Ufc 137

CowboyT · Oct 21, 2011

Diaz -105 over Penn
Diaz has a perfect style for a boring decision here over Penn. Penn has a great boxing style for fighters he can get in close range and bang those nasty hooks and knees he has. Nick Diaz will keep him out of range with his straight punches and can defend any takedowns from Penn. I always question Penn's conditioning and motivation for a fight. Diaz has lost one fight in over 5 years due to a somewhat controversial ref stoppage due to a cut vs KJ Noons. Diaz has plenty of motivation to give the finger to Dana, but he's never needed motivation, only mota-vation. Diaz by UD.

Mitrione -140 over Kongo
If it was a hard body contest, Kongo would win every fight. But it's not. The two things that you cannot stop yourself from losing in your old age is your speed and ability to take a punch (Ask Chuck and Wandy). Kongo is 36 years old. He about got KO'd by Pat Barry, who hasn't exactly been a world beater since he came into the UFC. Mitrione gets better every fight and has tremendous KO power. Mitrione by 2nd round TKO.

Siver +185 over Cerrone
I love the Cowboy, I just think Siver is a tough match for him in this fight and I love the value. This is an even fight on the surface for me and could go either way. I just believe Siver wins a fight of the night type of decision. Can't wait for this fight. Siver by UD.

What do you guys think?

JAKEPEAVY21 · Oct 21, 2011

really like Mitrione, leaning Diaz, not sure about Siver..gl

jonnyg4508 · Oct 22, 2011

Diaz has the style for a boring decision here? WHAT?

How many times in their whole careers have a Diaz or Penn fight been boring aside from having wrestlers lay on them?

They are 2 of the most entertaining fighters in MMA. This is the fight I am most looking forward too for the rest of the year.

CoreyCruise · Oct 25, 2011

jonnyg4508 said:
Diaz has the style for a boring decision here? WHAT?

How many times in their whole careers have a Diaz or Penn fight been boring aside from having wrestlers lay on them?

They are 2 of the most entertaining fighters in MMA. This is the fight I am most looking forward too for the rest of the year.

I agree. Both Diaz and Penn come with the intention to fight. Not lay and pray. If Diaz or Penn were to win, how do you see it going down? They both have a solid ground and striking game. I think it's a matter of who can neutralize who and conditioning will play a huge factor. I see Penn losing steam in the late 2nd or 3rd round if it's a grueling start. I wish the GSP/Condit fight was still on the card. I'm not so hyped to see the Kong/Mitrione slug fest.

CowboyT · Oct 26, 2011

I think this fight will be different than any other fight that Nick will be involved in and I think he ultimately decides how the fight plays out.

Diaz is finally allowed back in the UFC after several years out. His bff Shields who was supposed to be the leader of the Ceasar Gracie fight team has had very limited success in the UFC. His first fight back he's given an oppotunity almost no one is out of the gate - a title shot. He ruins that chance and is an embarassment to his team. He comes back to fight Penn, we all know the story. He wins this fight, he gets another shot at the title. It's redemption. His anger isn't focused at Penn in this fight, he wants redemption.

So what is his best way to win this fight? If you were his trainer, and you wanted a win against a highly respected, talented and dengerous Prodigy, how would you fight him? What's the best path to victory? I don't think he wants KO/sub/fight of the night in this one, just a W. This will gain him a title shot and a chance at redemption.

Both of their BJJ from an MMA standpoint is about equal. Diaz has a bit better GnP and top control, but BJ can take the back and sink hooks better than just about anyone. I'd say BJ has a better guard, but that's up for debate. I don't think either guy wants to go to the ground and play a jiu jitsu match. Neither wants to chance the catch.

Neither guy will have a significant wrestling advantage. On the surface, you can say Diaz has an advantage, but his takedowns are neutralized by BJ's balance and hips. Takedowns are probably not going to come easy from either guy.

Now let's talk about boxing. If Diaz wants to slug it out with BJ and go hook for hook until someone falls, that's definitely not the best way to win. I hope it happens, but I don't think it's smart for Diaz especially. The best way is for Diaz to use his reach to pitter-patter from the outside. That's the best way. If he's winning, he keeps sitting in the pocket and using his 1 and 2 to keep BJ out. If he's losing, the 2nd option is probably to take BJ down and try to GnP him. The third option would be to stand and slug. That's the way you beat BJ if you're Nick Diaz, and I think Nick will have what it takes to stand back and jab him to death. For me, that's a boring fight. But it's the easiest path to victory for him if that's #1.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 26, 2011

CowboyT said:
I'd say BJ has a better guard, but that's up for debate. I don't think either guy wants to go to the ground and play a jiu jitsu match. Neither wants to chance the catch.

Neither guy will have a significant wrestling advantage. On the surface, you can say Diaz has an advantage, but his takedowns are neutralized by BJ's balance and hips. Takedowns are probably not going to come easy from either guy.

I quit reading after reading this. Sorry, but this stuff isn't correct in the least bit. I don't understand where you even get this stuff.

Their BJJ games are pretty equal, they are both great. But how in the world does BJ have a better guard? Has he ever sub'd anyone off his back? Ever? Diaz has plenty of times...his guard is waaaaaay more active...and he has way more submissions from his back.

How on earth do you say Diaz has better wrestling? Where has he ever wrestled? While BJ Penn took Jon Fitch down more than once. Took Frankie down. Took Florian and I believe Joe Stevenson down. He actually has good wrestling....it just isn't his first thought while fighting. BJ has better wrestling and it isn't even close. I'd say if he wanted to he could take Diaz down whenever he wants. Not that he will, because he is a fighter and an excellent standup fighter.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 26, 2011

Corey Cruise said:
I agree. Both Diaz and Penn come with the intention to fight. Not lay and pray. If Diaz or Penn were to win, how do you see it going down? They both have a solid ground and striking game. I think it's a matter of who can neutralize who and conditioning will play a huge factor. I see Penn losing steam in the late 2nd or 3rd round if it's a grueling start. I wish the GSP/Condit fight was still on the card. I'm not so hyped to see the Kong/Mitrione slug fest.

I see it being a very close fight. Or at least an amazing stand up fight until someone gets finished. But I do see this going the distance. Neither guy will get submitted. And both have iron chins.

I think Penn is a little better on teh feet. Maybe just because he has better defense. Diaz likes to take too many shots...because he can. But it isn't a good idea when fighting a guy like Penn. It almost cost Diaz in teh Daley fight. So I think if it stays standing, which I think it will...it will be a very entertaining fight.

I think if he wants, Penn can secure some rounds with takedowns. We all know that isn't how he likes to fight. He doesn't like to play the points game. But if he can look for a takedown at the end of a round he can secure it. And I think Penn can take him down if he truly wants too.

As for the cardio aspect. It is a valid concern for Penn backers. But I think it is way overblown. Penn doesn't have Diaz cardio...that is a given. But it isn't as bad as everyone acts like it is. He went 5 great rounds with Sanchez. He went 4 with Florian. These both were at 155 where he cuts weight. When Penn does gas it is the result of a big wrestler smothering him. Diaz is not that in the least bit. Penn could very well tire a little in teh 3rd while Diaz is still fresh as hell. But I highly doubt it will be a huge factor in a 3 round boxing match.

I see 29-28 on all cards for Penn. Winning the first 2 and Diaz winning round 3. I think the odds are spot on and I won't bet a side. I am looking at throwing fight goes distance into a parlay at like -230. Not the -190 is was a little while ago...but I don't see either fighter getting stopped. They only have been like a total of 3 times total between the 2 of them.

I am also a fan of both guys. This is the kind of fight I admire in MMA, while others choose the wrestling/laying/win on pts route...these guys put it all on the line and go for the win. And actually FIGHT. Which I respect.

CowboyT · Oct 27, 2011

jonnyg4508 said:
But how in the world does BJ have a better guard?

Here, I'll do what you do. I'll take a small part of your whole post and not respond to the rest. BJ has a better defensive guard, which is good for GnP opponents. You're stupid if you don't think so, so I didn't read the rest of your post.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 27, 2011

CowboyT said:
Here, I'll do what you do. I'll take a small part of your whole post and not respond to the rest. BJ has a better defensive guard, which is good for GnP opponents. You're stupid if you don't think so, so I didn't read the rest of your post.

Na, that was actually nothing like my post. Did I ever call you stupid? No.

Did I give reasons why I thought the way I did? Yea.

Did you give any reasons? No.

You failed out of this class.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 27, 2011

Give me examples of why BJ has a better guard. Usually a better guard means more active from his back, more submission attempts and finishes, and better defense. He has been beaten up in his guard more than once. Nick Diaz has several subs from his back...while I don't think Penn has a single MMA win from is back.

Now you tell me your reasosn why you think Penn has a better guard. If you can intelligently.

Also, give me examples...don't be afraid of posting links to fights where Diaz uses his wrestling. Show me where Diaz has taken a guy the caliber of Jon Fitch down...or Frankie Edgar. Which fights has he shown better wrestling than Penn? Give me examples....don't just say things with no evidence.

Here is your chance to back up what you spew all over this forum. Or you can just look like a little girl and call me stupid again while running far away from this trainwreck of a thread. Because you know you are incorrect.

CowboyT · Oct 27, 2011

You didn't respond to my post. You picked 3 sentences out and responded to that. The overall point of my post #5 was never responded to or debated. You respond to it and I'll respond to what you want responded to. Also, look at their recent opponents, think about their gameplans for those fights and you'll find your own answers.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 27, 2011

Um....why would I quote your whole post when I am talking specifically about a couple points you tried to make? Not sure why you are getting your panties in a bunch over me not quoting your whole long post? But whatever...you can cry like a kid I guess.

In the end you have given no facts or examples to your claims. You can run away and play the little kid role if you want. Everyone is allowed an opinion. Just don't get upset when I ask you specifically why you have those opinions. You support nothing with facts. Now you want to run away because you have no facts or examples to present.

zeeman · Oct 27, 2011

I'm loving Matt Mitrone. Ex College footballer is improving rapidly. Excellent athlete, smart, and I believe has a hugh heart. Will be more than happy to lay the -140.

Mr_Mark · Oct 28, 2011

CowboyT said:
Diaz -105 over Penn
Diaz has a perfect style for a boring decision here over Penn. Penn has a great boxing style for fighters he can get in close range and bang those nasty hooks and knees he has. Nick Diaz will keep him out of range with his straight punches and can defend any takedowns from Penn. I always question Penn's conditioning and motivation for a fight. Diaz has lost one fight in over 5 years due to a somewhat controversial ref stoppage due to a cut vs KJ Noons. Diaz has plenty of motivation to give the finger to Dana, but he's never needed motivation, only mota-vation. Diaz by UD.

Mitrione -140 over Kongo
If it was a hard body contest, Kongo would win every fight. But it's not. The two things that you cannot stop yourself from losing in your old age is your speed and ability to take a punch (Ask Chuck and Wandy). Kongo is 36 years old. He about got KO'd by Pat Barry, who hasn't exactly been a world beater since he came into the UFC. Mitrione gets better every fight and has tremendous KO power. Mitrione by 2nd round TKO.

Siver +185 over Cerrone
I love the Cowboy, I just think Siver is a tough match for him in this fight and I love the value. This is an even fight on the surface for me and could go either way. I just believe Siver wins a fight of the night type of decision. Can't wait for this fight. Siver by UD.

What do you guys think?

No Arguments here. GL

ksta7090ks · Oct 29, 2011

If Diaz doesn't get cocky and poke is head in front of Penn taunting him like the Diaz brothers do I think Diaz out works Penn and wears him down for a decision. Diaz reach and height adavantage is a huge factor. Diaz will pepper penn and If he stays out of range I think Diaz can pull out decision.

Wish Cerone and Siver fight was even odds because I would take small bet on Cerone. But I am staying away.

Cro Crap gets knocked out in 1st

Jorgenson to dismantle Curran but too much chalk... definately throw him in a Parlay.

Bartman over Griffin for upset of the nite. Griffin is not the same fighter these days and Bart is a tough veteran gets the win. Tyson is not strong at this weight.. think Bart pulls upset!

Kongo Vs Mitrione , Under 2.5 -180. Does get past the 1st. Who gets knocked out is your guess. I can make an argument for both TKO the other