Week 12 Vegas College Football Rankings (Pointspread Power)

Week 12 Vegas College Football Rankings

By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider


Each week, a select number of bookmakers and handicappers provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are the numbers that drive point spreads and betting decisions that influence numbers worldwide.


The Vegas Rankings are meant to show what the pros truly think of a team. They're broken down into four categories:



TRUE POWER tells how good Vegas thinks a team really is. This is based on a number from 1-100.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE gives how many points the pros think home-field advantage is worth for each team.
BETTOR BIAS tells by how many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER is the combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


If you're looking to calculate the final score of a matchup, you can take True Power (home team), add Home-Field Advantage and subtract True Power (away team). The point of the rankings is to give a little more insight into how those in Vegas think, which is almost always different than the way the public sees things.


Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Miami Hurricanes
South Carolina Gamecocks
Houston Cougars
Georgia Bulldogs




Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

Stanford Cardinal
Texas A&M Aggies
Boise State Broncos
Washington Huskies


Here are the Week 12 Vegas College Football Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>102.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>99.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>101.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>97.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>So. Miss</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>79.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Miami (FL)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>33</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>34</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>78.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>35</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>78</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>36</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>37</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>38</TD><TD>Washington</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>39</TD><TD>Mississippi St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40</TD><TD>N. Carolina</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>74</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Most Overrated by BCS

South Carolina Gamecocks (No. 12 BCS; No. 25 in Vegas Rankings)
Penn State Nittany Lions (No. 21; No. 33)
Auburn Tigers (No. 24; No. 36)
Kansas State Wildcats (No. 13; No. 24)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (No. 20; No. 29)




Most Underrated by BCS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NR; No. 12 in Vegas Rankings)
USC Trojans (NR; No. 15)
Wisconsin Badgers (No. 17 BCS; No. 7)
Florida State Seminoles (No. 25; No. 16)
Texas A&M Aggies (NR; No. 19)




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Projected spreads for big matchups

Lines displayed from home team's perspective and score projected using True Power. Spread projected using Point Spread Power.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>-14.5</TD><TD>-16</TD><TD>-17.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>14.5</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>15</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>Miss St.</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-18.5</TD><TD>-18.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>N. Carolina</TD><TD>-10.5</TD><TD>-17</TD><TD>-17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Texas</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-5.5</TD><TD>-5.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ohio State</TD><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-6</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Voters: Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.