Week 10 NFL Sweat Baramoter (Teams ATS Success)

The Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer

By Ben Fawkes/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider


What is the Sweat Barometer?

The Sweat Barometer measures how well NFL teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first five games this season, the Green Bay Packers were 5-0 against the spread and had covered by a margin of 4.7 points. Generally, that would make them a good bet. On the flip side, through their first five games, the St. Louis Rams were minus-12.88. That's bad.

The against-the-spread margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer runs every Wednesday (after Week 5) during the NFL season and lists each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), average closing line and sweat margin.



Tom Brady and the Patriots have stumbled ATS, going 0-3 in their last three games. <!-- end wide photo -->


New England Patriots fans should be worried about their team. Very worried.


Yes, they are still tied for first place in the AFC East with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills after Week 9. (The Bills? I know, it's still hard to believe.)


Yes, the Patriots still have Tom Brady quarterbacking their team -- though he has looked like anything but a three-time Super Bowl champion lately.


And yes, excluding Sunday's game against the Jets, the winning percentage of New England's remaining opponents is a putrid .352.



They might end up with 10 or 11 wins and get into the playoffs. But let's not confuse this team with a Super Bowl contender. They are a highly flawed team that is hurting both the fans rooting for them and bettors backing them.

The NFL Sweat Barometer, concocted by Behind The Bets head honcho Chad Millman and Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com, measures the margin by which teams cover -- or don't cover -- the spread each week. Need a better explanation than that? Check out the box to the right.



The Patriots? Well, they haven't been doing much covering -- of spreads or wide receivers. Their defense ranks 26th in the NFL overall, according to Football Outsiders, and is dead last with a mind-boggling 54.0 percent DVOA (remember, positive DVOA is bad on defense) against No. 1 receivers -- only one other team is above 37 percent DVOA. That doesn't bode well for New England's chances stopping of Santonio Holmes this week.



Their offense, though still ranked second in the NFL by FO, is struggling to throw the deep ball and stretch defenses, and has looked pedestrian the past three weeks. Brady has averaged just 6.63 YPA over the past three contests, far below his career YPA of 7.44.



"Teams have adjusted to this Patriots offense," Jay Kornegay says. "New England has no speed and can't stretch the field anymore. Teams know this, and can play tight and disrupt the Patriots' short passing game."



The issues confronting the gambling world regarding the Patriots are threefold:


First, the Patriots are one of the top public teams so they always receive well over 50 percent of the wagers each week. This season, they've received an average of 67 percent of the public's bets every game and have been faded by the public in only one game (Week 9 vs. the Giants).



Second, they are the third-most favored team in the NFL with an average closing line of minus-6.63 points a game, so they have had big spreads to cover.


And third, they just aren't covering those spreads. In fact, they haven't even been close. New England is just 20th in the Sweat Barometer with an SB number of minus-1.88, plummeting from 14th last week. In their last three games, the Patriots are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS and have an SB number of minus-8.



Could the Patriots actually lose three straight games and four in a row against the spread?

<OFFER>

Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports believes it will happen. "After Week 6, road teams in this situation (coming off two straight upset losses) have covered the spread just 39 percent of the time since 1993 (39-61 ATS)," Kulesa says. "But, the Patriots are 37-19 ATS in the Belichick era as an underdog. They are also 46-27 ATS under Belichick in division games and 12-4 ATS on the road after an upset loss. This is a tough game to call, but I still believe the Jets are an elite team, and I like the Jets here."



Here's the Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer:

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Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team (Last week's rank)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 35px">SU</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>ATS/H</TH><TH>ATS/A</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 25px">ATS Margin</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers (1)</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>7-0-1</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>10.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Detroit Lions (3)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>-3.31</TD><TD>8.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals (4)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>5-0-0</TD><TD>1.13</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills (2)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>0.44</TD><TD>6.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Houston Texans (5)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-3-1</TD><TD>3-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-3.11</TD><TD>5.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Chicago Bears (7)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.94</TD><TD>5.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens (6)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.38</TD><TD>4.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers (8)</TD><TD>8-0-0</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>-8.5</TD><TD>3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>New York Jets (10)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-1.25</TD><TD>3.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints (9)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-4-0</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>-6.83</TD><TD>2.28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons (13)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers (11)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>3.19</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins (26)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>0-3-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>4.56</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>New York Giants (19)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>-1.31</TD><TD>0.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers (12)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>4-5-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-4.17</TD><TD>-0.39</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars (16)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-1.06</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings (18)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2.19</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks (20)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-1</TD><TD>6.69</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys (21)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>-2.13</TD><TD>-1.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>New England Patriots (14)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-6.63</TD><TD>-1.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles (15)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.06</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Washington Redskins (24)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.44</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals (25)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.69</TD><TD>-2.56</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans (23)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>-1.38</TD><TD>-3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders (17)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-3-1</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>0.38</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Denver Broncos (31)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers (27)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-3.13</TD><TD>-3.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns (28)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-4-2</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1.63</TD><TD>-4.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>1.19</TD><TD>-4.94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs (22)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-5.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams (30)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>7.25</TD><TD>-6.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts (32)</TD><TD>0-9-0</TD><TD>2-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-10.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The early Week 10 NFL betting trends

ESPN Insider

LAS VEGAS -- The Hilton SuperContest is more than halfway over with nine of the NFL's 17 weeks in the books (more specifically the Hilton SuperBook).


We continue our two-week midseason report with a discussion of how the point spread is the great equalizer. This isn't an easy game. No one bettor or trend wins forever. Everything regresses to the mean. I have more clichés, but I'm on a word count.


Even though the SuperContest is supposed to include the sharpest of the sharp, battling with oddsmakers always brings the overall results back to 50/50. Through nine weeks, the top five consensus plays -- based on the most selected teams taken each week by the record 517 entries -- are 22-20-3 against the spread against SuperContest lines or exactly the 52.38 percent needed to break even against the 10 percent vig in the real world. The consensus of every NFL game played so far is 65-60-5 (52 percent, or just below break-even). All plays by all players are 8,983-8,731-771 (50.7 percent).



None of this should be surprising, as oddsmakers have leveled the playing field after some peaks and valleys early in the season. A lot of sharp bettors like underdogs, and they were 26-19-3 (57.8 percent) after three weeks as graded against the ViewFromVegas.com Consensus Closing Lines that I use on my website. After nine weeks, 'dogs are now 64-60-6 (51.6 percent). Even the home underdogs that I've lauded many times in this column have leveled off at 23-21-2 (52.3 percent).



The most extreme example of a trend regressing to the mean this season is NFL over/unders, and I'm talking about game totals, not season wins. After the lockout, everyone was spouting the clichéd "defenses will be ahead of the offense" mantra and that scoring would be down with offenses out of sync from lack of practice due to the late free-agent signing period. Overs went 12-3-1 in Week 1 and 11-5 in Week 2 for a combined 23-8-1 (74.2 percent), and everyone was fighting in line to bet more overs. After nine weeks, overs now lead 64-63-3 (50.5 percent), meaning those who jumped in after Week 2 have seen those overs go 41-55-2 (42.7 percent).



If you learn just one thing from this column, let it be that when you see a gaudy trend, be wary of jumping on the bandwagon too late. By the time a trend gets discovered by handicappers or the media and gets passed around, it's a good bet that oddsmakers know about it, too, and have factored it into the line. The trend is much likelier to be a loser going forward. If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral.



Now back to our regularly scheduled column.



In the history of the SuperContest, there are stories of people who went on late-season runs to win the title, but usually the champion is a handicapper who was among those who got off to fast starts and was able to resist the regression to the mean as the rest dropped back to the pack.

<OFFER>After nine weeks, Iced Tea and Feral Child have done the best job of that so far, as they are the co-leaders with 32 out of a possible 45 points so far (players get 1 point per win and ½-point per push). Iced Tea is 32-13 and Feral Child is 31-12-2, and that's after both went 2-3 this past weekend. Iced Tea nearly opened up a two-point lead as he had the Steelers minus-3 versus Feral Child's Ravens play on Monday night with the Steelers leading late 20-16. However, Joe Flacco's 26-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with eight seconds to play gave the Ravens a 23-20 victory and lifted Feral Child into a share of the SuperContest lead.



R2K2 went 5-0 in Week 9 to move within a half-point of the lead at 30-12-3 for 31.5 points. Burl Ives also posted a 5-0 to claim fourth place at 31-14. Early-season leaders Sans Souci and Samswins.com2 are sticking around at 30 points.


Where is the money going in Week 10?



Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we usually can see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.


• As all of the above suggests, oddsmakers are making the lines tighter and tighter as the season goes on. Most of the movement we're seeing is around key numbers such as the Thursday night game. The San Diego Chargers opened minus-6.5 at the Hilton, and we've seen some books go to minus-7, but then the wiseguys are buying the Oakland Raiders (plus-7). Some of this is because they think the Raiders are the right play, but others are just taking it because they already have minus-6.5 in their pocket and want to hit the "side" -- if the Chargers win by exactly a TD and they cash one bet and push the other. The SuperContest consensus will almost certainly be determined by what number they put on the card: If they go with Chargers minus-6.5, more will be on the favorite, if they hang 7, more will be on the Raiders (plus-7).



Note for those who don't know the intricacies of the SuperContest rules: If someone wants to use that game, he must have all five of his weekly selections in by the scheduled kickoff time of 5:20 p.m. PST Thursday. Everyone else can wait to submit plays by the regular 11 a.m. PST Saturday deadline.



• The Jacksonville Jaguars opened minus-1.5 versus the Indianapolis Colts and have been bet to minus-3. For those who think that's a reaction to the Colts' lackluster performance against the Atlanta Falcons, that's only half of it. In the advance lines that I often refer to at the Hilton, the Colts were minus-2 for this game last week, so with the Jags on a bye, the adjustment to the "opener" was all on the Colts' 31-7 loss at Atlanta.


• There have been three other major adjustments from the advance lines. The New England Patriots were minus-2 (with minus-120 attached to that price, so it was closer to minus-2.5) last week, but after the New York Jets routed the Buffalo Bills 27-11 and the Patriots lost 24-20 to the New York Giants, that game was reposted at pick 'em. Bettors then made the Jets a minus-1.5 favorite because of those teams' reversal of fortunes.


The Kansas City Chiefs were minus-6.5 against the Denver Broncos last week, but it's now closer to Chiefs minus-3 after they were routed 31-3 by the Miami Dolphins and the Broncos blew out the Oakland Raiders 38-24 to get within a game of the AFC West lead.


Finally, the Chicago Bears' 30-24 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night caused their line against the Detroit Lions, which was Bears minus-1 last week, to go up to minus-2.5 and minus-3 at some books early Tuesday morning.


• The biggest move from the Sunday openers was the Dallas Cowboys going from minus-4 versus the Buffalo Bills all the way up to minus-6, though it has snapped back to minus-5.5 at most places as of this writing early Tuesday morning. The Cowboys, despite not covering in their 23-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks, are improving while the Bills have come back to Earth after their fast start.


• As mentioned above, home underdogs have regressed to the mean at 23-21-2 ATS and were 0-3 last week. For those interested, this week's pups look like the Cincinnati Bengals, Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Falcons and Seahawks. Double-digit underdogs have continued to perform reasonably well at 11-7-1 ATS, as the Seahawks covered against the Cowboys last week, but the Cleveland Browns failed to cover against the Houston Texans. This week's only big dog on the board as of Tuesday morning is the Minnesota Vikings plus-13.5 on Monday night at the Green Bay Packers, although the Cardinals likely will be added to that list against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's still off the board as of deadline thanks to the uncertain status of Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb.


Former champs, familiar names middling at midpoint



Bill Simmons, playing under the alias Simbotics, continues to lead our list of former champs and other familiar names with a record of 24-19-2 after going 3-2 in Week 9. He is just a few games out of the money with 25 points. Last year, Simmons, playing under the alias Sports Guy Posse, finished tied for 15th with a group of six that included Feral Child. The SuperContest's 2001 champ, Bruno's Boys, and 2006 champ, Jarhead, are both at 23.5 points after the former went 3-2 and the latter went 4-1. Defending champ Richard Stand is just a half-point behind them, as he has climbed over .500 for the first team this season at 22-21-2.


Chad Millman, ESPN The Magazine's editor in chief, is playing under the name Dead Money Millman and is exactly .500 at 22-22-1. The most well-known SuperContest alias is Fezzik, the back-to-back champ in 2008 and 2009, but he's struggling the most this year and went just 1-4 over the weekend to stand at 17-26-2. A lot of people are taking pleasure this year in being able to say "at least I'm beating Fezzik," including yours truly. I stand at a subpar 21-24. We both look forward to a better second half.