Early Week 13 NFL Betting Trends

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The early Week 13 NFL betting trends

By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
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Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.

LAS VEGAS -- As more and more people become interested in the Hilton SuperContest -- as evidenced by the record 517 entrants this year and more people following the action in this weekly report -- two questions keep coming up: What percentage does the champion usually hit? And what does it take to finish in the money?



The champion usually comes in right around 65 percent to 67 percent and, in fact, the Hilton pays a $10,000 bonus if the champ hits more than 67 percent after pushes are disregarded. In the SuperContest, winning picks against the spread are worth one point and pushes are worth half a point, so, with five plays a week in the 17-week contest, the champ will usually end up with around 56.5 points.



To finish in the money, you need around 51 points (60 percent of the 85 plays). Basically, that means you need to average a 3-2 week every week over the course of the season. If you have a 2-3 week, you better have a 4-1 week to make up for it. If you go 1-4, you probably need to roll a 5-0 at some point. If you crash and burn with an 0-5, good luck overcoming that. A solid 60 percent gets you in the money and then the top contenders obviously exceed that while avoiding the disastrous weeks.



Pagermager is the leader after Week 12 with a record of 42-14-4 (75 percent) for 44 contest points and has built a three-point lead over former leader Sans Souci, who is 39-17-4 for 41 points. Purple Sage has 40.5 points at 40-19-1 as the top three are all above the 67 percent bonus threshold. Texasex91 is in fourth place with 40 points, Feral Child is in fifth with 39.5 points and Iced Tea and Daynamites are tied for sixth with 39 points and are the last entrants within five games of the lead with five weeks (25 plays) to go.



Here are Pagermager's weekly records: 4-0-1, 4-1, 2-3, 4-1, 3-1-1, 2-3, 3-1-1, 2-3, 5-0, 5-0, 4-0-1, 4-1. As you can see, Pagermager has avoided the 1-4 or dreaded 0-5 weeks with 2-3 being his worst score. After Week 8, he was 24-13-3 and tied for 11th place, but then rolled back-to-back 5-0 weeks to move into first place after Week 10. We would usually see a regression to the mean after that, but he's instead gone 8-1-1 the past two weeks to increase his lead. We'll see if Pagermager can coast to victory or if someone can make a run at him the rest of the way.



Overall, the SuperContest field as a whole hovers around .500. Consensus plays in Week 12 went 7-8-1 against the spread and are 82-85-8 in all games. The top-five consensus did go 3-1-1 to improve to 28-27-5, though there were two teams tied for the No. 5 spot (Lions plus-6.5 versus the Packers and Bengals minus-7 versus the Browns) and they both lost, so if you count both that makes the overall record 28-28-5. All plays by all contestants are 12,458-12,329-1,328 (50.3 percent).



Where is the money going in Week 13?



Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.

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• How much does a blowout affect the line? There's no definitive answer, as you have to consider the oddsmakers' reluctance to over-adjust their power ratings off just one game, but then the public perception (positive or negative) has to be factored in. Last week in the Hilton's advance lines (that are posted on Tuesday), the New Orleans Saints were minus-6.5 versus the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers were also minus-6.5 versus the New York Giants. On Thanksgiving Day, the Packers routed the Lions 27-15 as road favorites and the Saints were increased to minus-7.5 over the Lions while the Packers' stayed at minus-6.5.


Then, after the Saints blew out the Giants 49-24 on Monday night, the Saints jumped again to minus-8.5 versus the Lions while the Packers were increased to minus-7 against the Giants. The books are obviously trying to stem the tide of money they expect to keep seeing on the Packers and Saints, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the SuperContestants land on the underdogs at the inflated lines, especially if they continue to climb.



• One dog that the early bettors have jumped on are the Cincinnati Bengals. The line for their key AFC North game Sunday was Steelers minus-7.5 this past Sunday afternoon at the Hilton, but lowered to minus-7 after Pittsburgh struggled to put away the Chiefs in a 13-9 win that night. Since then, bettors have taken it below the key number of minus-7 and it looks like Steelers minus-6.5 is the number we'll see the rest of the week (but grab plus-7 if you can get it).



• The biggest move of the week is due to the continuing quarterback injury woes of the Texans, who had already lost Matt Schaub in Week 10 and then inserted Matt Leinart in the starting role over their bye week only to have him knocked out of Sunday's 20-13 win over the Jaguars. Before that game, with the assumption Leinart would be in the lineup, the Texans were listed as minus-2.5 versus the Falcons for this Sunday's game. After being taken off the board, it was reposted Monday as Falcons minus-2.5 with T.J. Yates now under center. It will take a lot of Falcons money to move it to minus-3, but with the Texans playing well, they should get support as well, so I think the line will stay around minus-2.5, possibly dipping to minus-2.



• The other significant move of the week has been on the Dallas Cowboys, who were as high as minus-6.5 against the Arizona Cardinals in advance wagering. The line re-opened at minus-6 and is down to minus-4.5 at most books. This is all despite the Cardinals' quarterback carousel, as Arizona has at least stayed competitive while Cowboys supporters were probably discouraged by the team barely getting by the Dolphins, 20-19, on Thanksgiving Day in a non-covering win.



• Any point-spread article this week is pretty sure to mention the New England Patriots being minus-21 versus the Indianapolis Colts -- the biggest NFL spread since 2007, when the Pats opened minus-25 against the Eagles and closed at minus-23.5 or 24 depending on where you shopped. The Patriots barely beat the Eagles 31-28 in that game and they went 0-3 ATS as 20-point favorites during their 16-0 regular season. Expect more SuperContestants (and yours truly) on the dog here as well.


Former champs and other familiar names



Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the alias Simbotics, continues to lead our list of familiar names, as he went 3-2 in Week 12 to get back on track with 34 contest points on an overall record of 33-25-2 (56.9 percent) and he's just a 5-0 week from being above 60 percent and with a chance to cash for the second straight year (he tied for 14th last year). Jarhead, the 2006 Hilton champ, also went 3-2 and is on Simbotics' tail with 33.5 points, while 2001 champ Bruno's Boys went 3-1-1 to improve to 32.5. Defending champion Richard Stand has 31.5 points, and the man who chronicled Stand's victory last year in this blog and on his podcast, Dead Money Millman, has 31 points. Two-time champ Fezzik went 2-2-1 and has 27.5 points. The best thing I can say about my season, playing under the name ViewFromVegas.com, is that I'm tied with Fezzik.
 

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