If you have trouble winning in the NFL...

zodiac666

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #1

TEASE 'EM!!! 4 team 13pt teasers ($1.2 pays out $1) almost always win, even if you picked 'em with your eyes closed. I love betting but am too busy/lazy to do much research and very rarely am down any weekend (not as effective with college ball though).

This week (excluding Jags/Ravens which hasn't been played) only 4 teams out of the 24 wouldn't have covered a 13pt teaser! (Titans, Oakland, Rams, & of course Indy where you would've needed 40+pts, lol). I'll start keeping the stats every week but my personal stats on 13pt teasers in the NFL, including last year, is 76% and like I said I don't do much research at all! At the very least make a couple safe bets to cover any losses.

(the lines in NFL usually are more accurate than college which is why 13pt teasers in the NFL are pretty much guaranteed to hit 70% of the time).

 

boatboatboat

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #2

So if 4 of 24 teams didn't cover the 13 pt teaser, that means 17% of all teams don't cover the 13 pt tease.

So if I bet 4 teams, in a 13 pt teaser, and each of those teams stands a 17% chance of not covering, wouldn't hitting all 4 be a sub 50% proposition?

 

zodiac666

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• #3

Ok, good point, you probably shouldn't close your eyes and pick them (48%ish), but with very minimal NFL knowledge you can easily win 70+% of the time (it does happen of course but how often in the NFL will a 13pt favorite lose?). Also, although 20/24 sounds about right I'd like to see what it is after 100 games at least (and some teams are habitually inconsistent which I usually stay away from). Don't even risk money, just write down one 4team teaser on games you really like each week for the next 5wks and see if you lose even one!

 

mokoman

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #4

my vig is to high on them and ties lose.

 

boatboatboat

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• #5

zodiac666 said:

how often in the NFL will a 13pt favorite lose

Click to expand...

Last week about 17% of the time, which means if you bet a combo of 4 teams to cover that 13 pts, you would lose more then you won.

 

zodiac666

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• #6

boatboatboat said:

Last week about 17% of the time, which means if you bet a combo of 4 teams to cover that 13 pts, you would lose more then you won.

Click to expand...

By "13pt favorite" I meant a team that was favored by 13pts (I usually (depends on the teams) include the favorites in these cases so I can tease it down to just having them win. The only spreads near 13 were Dallas -14, GB -10.5, & NO -13.5, Green Bay shouldn't have had any problem covering but they blew it... at least it was on a 13pt teaser though. I didn't have Dallas in my teaser because their not too consistent in my opinion, but would've worked.

And I thought I cleared up the "betting with your eyes closed" comment in the last post? If you don't bet on the worst teams in the league (so that scratches the Rams & Indy, and don't bet on Oakland because their QB just broke his collarbone that leaves 1 loss (Titans, who usually aren't one of my 1st picks each week anyway). Now close your eyes and you would've had an 82% chance of winning (but again, I was exaggerating when I wrote the "betting with your eye's closed" comment).

 

boatboatboat

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #7

This next weeks NFL lines are out, what four teams will you be teasing?

 

zodiac666

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #8

They're not up on Bodog yet, (yea, I know Bodog's uncool). I'm pretty busy/lazy during the week with school and usually make them Saturday evening unless I see some spreads I really like. I do at least check their record for the last 5 games and like to check the injury reports a little closer to gametime (also the amount I bet depends on how the college day went). I'll definitely post my picks for 1 or 2 4team teasers on this thread before Sunday and I'll try and post a tentative bet as soon as Bodog puts the lines up. And without even betting you should pick 4 teams you like as well for the next 5 weeks and just see if you lose more than 1!

 

zodiac666

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #9

Tentatively (if these lines are correct) I like teasing

Ravens -13 over Cardinals
Saints -12 over Rams
Giants -10 over Miami
Lions -3.5 over Broncos

I also like Texans -10 over Jags, 49ers -9.5 over Browns, Pats -3 over Steelers (although Steelers are one that I think has potential, they just don't usually reach their potential but I still like teasing Pats to +10), Bengals -3 over Seahawks.

I might do 2 teasers next week, and this is just from glancing at it, I'll make my bets later in the week but wouldn't be surprised if all these covered teased 13.

 

zodiac666

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• Oct 24, 2011

• #10

What 4 would you pick at this point to tease 13?

 

5teamparlay

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• Nov 7, 2011

• #11

Saints -12 over Rams


Dong --- looking back....

 

5teamparlay

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• Nov 8, 2011

• #12

EVEN the EAGLES dong teaser bettors tonight favored by 8 (closed at 9) lost 30-24 cant cover a 13 point teaser...