The Vegas NFL Power Rankings

The Vegas NFL Power Rankings

By R.J. Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider

All sports fans have opinions, but only bookmakers and professional bettors back their opinions with big money. Each week, the most famous names in Las Vegas sports betting provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are the secret numbers that directly influence millions of dollars of action each week. The Vegas Rankings are calculated using a proprietary algorithm -- generating the final word on how good Vegas believes a team really is, plus insight into which teams are being incorrectly valued by the public's losing bias.


The Vegas Rankings are meant to show what the pros truly think of a team. They're broken down into four categories:



TRUE POWER tells how good Vegas thinks a team really is. This is based on a number from 1-100. True Power (home team) plus Home Field Advantage minus True Power (away team) can be used to project the score of any game.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE gives how many points the pros think home-field advantage is actually worth for each team.

BETTOR BIAS tells you by how many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team based upon illogical biases.

POINT-SPREAD POWER is the combination of True Power and Bettor Bias. It includes Home-Field Advantage to project which team Vegas would favor in any game.


Here are the NFL Vegas NFL Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Vegas NFL Rankings

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>102.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>98</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-2</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>97.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>98</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>97</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-10</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-10</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>90.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Most Overrated and Underrated Teams

<!-- begin inline 2 --><TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Best Team</TH><TH>Worst Team</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>6 or more</TD><TD>Packers (No. 1)</TD><TD>Bengals (No. 13)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 wins</TD><TD>Patriots (No. 2)</TD><TD>Bills (No. 17)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 Wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (No. 15)</TD><TD>Titans (No. 22)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 Wins</TD><TD>Eagles (No. 10)</TD><TD>Redskins (No. 28)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 or less</TD><TD>Vikings (No. 19)</TD><TD>Colts (No. 32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's ATS record and SU record aren't equal. For example, the Minnesota Vikings are 2-6 SU, but 4-3-1 ATS; the Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-3 SU, but only 4-5 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories.


Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 10 NFL spreads using Point Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies this week. That Vikings-Packers spread of plus-13.5? Not high enough.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 10 Spreads using POINT SPREAD POWER

(current spread from home team's perspective)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home Team</TH><TH>Road Team</TH><TH>Current</TH><TH>Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>-5.5</TD><TD>-6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>Pk</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>-1.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>-11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>+10.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>-13.5</TD><TD>-17.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Voters: Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.

After that loss I can not see how PITT is favored at Cincy.... I do not see them winning

I agree with you Dante. I think the Bengals take it to the Steelers this week!

Dante said:

After that loss I can not see how PITT is favored at Cincy.... I do not see them winning

Click to expand...

The good old reverse jinx Dante? puff_>><><>

Dante said:

After that loss I can not see how PITT is favored at Cincy.... I do not see them winning

Click to expand...

I Will Disagree with you there. and Another Reason why they are ranked 13th in the Power rankings.

The Teams that they have Beat are a Combined 16-33 with Only The Bills with a Winning Record.

Don't get me wrong. They are Playing at a Level that Nobody Thought they would Play at. and they are Still beating NFL Teams.

Just IMHO, I think they Hit a "Road Block" when it comes to Teams like the Steelers and Ravens.

Hache Man said:

The good old reverse jinx Dante?

puff_>><><>

Click to expand...

You know me to well hache

So, if reading this correctly..................GB would be at least -8.5 over every team when playing at home?


.............and they would be -26.5 over the COLTS in Lambeau??





WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW

back in 2007 the pats were 28pt favs vs philly and balt (it was close to that) so ya i think indy should be close to 4td's underdog in lambeau....think about it this way...how many would indy get in lambeau if they played in a few weeks in the cold....10 max? 38-10 sounds about right to me...