Week 11 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

Week 11 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

By R.J. Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider


Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:



TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).




Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Chicago Bears
New York Giants
Denver Broncos


Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

Philadelphia Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers



Here are the Week 11 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<offer><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 11 Vegas NFL Rankings

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>3</td><td>103</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>97.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>99</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-3</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>3</td><td>96.5</td><td>2</td><td>98.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-3</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3.5</td><td>96.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>97</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-3</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>3</td><td>96.5</td><td>0</td><td>96.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-6</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-6</td><td>Houston Texans*</td><td>3.5</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>94</td><td>0.5</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>93</td><td>1.5</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>3</td><td>93</td><td>0</td><td>93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-9</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>93</td><td>0</td><td>93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles*</td><td>2.5</td><td>91.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>92</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>15</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>16</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>17</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>89.5</td><td>0</td><td>89.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3.5</td><td>89</td><td>0</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>88</td><td>0</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>20</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>87.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>21</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>-0.5</td><td>86.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>22</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs*</td><td>3</td><td>86.5</td><td>-1</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>23</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>1.5</td><td>86</td><td>-0.5</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>Arizona Cardinals*</td><td>2.5</td><td>85.5</td><td>-1</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>85</td><td>0.5</td><td>85.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-25</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>-0.5</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>2.5</td><td>84</td><td>-1</td><td>83</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-29</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>83.5</td><td>0</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-29</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>83.5</td><td>0</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>31</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2</td><td>83</td><td>-1.5</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>1.5</td><td>80</td><td>-3</td><td>77</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">*Injury adjustments</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Michael Vick (Eagles) worth 3 points</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Matt Schaub (Texans) worth 2.5 points</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Kevin Kolb (Cardinals) worth 1 point</td></tr><tr class="last"><td colspan="6">Matt Cassel (Chiefs) worth 1 point</td></tr></tbody></table>

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Most Overrated and Underrated Teams

<!-- begin inline 2 --><table style="WIDTH: 290px"><thead><tr><th>Wins</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team</th><th style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>7 or more</td><td>Packers (No. 1)</td><td>Texans (No. 6)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6 wins</td><td>Patriots (No. 2)</td><td>Bengals (No. 16)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5 Wins</td><td>Jets (No. 8)</td><td>Titans (No. 18)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4 Wins</td><td>Chargers (No. 15)</td><td>Broncos (No. 25)</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3 or less</td><td>Eagles (No. 12)</td><td>Colts (No. 32)</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's against the spread record and straight up record aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 2-7 SU, but 5-3-1 ATS; the New York Giants are 6-3 SU, but only 4-4-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories.


Each week our voters will respond to the one rating that was questioned the most from the prior week.

Featured Rating: Seahawks given only 2.5 points for home field.


"A performance as Seattle showed on Sunday leads most to upgrade a notch."
-- Jimmy Vaccaro


"Most sharps agree that the Seahawks are a team you want to look to back when playing at home and fade when they take the show on the road."
-- "Vegas Runner"


Conclusion: Although typically poor performing teams have a deflated home-field advantage, Seattle's has been increased to 3 points.


Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 11 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies this week. That Bucs-Packers spread of plus-13? Not nearly high enough.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 11 Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects score. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home Team</th><th>Road Team</th><th>Current</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>+5</td><td>+6.5</td><td>+6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>-2.5</td><td>+1.5</td><td>+2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>-7</td><td>-10</td><td>-10.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>Pk</td><td>-1.5</td><td>Pk</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-.5</td><td>Pk</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>-6.5</td><td>-9.5</td><td>-9.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>-13</td><td>-16.5</td><td>-20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>+7.5</td><td>+6.5</td><td>+9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>-9</td><td>-12.5</td><td>-13.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-.5</td><td>-1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>-4</td><td>-5.5</td><td>-5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New York Giants</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>-3</td><td>-4.5</td><td>-4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New England Patriots</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>-12.5</td><td>-15.5</td><td>-18.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

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Voters
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.</offer>

1st time I've read this. Thanks. It reinforces the work I do each week to set lines and compare them to Vegas.

Does this get posted every week?

You can find them each week at pregame.com

Dolphins are not > than Tebow...

patriots and that pass defense at #2.... lol

So how do I use this information. I am assuming you wager on the biggest poitn differential between the power line and the actual line. :think2:

Can you pick one of the games and use it as an example? Thanks