Week 13 Vegals NFL Power Rankings

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Week 13 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

By R.J. Bell
ESPN Insider
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Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:



TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.



To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:


Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:


Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).


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Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers



Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans



Here are the Week 13 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 13 Vegas NFL Rankings

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>99</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>97</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-12</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-12</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>90.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>-2</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-26</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-26</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>78.5
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Michael Vick (Eagles): 1.5 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Adrian Peterson (Vikings): 1 point</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): no adjustment </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 1 -->

The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler).


Most Overrated and Underrated Teams


<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>8 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Texans (t-15)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 or 6 wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (7)</TD><TD>Broncos (19)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or 4 Wins</TD><TD>Eagles (t-9)</TD><TD>Chiefs (t-28)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (t-15)</TD><TD>Colts (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 3-8 SU but 6-4-1 ATS; the Dallas Cowboys are 7-4 SU but only 4-6-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, no team is close to the Packers, while Vegas isn't impressed with the Denver Broncos' recent winning ways.


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Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 13 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the 49ers, Raiders, Ravens and more.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 13 Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home Team</TH><TH>Road Team</TH><TH>Current</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles*</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-7.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>6.5</TD><TD>8.5</TD><TD>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Minnesota Vikings*</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>-13.5</TD><TD>-15.5</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>6.5</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>-21</TD><TD>-21</TD><TD>-24</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=5>*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Voters
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.
 

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