland, has struggled in the playoffs. He’s lasted just 12.1 innings over three postseason starts and figures to have his hands full against a Cardinals lineup that hammered lefty Matt Harrison and the Texas bullpen for 16 runs in Game 3. While St. Louis starter Edwin Jackson is far from a sure thing, the veteran is a more reliable option than Holland at this point. The Cardinals are heavy underdogs on the road again despite being 5-2 on the road in the playoffs. ST. LOUIS is the pick, and the FoxSheets have a three-star trend working in the Cards’ favor:
ST. LOUIS is 19-4 (82.6%, +15.5 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 3*).
Jackson (12-9, 3.79 ERA for Cards and White Sox in the regular season) has plenty of experience against the Rangers from his American League days. He’s 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA against them career, but got torched by Texas while pitching for the White Sox back in May (5.1 innings, four runs, 14 base runners allowed), his only start against the Rangers since 2009.
After a quality start in Game 4 of the NLDS against Philly (six innings, two runs), Jackson pitched two shortened outings in Milwaukee in the NLCS. In Game 2 he threw just 4.1 innings, allowing two runs and eight base runners, and in Game 6 he was pinch-hit for after allowing four runs, including three home runs, in two innings. Because of the lopsided score in Game 3, Tony La Russa got to save a portion of his bullpen for Sunday despite having relievers throw six innings.
After a strong finish to the regular season, Holland (16-5, 3.95 ERA in the regular season) has struggled in the playoffs, and the Rangers need him to work deep into this one after using their bullpen for 5.1 innings in Saturday’s Game 3. He lasted a total of just 12.1 innings in his three playoff starts and allowed 10 runs (eight earned) and 24 base runners, including five home runs.
St. Louis had MLB’s sixth-best OPS against lefties during the regular season (.768) and that was with a pitcher in the lineup for the majority of those games. Having Allen Craig in the lineup at DH (1.000 OPS in 30 postseason plate appearances, 1.003 OPS versus lefties in the regular season and playoffs combined) makes their lineup even more dangerous for Holland. Albert Pujols is coming off a performance for the ages, tying a World Series record with 3 HR, 6 RBI and five hits in the Game 3 rout.

Cardinals At Rangers World Series Game 4 Preview
Will the ninth-inning rally to win Game 2 give the Texas Rangers momentum this weekend as the World Series shifts to the Lone Star State, or will the St. Louis Cardinals reclaim home-field advantage in the all-important Game 3 on Saturday?
That question remains to be answered with the third game of the 2011 Fall Classic still pending at press. Texas was a heavy favorite (-180) behind southpaw Matt Harrison in the Saturday night showdown. St. Louis sent Kyle Lohse to the hill at Rangers Ballpark with a 9½-run total.
Should Texas build on the momentum from the Game 2 victory, Ron Washington will be sending young left-hander Derek Holland to the mound in Game 4 looking to take a 3-1 stranglehold in the Series. If it's St. Louis regaining control, Tony La Russa gives the ball to midseason acquisition Edwin Jackson in hopes of taking the 3-1 advantage.
The biggest story heading into the third game was the dominance by the pitchers in the two contests played in St. Louis. The eight runs combined in Games 1 and 2 represented a huge change from how the clubs bashed their way to LCS wins, and the lineups were a bit fortunate to even plate those eight runs.
St. Louis' winning run in Game 1 scored on a sinking line drive by pinch-hitter Allen Craig that fell just inches from Texas right fielder Nelson Cruz's mitt. The Rangers' 2-run rally in the ninth to win Game 2 came home on sacrifice flies and was aided by an uncharacteristic error by Cardinals first sacker Albert Pujols.
Moving the Series to such a hitter-friendly stadium as Rangers Ballpark, and much warmer temps than the first two games, plus the use of the DH in Games 3, 4 and 5 could go a long way to putting more runs on the scoreboard. Holland and Jackson taking the bump would also seem to be a good recipe for an offensive breakout.
This will be the fourth postseason start for each Game 4 starter, and the 'over' cashed in all six combined starts Jackson and Holland have made this October. While the 'over' trend might still continue, something else will have to give since the Rangers are 3-0 in Holland's starts, and the Cards are 3-0 when Jackson has taken his turn in the playoffs.
Holland and Jackson share several more stats besides the 'overs' and their clubs both 3-0 in their starts. Each have totaled 12 1/3-innings in their three starts, and each has allowed eight runs along the way. Holland has served up five homers in his three assignments, all here in Arlington, while Jackson allowed four long balls in his two road starts at Milwaukee in the NLCS.
This will be Holland's first career outing against St. Louis, with Jackson set to make his eighth career start vs. Texas. He saw the Rangers this past May in Chicago while still a member of the White Sox rotation, working 5 1/3-innings and allowing all four Texas runs in a 4-0 defeat as a -130 road favorite.
Ron Kulpa should have plate duty for Game 4 following a regular season in which he slightly favored the 'under' with an 18-15-2 record below the total. One of his 'overs' was here at Rangers Ballpark in late-August, an 11-7 Texas triumph vs. the Angels in which Holland worked 6 2/3 innings and allowed just one run.
Kulpa's most recent action behind the dish was Game 1 of the NLDS between Arizona and Milwaukee, a 4-1 Brewers win.
Scattered thunderstorms are once again in the forecast for the D-FW area on Sunday, with a 30 percent chance in the afternoon before the likelihood tapers off. The 8:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch should find the thermometer in the upper-70s with a light breeze from the south.
The teams come right back on Monday for Game 5 with the same start time, and is slated to be a mound rematch from Game 1, Chris Carpenter for St. Louis opposite Texas' CJ Wilson.

World Series

Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under

1 Texas vs. St. Louis (-125) 3-2 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)

2 Texas (-120) vs. St. Louis 2-1 FAVORITE UNDER (8)

3 St. Louis (+170) vs. Texas 16-7 UNDERDOG OVER (9.5)

4 St. Louis vs. Texas Oct. 23

5 St. Louis vs. Texas Oct. 24

*6 Texas vs. St. Louis Oct. 26

*7 Texas vs. St. Louis Oct. 27

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/22/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1355 Detail
10/20/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/19/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/16/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-­3-­0 0.00% -­1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-­0-­1 100.00% +­500 Detail
10/11/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-­3-­0 25.00% -­1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­35 Detail
10/07/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% +­255 Detail
10/06/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% +­215 Detail
10/05/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-­3-­1 50.00% -­35 Detail
10/03/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-­1-­0 83.33% +­2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1000 Detail
Totals 33-­21-­2 61.11% +6800



Sunday, October 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis +168 500

Texas - Over 9.5 500

NHL PICK:

Sunday, October 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Anaheim -157 500

Anaheim - Over 5.5 500

Cardinals And Rangers Go To Decisive Game 7
This year's World Series started off as a best-of-7 between the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. It then turned into a best-of-5 followed by a best-of-3.
It's now a winner-take-all with Game 7 set for Busch Stadium on Friday (8:05 p.m. ET). Ron Washington will send left-hander Matt Harrison to the mound for Texas; Tony La Russa has not announced St. Louis' starter, but he's expected to hand the ball to Chris Carpenter on short rest. Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson remain two more options for the Cardinals.
St. Louis forced the decisive finale with an 11-inning, 10-9 win in Game 6 on Thursday. David Freese delivered the deciding blow with a walk-off homer to center. Played 20 years and one day after the memorable 10-inning, 1-0 Game 7 of the 1991 Series between Minnesota and Atlanta, Game 6 of this year's Fall Classic will go down in MLB postseason lore as the antithesis to that game in terms of scoring, but equally exciting.
Twice the Rangers were a strike away from their first MLB title, and twice Cardinals batters denied them. The boxscore looks like it came from an All-Star Game as La Russa and Washington combined to use 42 players, 15 of them pitchers. You almost expected Washington to call in Rangers team president Nolan Ryan from the stands. There were 12 lead changes or ties, with Freese's triple in the ninth extending the game to extra frames before his walk-off clout.
A record crowd (47,325) at the latest Busch Stadium saw it all in person with millions more watching on TV. Friday's encore performance, the first Game 7 in the World Series in nine Octobers, will be hard-pressed to match Game 6. Instant classic indeed.
For all the twists and turns this year's Series has taken, one of the more interesting stats has to be Harrison closing as the chalkiest pitcher for any single game. Texas ended up on a -180 line for Game 3 which turned into the Albert Pujols show with neither Harrison nor Lohse making it through the fourth inning.
Harrison was partly done in by umpire Ron Kulpa's missed call at first base in the top of the fourth as well as a throwing error by Mike Napoli who was playing first that night for the Rangers. Washington said all week he was sticking with Harrison for Game 7 regardless of the situation. Wednesday's rainout means he could have gone with Derek Holland for this contest on regular rest, but the Rangers dugout commander instead used the lefty for two innings of relief on Thursday.
Holland only needed 23 pitches to get six outs for Washington, and should be available from the 'pen again tonight.
While Washington remained steadfast in returning Harrison to the mound in Game 7, La Russa has been evasive about who might be his hurler. He said Carpenter told him he could pitch in Game 7, but La Russa avoided making any official announcement.
Carpenter pitched on three days rest for the first time in his career nearly four weeks ago, taking the mound for Game 2 of the NLDS vs. Philadelphia and not faring well (3 IP, 4 ER). He burned through 101 pitches this past Monday in Game 5, a very similar count to the 106 he threw in his final regular season start before his first NLDS appearance.
Colby Lewis, who went through 95 pitches in his 5 1/3 innings in Game 6, is likely the only pitcher not available to Washington tonight. The Rangers are also monitoring two of their hitting stars, Napoli (ankle) and Nelson Cruz (groin), after both suffered injuries on Thursday. They are each listed as probable for Friday's game.
La Russa was not so sure about his slugger Matt Holliday who injured a finger in a slide while being picked off third base in Game 6. The Cardinals bullpen might also be short a couple of arms. In addition to the 59 pitches Jaime Garcia threw to begin Game 6, Fernando Salas (48) and Lance Lynn (32) worked a little extra on Thursday and may not be in the mix for Game 7.
The early MLB odds have Carpenter and the Redbirds -140 with an 8-run total. The last eight times a World Series has been pushed to a seventh game, the home team has won them all.
Crew chief Jerry Layne will be behind the plate on another crisp autumn evening in St. Louis, the thermometer starting around 50ºF and dropping to the low-40s by 10:00 p.m. local time. This will be Layne's third assignment under the mask this postseason, and all will have come here in St. Louis. He worked Game 3 of the NLDS between the Cards and Phils along with Game 1 of this Series. Both ended with identical 3-2 scores.

Carpenter tries to finish off Rangers in Game 7

TEXAS RANGERS
at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

World Series Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
First pitch: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -140, Texas +130
One night after mounting two incredible comebacks, St. Louis hosts Texas on Friday night in the first World Series Game 7 since 2002. David Freese’s 11th-inning, walk-off home run gave the Cardinals a 10-9 win and new life.
Texas has some psychological hurdles to get over after blowing two-out, two-run leads twice in Game 6. But the Rangers haven’t lost back-to-back games since August 23-25 against Boston, rebounding from a loss 13 consecutive times. And they’ll also have lefty Matt Harrison going on normal rest, unlike the Cardinals’ burned-out pitching staff and Chris Carpenter going on three days’ rest. The emotion of Game 6 will play a big role for bettors, but don’t buy into it. As underdogs, TEXAS is the pick.
The FoxSheets show a three-star trend concerning tired pitchers:
Play Against - Any team (ST. LOUIS) - starting a pitcher who is working on 3 or less days rest, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. (111-71 since 1997.) (61%, +51 units. Rating = 3*).
Both teams have major injury concerns, as St. Louis LF Matt Holliday exited Game 6 with a severely bruised pinkie finger and Texas RF Nelson Cruz suffered a strained groin. The status for both players is uncertain, but it would be surprising to not see either of these sluggers in the starting lineup. Holliday has a .419 on-base percentage and 13 runs in 16 postseason games, but is just 3-for-19 in the World Series. Cruz homered in Game 6 to tie a MLB record for most home runs in a postseason (eight).
There have been several hitting stars in the World Series, as St. Louis has four regulars with a four-digit OPS in the series: Lance Berkman (1.127), Albert Pujols (1.109), Allen Craig (1.088) and Game 6 hero David Freese (1.083). Texas only has one, Mike Napoli (1.313), who injured his ankle in the fourth inning of Game 6. But he was able to stay in the game and is expected to start on Friday night.
The home team has won the past eight World Series Game 7’s, which is good news for the Cards. Manager Tony La Russa has used his bullpen aggressively throughout the playoffs, and Game 7 should be no different. The entire staff is likely to be available, headlined by ace Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA during the regular season). But Carpenter has pitched on three-days rest only once in his career, at Philadelphia for Game 2 of the NLDS earlier this month, and it didn’t go well. He allowed four runs and eight base runners in just three innings of work.
Rangers manager Ron Washington never wavered from Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA during the regular season) as his Game 7 starter. The lefty’s final line in Game 3 was ugly: 5 runs (3 earned) over 3.2 innings. But he gave up one run over the first three innings before a blown call, followed by a costly error, led to a four-run fourth inning for St. Louis.
In his previous two playoff starts Harrison was decent in short outings, allowing two runs over five innings each time, both Texas road wins. He threw 90-plus pitches each time, striking out 12 in those 10 innings but also walking five.

MLB
Dunkel

Texas at St. Louis
The Rangers look to bounce back from last night's 10-9 loss and build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. Texas is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 965-966: Texas at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 16.931; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.812
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 28

Carpenter goes on three days' rest; he is 3-0, 3.33 in five starts this fall; he has a 2.00 RA in his last four home starts. Harrison is 1-1, 4.61 in his three postseason starts; he hasn't gotten more than 15 outs in any of the three games.

Cardinals scored 32 runs in this World Series, but 26 of them came in Games 3/6; they're 5-3 at home in playoffs, Rangers are 3-5 away from home; over is 5-3 in those games.Under is 4-3-1 in St Louis home tilts. Redbirds scored 3 or less runs in four of six series games. Texas is 8-1 when it allows 3 or less runs in playoffs this fall, 2-5 when it allows more. NL park, no DH in this game. In this postseason, St Louis is 7-2 if game goes over, 2-5 if it stays under.

After watching last night's game, and I am not rooting for either side, but how could you bet against St Louis after last night's near-death escape?




MLB

Friday, October 28

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. ST. LOUIS
Texas is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas's last 9 games
St. Louis is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home


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MLB

Friday, October 28

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Rangers at Cardinals - Game 7: What bettors need to know
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Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-140)

Series tied 3-3

THE STORY: The St. Louis Cardinals staged one of the top World Series comebacks of all-time in Game 6 to set up a winner-take-all finale against the Texas Rangers on Friday. Texas was one strike away from winning in both the ninth and 10th innings but the Cardinals rallied both times and won 10-9 on David Freese’s dramatic 11th-inning homer. The St. Louis comebacks – and Texas collapses – prompt the first World Series Game 7 since the Anaheim Angels defeated the San Francisco Giants in 2002.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, Fox.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (0-1, 7.36 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (1-0, 2.77 ERA)

Harrison lasted just 3 2/3 innings in Game 3, won 16-7 by the Cardinals. Harrison gave up five runs (three earned) and six hits. He hasn’t gone longer than five innings in any of his three postseason starts.

Carpenter allowed two runs in each of his World Series starts, pitching six innings to win Game 1 and hurling seven innings while taking a no-decision in Game 5. All the runs off him have come on homers – Mike Napoli’s two-run shot in the opener and solo shots by Adrian Beltre and Mitch Moreland in Game 5.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Freese etched his name into St. Louis lore in Game 6 by smacking a game-tying two-run triple with two out in the ninth in addition to his game-winning homer. Lance Berkman delivered the game-tying single in the 10th as part of 3-for-5 game in which he homered, scored four times and had three RBIs. Albert Pujols had a double in Game 6 for his first hit since going 5-for-6 with three homers in Game 3. Matt Holliday left Thursday’s game with a bruised right pinkie but expects to play Friday. Allen Craig also homered in Game 6.

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Napoli reached base five times in Game 6 and had his 10th RBI of the season but also sprained his left ankle. Postgame X-rays were negative. Nelson Cruz (strained groin) also is ailing and left the game a few innings after belting his record-tying eighth homer of the postseason. Josh Hamilton hit a two-run homer in the 10th for his first blast of the postseason and had three hits and three RBIs. Beltre also homered. Neftali Feliz (ninth) and Scott Feldman (10th) were the relievers who blew late leads and Mark Lowe served up Freese’s game-winning shot.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 1-4 in their last five World Series road games.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six World Series home games.
* Under is 7-2 in Rangers' last nine World Series games.
* Under is 6-2 in Cardinals' last eight World Series home games.


UMPIRE - Jerry Layne:

* Under is 4-1 in Laynes last five games behind home plate.
* Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games with Layne behind home plate.
* Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight games with Layne behind home plate.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Laynes last four interleague games behind home plate.

FINAL PITCH: The home team has won the last eight times the World Series has featured a Game 7. The last road team to win a Game 7 was the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates.

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (106 - 72) at ST LOUIS (100 - 79) - 8:05 PM
MATT HARRISON (L) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 76-50 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-33 (+8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 30-18 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 101-80 (+4.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 36-17 (+16.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 100-78 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CARPENTER is 15-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 10-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 101-66 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 79-46 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 79-47 (+18.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 45-25 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 53-38 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 107-71 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 52-28 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
HARRISON is 8-1 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 9-15 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-23 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
CARPENTER is 4-8 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

MATT HARRISON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HARRISON is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.907.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. TEXAS since 1997
CARPENTER is 3-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.38 and a WHIP of 1.677.
His team's record is 5-8 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-6. (+0.6 units)

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, 10/28/2011

World Series - Best of 7 - Game 7 - TIED 3-3
TEXAS at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET FOX
HARRISON: 15-3 TSR 2nd half of the season
CARPENTER: 8-11 TSR as home favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/27/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
10/24/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/23/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/22/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1355 Detail
10/20/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/19/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/16/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1085 Detail
10/15/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/14/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/13/11 0-­3-­0 0.00% -­1725 Detail
10/12/11 1-­0-­1 100.00% +­500 Detail
10/11/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/10/11 1-­3-­0 25.00% -­1225 Detail
10/09/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/08/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­35 Detail
10/07/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% +­255 Detail
10/06/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% +­215 Detail
10/05/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1005 Detail
10/04/11 3-­3-­1 50.00% -­35 Detail
10/03/11 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/02/11 5-­1-­0 83.33% +­2505 Detail
10/01/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1000 Detail
Totals 34-­26-­2 56.67% +4650



Friday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 8:05 PM ET Texas +121 500

St. Louis - Under 7.5 500