Week 13 Vegas College Football Rankings (Pointspread Power)

Week 13 Vegas College Football Rankings

By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider

Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are numbers that literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together are calculated into the Vegas rankings. Four categories tell you what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:



TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.


<!-- begin inline 2 -->Most Overrated Teams by BCS

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>BCS</TH><TH>Vegas Rankings</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>t-14</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas St</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>t-26</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>29
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).


To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power (which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).


Here are the Week 13 Vegas College Football Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 3 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>102.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>98.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>100.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>93.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-12</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-12</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-26</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-26</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-29</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-29</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>79</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>Miami Fl.</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>78</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>33</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-34</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-34</TD><TD>So. Miss.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Virginia</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-39</TD><TD>Iowa</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-39</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER

Michigan Wolverines
Virginia Cavaliers
USC Trojans
Kansas State Wildcats





Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER

Clemson Tigers
Oregon Ducks
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Arizona State Sun Devils





Projected Week 13 spreads



We projected the Week 13 college football spreads using point-spread power and projected Week 13 margin of victory using true power. The table is below compares to current spreads, showing you where possible value may exist.
<!-- begin inline 4 -->Projected Week 13 Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>-8.5</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-7.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>LSU</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>-13</TD><TD>-14.5</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>+21</TD><TD>+22.5</TD><TD>+24.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>-4</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-12</TD><TD>-12</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>+5.5</TD><TD>+8</TD><TD>+8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>+8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>+5.5</TD><TD>+7.5</TD><TD>+8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>-15</TD><TD>-16</TD><TD>-18.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>Iowa</TD><TD>-9.5</TD><TD>-10.5</TD><TD>-10.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>Ohio State</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.