NFL Week 11 line moves
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
As I watched Tim Tebow get sandlot on the Jets last night, I realized that not only was he winning games, but he was also 4-1 against the spread (which is something I am sure he appreciates every time he's on bended knee). Around the same time that I had this revelation, NFL Network showed a promo for the upcoming 49ers-Ravens game. That reminded me that the Niners have had a pretty decent season. And by decent, I mean they are undefeated against the spread at 8-0-1. That means that Alex Smith and Tim Tebow combined are 12-1-1 against the spread.
So then I started thinking, could there be any two guys less likely to be among the league's best ATS past the midway point of the season? Um, yeah. How about Andy Dalton going 7-2? Or Cam Newton being 5-3-1? Even Blaine Gabbert is on a nice roll, putting together a 3-0-1 his past four games (but see the analysis below for why that might not last).
Meanwhile, take a look at how some of the more established stars are doing:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Spread out
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Quarterback</TH><TH>record ATS</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>5-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>5-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>2-7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>4-4-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->I'm being selective here, obviously. Drew Brees is 6-4. Aaron Rodgers is 7-2. On the flip side, not every neophyte is money. Colt McCoy is 2-5-2. But selectivity is not a bad thing. In fact, understanding when to rely on the numbers and when to ignore them is an important part of a betting strategy.
<OFFER>I was reminded of that when I was chatting with Big Al McMordie on Thursday night. Big Al has made a very nice living relying on system plays (I know because I've seen his house in the Hollywood Hills). He has a database with betting stats and scenarios. For example, since 1980, teams that are favored by a touchdown coming off of an ATS win playing losing teams are 100-20*. The database cost $15K and was built two decades ago. Big Al is one of fewer than a dozen guys in the country that has it. A couple of others who have it include Dr. Bob and column regular Sal from Madduxsports.com. However, regular squares can try out a site called Spreadapedia, which I wrote about this past summer. It offers a similar service using fancy pull-down menus and the efficiency of the World Wide Web.
Over the years, Big Al has built thousands of scenarios that he plugs into the database. Plenty don't work and are relegated to the database dustbin. But many others provide fodder for his betting decisions. That doesn't mean he goes through every game, backfills a favorable opportunity, and then bets it. He looks for a line that he thinks may have some value. Then he tests his system to see if there are positive expectations for the games he is already predisposed to liking.
It's called selectivity. Here's a look at five games Al liked and had a system to back up his thinking.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Line move: Falcons opened as 6.5-point faves, currently favored by six.
Big Al says: "I like Atlanta a lot in this game. The Titans ran for a season-best 172 last week at Carolina, but they are still the worst running team in the league for the season. Meanwhile, Atlanta has the NFL's third-best rush defense, so I don't think that bodes well for Chris Johnson. I think Atlanta is in a great situation. Since 1980, when you get winning teams at home off of a home loss, they are 63-40 ATS if favored by less than nine and against another winning team. I like this game because of the system and the situation."
Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears
Line move: Bears opened as four-point faves, currently favored by 3.5.
Big Al says: "This is the most interesting game on the card. San Diego has lost four straight and is traveling, while the Bears have won four straight and are playing at home. The knee-jerk is to play on Chicago given the current form of the two teams. But I think that is a huge mistake. I think San Diego will win outright. This is a system I have been using forever; all it does is win. It had New England over the Jets last week, and before that it had Baltimore against Pittsburgh. An underdog of plus-three or more points off of a point-spread loss as a seven-point or greater fave is 102-59 against opponents off of a straight-up and ATS win, since 1980."
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Line move: Browns opened at minus-1.5, currently favored by one.
Big Al says: "This is just something that has worked forever in the NFL: When a team is playing its third straight road game -- as the Jags are -- it is dreadful. And the team is especially bad if it goes into the third game off of wins. Those teams are 64-108 ATS since 1980. Again, this is a situation in which teams are going in opposite directions: Jax is 3-0-1 ATS the past four games and Cleveland is 0-6-1 the past seven. But you don't want to go with a hot team in this scenario."
Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Line move: Dolphins opened as two-point faves, currently two-point faves. Big Al says: "For me, you look at the line and do a double take. It doesn't make too much sense. I would lean toward Buffalo. If you take a look at how teams have done off back-to-back games in which they held opponents to nine or fewer points - as the Dolphins have -- they are 118 and 160 ATS since 1980. Then that record goes to 14-27 when against an opponent off of straight-up back-to-back losses, as Buffalo is."
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Line move: 49ers opened at 10, currently favored by 9.5.
Big Al says: "The sharps moved it a bit and it's not a play on San Fran, it's against Arizona because of its huge upset win. The Cardinals were 13.5-point dogs against Philly. But when teams win in the NFL as dogs of more than 10, then the next week they are 27-49 ATS as long as they are not favored in that game by three or more points."
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
As I watched Tim Tebow get sandlot on the Jets last night, I realized that not only was he winning games, but he was also 4-1 against the spread (which is something I am sure he appreciates every time he's on bended knee). Around the same time that I had this revelation, NFL Network showed a promo for the upcoming 49ers-Ravens game. That reminded me that the Niners have had a pretty decent season. And by decent, I mean they are undefeated against the spread at 8-0-1. That means that Alex Smith and Tim Tebow combined are 12-1-1 against the spread.
So then I started thinking, could there be any two guys less likely to be among the league's best ATS past the midway point of the season? Um, yeah. How about Andy Dalton going 7-2? Or Cam Newton being 5-3-1? Even Blaine Gabbert is on a nice roll, putting together a 3-0-1 his past four games (but see the analysis below for why that might not last).
Meanwhile, take a look at how some of the more established stars are doing:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Spread out
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Quarterback</TH><TH>record ATS</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>5-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>5-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philip Rivers</TD><TD>2-7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>4-4-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->I'm being selective here, obviously. Drew Brees is 6-4. Aaron Rodgers is 7-2. On the flip side, not every neophyte is money. Colt McCoy is 2-5-2. But selectivity is not a bad thing. In fact, understanding when to rely on the numbers and when to ignore them is an important part of a betting strategy.
<OFFER>I was reminded of that when I was chatting with Big Al McMordie on Thursday night. Big Al has made a very nice living relying on system plays (I know because I've seen his house in the Hollywood Hills). He has a database with betting stats and scenarios. For example, since 1980, teams that are favored by a touchdown coming off of an ATS win playing losing teams are 100-20*. The database cost $15K and was built two decades ago. Big Al is one of fewer than a dozen guys in the country that has it. A couple of others who have it include Dr. Bob and column regular Sal from Madduxsports.com. However, regular squares can try out a site called Spreadapedia, which I wrote about this past summer. It offers a similar service using fancy pull-down menus and the efficiency of the World Wide Web.
Over the years, Big Al has built thousands of scenarios that he plugs into the database. Plenty don't work and are relegated to the database dustbin. But many others provide fodder for his betting decisions. That doesn't mean he goes through every game, backfills a favorable opportunity, and then bets it. He looks for a line that he thinks may have some value. Then he tests his system to see if there are positive expectations for the games he is already predisposed to liking.
It's called selectivity. Here's a look at five games Al liked and had a system to back up his thinking.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Line move: Falcons opened as 6.5-point faves, currently favored by six.
Big Al says: "I like Atlanta a lot in this game. The Titans ran for a season-best 172 last week at Carolina, but they are still the worst running team in the league for the season. Meanwhile, Atlanta has the NFL's third-best rush defense, so I don't think that bodes well for Chris Johnson. I think Atlanta is in a great situation. Since 1980, when you get winning teams at home off of a home loss, they are 63-40 ATS if favored by less than nine and against another winning team. I like this game because of the system and the situation."
Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears
Line move: Bears opened as four-point faves, currently favored by 3.5.
Big Al says: "This is the most interesting game on the card. San Diego has lost four straight and is traveling, while the Bears have won four straight and are playing at home. The knee-jerk is to play on Chicago given the current form of the two teams. But I think that is a huge mistake. I think San Diego will win outright. This is a system I have been using forever; all it does is win. It had New England over the Jets last week, and before that it had Baltimore against Pittsburgh. An underdog of plus-three or more points off of a point-spread loss as a seven-point or greater fave is 102-59 against opponents off of a straight-up and ATS win, since 1980."
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Line move: Browns opened at minus-1.5, currently favored by one.
Big Al says: "This is just something that has worked forever in the NFL: When a team is playing its third straight road game -- as the Jags are -- it is dreadful. And the team is especially bad if it goes into the third game off of wins. Those teams are 64-108 ATS since 1980. Again, this is a situation in which teams are going in opposite directions: Jax is 3-0-1 ATS the past four games and Cleveland is 0-6-1 the past seven. But you don't want to go with a hot team in this scenario."
Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Line move: Dolphins opened as two-point faves, currently two-point faves. Big Al says: "For me, you look at the line and do a double take. It doesn't make too much sense. I would lean toward Buffalo. If you take a look at how teams have done off back-to-back games in which they held opponents to nine or fewer points - as the Dolphins have -- they are 118 and 160 ATS since 1980. Then that record goes to 14-27 when against an opponent off of straight-up back-to-back losses, as Buffalo is."
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Line move: 49ers opened at 10, currently favored by 9.5.
Big Al says: "The sharps moved it a bit and it's not a play on San Fran, it's against Arizona because of its huge upset win. The Cardinals were 13.5-point dogs against Philly. But when teams win in the NFL as dogs of more than 10, then the next week they are 27-49 ATS as long as they are not favored in that game by three or more points."
