Monday Night Chaser: Chargers vs. Jags
Chad Millman
Even for sports books managers, bookmakers to you and me, there comes a time to sweat. And late in the day Sunday, as the Packers-Giants came down to the wire, was that time.
Up to that point, it had been a bit of a roller coaster day for the sports books. They picked up some nice wins with the Bills, Bears, Falcons and Raiders, all of whom took a majority of bets, according to sportsinsights.com, and none of whom covered. But they lost on games such as the Ravens, Jets, Panthers and Broncos. The Colts helped them out by coming back against the Pats to cover that historic nearly three-touchdown spread, but the 49ers hurt them by easily covering the two-touchdown number against the Rams.
That left the Packers and Giants. And here's where the lesson in sports book economics comes into play. Bookmakers won't whine about a day in which they split sides with the public. As I've written before, it's the parlay cards that kill them. Casual bettors plunk down $10, $50, $100 or more on multiple teams to cover with the hopes of a big payout. These are cash cows for bookmakers because, as we know, it's not that easy to pick more than one game correctly.
Generally, the parlay card players like to play public teams and they like to play favorites. Sunday that meant Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the Jets. So for all the success books had throughout the day, it didn't matter. Because the teams all the squares liked on their parlay cards kept winning and covering. But the team they liked most was, as Scooch told me last week, the Packers. If they don't cover, it makes a book's day. If they do, the day is lost.
So imagine him and dozens of other sports book managers all over the world in their back offices, rooting desperately for Eli Manning to make that long drive at home when down eight to the Packers. And imagine their cheers when Eli hit Hakeem Nicks in the end zone with under a minute to play.
Now imagine this: A win like that means they care a lot less about how you do Monday. So chase away.
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Chargers minus-3 and a total of 40. Jacksonville money immediately came in, dropping the line to minus-2.5, where it stayed for a few days. Late Thursday, some San Diego support showed up, bringing it back up to minus-3. Most of the books have moved the Chargers to a split line [minus-3, minus-120], avoiding that dreaded 'hook' [minus-3.5].
"This game looks like it will be decided by the kickers, and this 'hook' is bigger than normal. For that reason, most books will continue with the split line and not go to minus-3.5. Expect the line to remain at minus-3, minus-120 and possibly minus-3, minus-130 by kickoff. Those looking for the Jaguars plus-3.5 … good luck fishing. The total has dropped to 39, where it will likely stay, as we expect a similar game we saw earlier this season in Jacksonville."
Prediction: Line will close at minus-3; total will close at 39
Wunderdog from Wunderdog Sports says: "Both of these teams have been a disappointment yet again. Jack Del Rio was playing for his job this year, and after losing three of their last four to drop to 3-8 on the season, Del Rio is gone. How well can the Jags, a team averaging a league-low 12.5 points per game, possibly do with a new coach in his first game?
"San Diego's coach may be looking for a new gig too by the end of the season, thanks to six straight losses. The Chargers are still loaded on offense, so this has to be a game in which they get healthy against an overmatched Jaguars team, right? Not so fast. The Chargers are simply a bad team right now and they'll be facing what I believe is a motivated Jags team at home on Monday night. Norv Turner has consistently underperformed against bad teams, going 16-30 ATS versus teams at .400 or worse in his career. I believe the change in coach will inspire Jacksonville, if anything, as players and coaches look to start fresh on the right foot.
"In the month of December, NFL home dogs coming off back-to-back ATS losses have hit 66 percent against the spread since 1980. This total started low and has dropped a full point. Since Norv Turner took over in San Diego, the Chargers are 24-11 to the over when playing on the road. When coming off a home game, that figure improves to 19-5 to the over. The Chargers' defense has allowed some gaudy numbers during their skid, giving up 27.7 points per game.
"I think the Jaguars' offense finds enough success [Monday] against that defense. While 70 percent of the public is on San Diego, I'm going the other way. I like the Jags in a likely high-scoring game here."
The pick: Jaguars and the over
Chad Millman
Even for sports books managers, bookmakers to you and me, there comes a time to sweat. And late in the day Sunday, as the Packers-Giants came down to the wire, was that time.
Up to that point, it had been a bit of a roller coaster day for the sports books. They picked up some nice wins with the Bills, Bears, Falcons and Raiders, all of whom took a majority of bets, according to sportsinsights.com, and none of whom covered. But they lost on games such as the Ravens, Jets, Panthers and Broncos. The Colts helped them out by coming back against the Pats to cover that historic nearly three-touchdown spread, but the 49ers hurt them by easily covering the two-touchdown number against the Rams.
That left the Packers and Giants. And here's where the lesson in sports book economics comes into play. Bookmakers won't whine about a day in which they split sides with the public. As I've written before, it's the parlay cards that kill them. Casual bettors plunk down $10, $50, $100 or more on multiple teams to cover with the hopes of a big payout. These are cash cows for bookmakers because, as we know, it's not that easy to pick more than one game correctly.
Generally, the parlay card players like to play public teams and they like to play favorites. Sunday that meant Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the Jets. So for all the success books had throughout the day, it didn't matter. Because the teams all the squares liked on their parlay cards kept winning and covering. But the team they liked most was, as Scooch told me last week, the Packers. If they don't cover, it makes a book's day. If they do, the day is lost.
So imagine him and dozens of other sports book managers all over the world in their back offices, rooting desperately for Eli Manning to make that long drive at home when down eight to the Packers. And imagine their cheers when Eli hit Hakeem Nicks in the end zone with under a minute to play.
Now imagine this: A win like that means they care a lot less about how you do Monday. So chase away.
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Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
<OFFER>Spread: Opened at Chargers minus-3, still Chargers minus-3
Over/under: Opened at 40, now 39
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<OFFER>Spread: Opened at Chargers minus-3, still Chargers minus-3
Over/under: Opened at 40, now 39
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Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Chargers minus-3 and a total of 40. Jacksonville money immediately came in, dropping the line to minus-2.5, where it stayed for a few days. Late Thursday, some San Diego support showed up, bringing it back up to minus-3. Most of the books have moved the Chargers to a split line [minus-3, minus-120], avoiding that dreaded 'hook' [minus-3.5].
"This game looks like it will be decided by the kickers, and this 'hook' is bigger than normal. For that reason, most books will continue with the split line and not go to minus-3.5. Expect the line to remain at minus-3, minus-120 and possibly minus-3, minus-130 by kickoff. Those looking for the Jaguars plus-3.5 … good luck fishing. The total has dropped to 39, where it will likely stay, as we expect a similar game we saw earlier this season in Jacksonville."
Prediction: Line will close at minus-3; total will close at 39
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Wunderdog from Wunderdog Sports says: "Both of these teams have been a disappointment yet again. Jack Del Rio was playing for his job this year, and after losing three of their last four to drop to 3-8 on the season, Del Rio is gone. How well can the Jags, a team averaging a league-low 12.5 points per game, possibly do with a new coach in his first game?
"San Diego's coach may be looking for a new gig too by the end of the season, thanks to six straight losses. The Chargers are still loaded on offense, so this has to be a game in which they get healthy against an overmatched Jaguars team, right? Not so fast. The Chargers are simply a bad team right now and they'll be facing what I believe is a motivated Jags team at home on Monday night. Norv Turner has consistently underperformed against bad teams, going 16-30 ATS versus teams at .400 or worse in his career. I believe the change in coach will inspire Jacksonville, if anything, as players and coaches look to start fresh on the right foot.
"In the month of December, NFL home dogs coming off back-to-back ATS losses have hit 66 percent against the spread since 1980. This total started low and has dropped a full point. Since Norv Turner took over in San Diego, the Chargers are 24-11 to the over when playing on the road. When coming off a home game, that figure improves to 19-5 to the over. The Chargers' defense has allowed some gaudy numbers during their skid, giving up 27.7 points per game.
"I think the Jaguars' offense finds enough success [Monday] against that defense. While 70 percent of the public is on San Diego, I'm going the other way. I like the Jags in a likely high-scoring game here."
