Pre-bowls Vegas College Football Rankings
By RJ Bell
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are numbers that influence the worldwide sports betting market and together are calculated into the Vegas rankings. Four categories tell you what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>BCS</TH><TH>Vegas Rankings</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas State</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>t-17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>t-22</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Southern Miss</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>28</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Vegas College Football Rankings as we head into bowl season:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 3 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>98</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>93.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>So. Miss</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-31</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-31</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Miami Fl.</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-38</TD><TD>BYU</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-38</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40</TD><TD>No. Illinois</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Clemson Tigers
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Houston Cougars
Virginia Tech Hokies
Oklahoma Sooners
Next week we'll be adding point spread projections on all Bowl Games using Vegas Rankings.
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today
By RJ Bell
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are numbers that influence the worldwide sports betting market and together are calculated into the Vegas rankings. Four categories tell you what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team without any justifiable reason.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: True power plus bettor bias.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Most Overrated Teams by BCS
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>BCS</TH><TH>Vegas Rankings</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas State</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>t-17</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>t-22</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Penn State</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Southern Miss</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>28</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->To calculate the projected margin of victory for any matchup:
Take true power (home team), ADD home-field advantage and SUBTRACT true power (away team).
To calculate a the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the true power with point-spread power, which includes bettor bias, just like the actual Vegas line does.
Here are the Vegas College Football Rankings as we head into bowl season:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 3 -->Pregame.com's Vegas College Football Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>LSU</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Alabama</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>98</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>99.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Oklahoma St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Oregon</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Stanford</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>93.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>93.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Oklahoma</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Boise St.</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>USC</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Arkansas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Georgia</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>TCU</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Michigan</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Michigan St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Kansas St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-17</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Florida St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>S. Carolina</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Missouri</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Baylor</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-22</TD><TD>Clemson</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Texas A&M</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Nebraska</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Texas</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>W. Virginia</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>So. Miss</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Ohio St.</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>80</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Penn St.</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>78</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-31</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-31</TD><TD>Tulsa</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>77.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>77.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Georgia Tech</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Florida</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-32</TD><TD>Utah</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Arizona St.</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-36</TD><TD>Miami Fl.</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-38</TD><TD>BYU</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-38</TD><TD>Auburn</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40</TD><TD>No. Illinois</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>74.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>74.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Biggest improvement -- TRUE POWER
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Clemson Tigers
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Biggest drop -- TRUE POWER
Houston Cougars
Virginia Tech Hokies
Oklahoma Sooners
Next week we'll be adding point spread projections on all Bowl Games using Vegas Rankings.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today
