Week 14 Vegas College Football Rankings
By RJ Bell
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are numbers that influence the worldwide sports betting market and together are calculated into the Vegas rankings. Four categories tell you what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>BCS</TH><TH>Vegas Rankings</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>t-20</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>29</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas State</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>t-17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>12</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Week 14 Vegas College Football Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 3 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>102.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>98</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>So. Miss.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>78.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>78</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>34</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>35</TD><TD>Miami (Fla.)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>36</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-37</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-37</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>39</TD><TD>BYU</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40</TD><TD>Cal</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Virginia Tech Hokies
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Utah Utes
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Texas A&M Aggies
Arkansas Razorbacks
Clemson Tigers
Projected Week 14 spreads
We projected the Week 14 college football spreads using point-spread power and projected Week 14 margin of victory using true power. The table below compares current spreads, showing you where possible value may exist.
<!-- begin inline 4 -->Projected Week 14 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Georgia*</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>+12</TD><TD>+8</TD><TD>+10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD><TD>-4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech**</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-7.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>So. Mississippi</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-15.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin**</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>-10</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor***</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>-2</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 4 -->* Georgia gets two points for home field in SEC championship
** Neutral field
*** Assuming Robert Griffin III will play</TD>
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today
By RJ Bell
ESPN Insider
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are numbers that influence the worldwide sports betting market and together are calculated into the Vegas rankings. Four categories tell you what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>BCS</TH><TH>Vegas Rankings</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>t-20</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>29</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas State</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>t-17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>12</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Week 14 Vegas College Football Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 3 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>102.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>98</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-4</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>94</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-15</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>So. Miss.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>78.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>78</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>34</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>77</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>35</TD><TD>Miami (Fla.)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>36</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-37</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-37</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>39</TD><TD>BYU</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40</TD><TD>Cal</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Virginia Tech Hokies
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Utah Utes
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Texas A&M Aggies
Arkansas Razorbacks
Clemson Tigers
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Projected Week 14 spreads
We projected the Week 14 college football spreads using point-spread power and projected Week 14 margin of victory using true power. The table below compares current spreads, showing you where possible value may exist.
<!-- begin inline 4 -->Projected Week 14 Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Georgia*</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>+12</TD><TD>+8</TD><TD>+10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD><TD>-4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Virginia Tech**</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-7.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>So. Mississippi</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-15.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin**</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>-10</TD><TD>-7.5</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor***</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>-2</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 4 -->* Georgia gets two points for home field in SEC championship
** Neutral field
*** Assuming Robert Griffin III will play</TD>
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today
