Week 12 Vegas NFL Power Rankings
By R.J. Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Houston Texans
Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs
Here are the Week 12 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 12 Vegas NFL Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-5</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-5</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-21</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-21</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-27</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-27</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>-2</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Michael Vick (Eagles) worth 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Matt Hasselbeck (Titans) worth 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Adrian Peterson (Vikings) worth 1.5 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Kevin Kolb (Cardinals) worth 1 point</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler)
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>7 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Bears (15)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or 6 wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (8)</TD><TD>Broncos (23)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 Wins</TD><TD>Eagles (7)</TD><TD>Titans (29)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (19)</TD><TD>Colts (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 2-8 SU but 5-4-1 ATS; the New York Giants are 6-4 SU but only 4-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 12 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies this week.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 12 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home Team</TH><TH>Road Team</TH><TH>Current</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Lions</TD><TD>Packers</TD><TD>+6</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cowboys</TD><TD>Dolphins</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravens</TD><TD>49ers</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rams</TD><TD>*Cardinals</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jets</TD><TD>Bills</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bengals</TD><TD>Browns</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jaguars</TD><TD>Texans</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+6</TD><TD>+6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Colts</TD><TD>Panthers</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Titans</TD><TD>Bucs</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Falcons</TD><TD>*Vikings</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-9.5</TD><TD>-9.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Raiders</TD><TD>Bears</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seahawks</TD><TD>Redskins</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-5</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eagles</TD><TD>Patriots</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>+.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chargers</TD><TD>Broncos</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-5.5</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chiefs</TD><TD>Steelers</TD><TD>+10</TD><TD>+9.5</TD><TD>+11.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Saints</TD><TD>Giants</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=5>*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Voters
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.
By R.J. Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Houston Texans
Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs
Here are the Week 12 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 12 Vegas NFL Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-5</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-5</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-21</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-21</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-27</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-27</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>-2</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Michael Vick (Eagles) worth 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Matt Hasselbeck (Titans) worth 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Adrian Peterson (Vikings) worth 1.5 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Kevin Kolb (Cardinals) worth 1 point</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler)
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>7 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Bears (15)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or 6 wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (8)</TD><TD>Broncos (23)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 Wins</TD><TD>Eagles (7)</TD><TD>Titans (29)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (19)</TD><TD>Colts (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 2-8 SU but 5-4-1 ATS; the New York Giants are 6-4 SU but only 4-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 12 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies this week.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 12 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home Team</TH><TH>Road Team</TH><TH>Current</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Lions</TD><TD>Packers</TD><TD>+6</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cowboys</TD><TD>Dolphins</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravens</TD><TD>49ers</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rams</TD><TD>*Cardinals</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jets</TD><TD>Bills</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bengals</TD><TD>Browns</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jaguars</TD><TD>Texans</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+6</TD><TD>+6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Colts</TD><TD>Panthers</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Titans</TD><TD>Bucs</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Falcons</TD><TD>*Vikings</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-9.5</TD><TD>-9.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Raiders</TD><TD>Bears</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seahawks</TD><TD>Redskins</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-5</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eagles</TD><TD>Patriots</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>+.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chargers</TD><TD>Broncos</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-5.5</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chiefs</TD><TD>Steelers</TD><TD>+10</TD><TD>+9.5</TD><TD>+11.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Saints</TD><TD>Giants</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=5>*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Voters
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.
