Top BALLS Index teams covering easily
By Jeff Gold
ESPN INSIDER
Since the public tends to like big favorites, it can be a risky play for bettors to back them consistently because of inflated spreads. There has been no such problem this season. The BALLS Index -- using data generated by Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com -- measures which college football teams have been the largest favorites this season. Surprisingly, these teams have covered this season at an incredibly efficient rate.
The top eight teams in this week's BALLS Index are 32-8 ATS, a ridiculous 80 percent.
"Books have been getting killed on these teams all year and can't set the odds high enough," Selvaggio said. "Because there are so many teams in the hunt to go undefeated, coaches aren't letting off the gas late in games as they normally would."
Indeed, the top five teams in the Index are all undefeated, and four of the five are at least 21-point favorites this week, the lone exception being Wisconsin, which travels to Michigan State.
The thought of Alabama (6-1 ATS, 8.64 margin of cover) being a 29-point favorite over Tennessee several years ago would have been unthinkable. From 2003-2006, Tennessee (2-2-1 ATS, 0.2 MOC) actually won three of the four games, including a five-overtime thriller in 2003. Then Nick Saban arrived, and the rivalry became non-competitive. Alabama (4-2 ATS, 6.83 MOC) has won each of the last four years by an average of 19 points. It figures to only get worse this year as Saban once again has a loaded team and will take on what is probably the weakest Tennessee team he's faced.
"Even in a flat spot, Saban's teams never let down," Selvaggio said.
The last time Oklahoma (4-2 ATS, 6.83 MOC) traveled to Texas Tech (3-2 ATS, 1.6 MOC), the Sooners lost 41-13. That was in 2009, when Mike Leach had a national power in Lubbock. My, how things have changed. Oklahoma exacted some revenge last season with a 45-7 win and comes into this game as a 28.5-point favorite.
"Oklahoma is actually a great team, not just a good team, and they're being priced like Oklahoma teams of the past," Selvaggio said.
Regardless of how high that spread seems, just remember that this season, it's been a wise move to take the big favorite.
Here's this week's BALLS Index:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Week 8 BALLS Index
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team (AP Ranking)</TH><TH>Avg. line</TH><TH>
By Jeff Gold
ESPN INSIDER
Since the public tends to like big favorites, it can be a risky play for bettors to back them consistently because of inflated spreads. There has been no such problem this season. The BALLS Index -- using data generated by Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com -- measures which college football teams have been the largest favorites this season. Surprisingly, these teams have covered this season at an incredibly efficient rate.
The top eight teams in this week's BALLS Index are 32-8 ATS, a ridiculous 80 percent.
"Books have been getting killed on these teams all year and can't set the odds high enough," Selvaggio said. "Because there are so many teams in the hunt to go undefeated, coaches aren't letting off the gas late in games as they normally would."
Indeed, the top five teams in the Index are all undefeated, and four of the five are at least 21-point favorites this week, the lone exception being Wisconsin, which travels to Michigan State.
The thought of Alabama (6-1 ATS, 8.64 margin of cover) being a 29-point favorite over Tennessee several years ago would have been unthinkable. From 2003-2006, Tennessee (2-2-1 ATS, 0.2 MOC) actually won three of the four games, including a five-overtime thriller in 2003. Then Nick Saban arrived, and the rivalry became non-competitive. Alabama (4-2 ATS, 6.83 MOC) has won each of the last four years by an average of 19 points. It figures to only get worse this year as Saban once again has a loaded team and will take on what is probably the weakest Tennessee team he's faced.
"Even in a flat spot, Saban's teams never let down," Selvaggio said.
The last time Oklahoma (4-2 ATS, 6.83 MOC) traveled to Texas Tech (3-2 ATS, 1.6 MOC), the Sooners lost 41-13. That was in 2009, when Mike Leach had a national power in Lubbock. My, how things have changed. Oklahoma exacted some revenge last season with a 45-7 win and comes into this game as a 28.5-point favorite.
"Oklahoma is actually a great team, not just a good team, and they're being priced like Oklahoma teams of the past," Selvaggio said.
Regardless of how high that spread seems, just remember that this season, it's been a wise move to take the big favorite.
Here's this week's BALLS Index:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Week 8 BALLS Index
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team (AP Ranking)</TH><TH>Avg. line</TH><TH>
Last week's rank
</TH><TH>This week's opponent</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Alabama Crimson Tide (2)</TD><TD>-24.07</TD><TD>1
</TD><TD>Tennessee</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin Badgers (6)</TD><TD>-23.7</TD><TD>3
</TD><TD>at Michigan State</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma Sooners (3)</TD><TD>-22.67</TD><TD>5
</TD><TD>Texas Tech</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Stanford Cardinal (8)</TD><TD>-22.08</TD><TD>2
</TD><TD>Washington</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Boise State Broncos (5)</TD><TD>-21.83</TD><TD>4
</TD><TD>Air Force</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oregon Ducks (10)</TD><TD>-16.7</TD><TD>7
</TD><TD>at Colorado</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma State Cowboys (4)</TD><TD>-16.25</TD><TD>6
</TD><TD>at Missouri</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech Hokies (12)</TD><TD>-13.83</TD><TD>8
</TD><TD>Boston College</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Bearcats (NR)</TD><TD>-13.4</TD><TD>19
</TD><TD>at Southern Florida</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Nebraska Cornhuskers (13)</TD><TD>-13.3</TD><TD>12
</TD><TD>at Minnesota</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
