UFC 140 thoughts?

ksta7090ks · Dec 5, 2011

Any thoughts on this Saturdays card?

Heavy chalk on some of these fights but Abersole -125 vs Claude Patrick is a nice close to even odds.

Any thoughts? I know nothing about the Canadian Patrick but have seen Abersole many times.

How do they match up style wise?:think2: puncher vs wrestling

zeeman · Dec 6, 2011

Parlay Jon Jones with Mark Hommerdink pays around 3/5. Pretty sure both sides hit!

I think Tito +170 has a nice shot to beat little nog!

bronaab · Dec 6, 2011

I may parlay ward (boxing) and Jones. Not a great payout though, so might just lay off. Can't see either losing as they are both far better athletes than their opponents. Will look at UFC undercard this week and wait until after weigh ins to make any picks

ksta7090ks · Dec 6, 2011

I went back and watched the little Nog and Phil Davis fight and Nog really stuffed alot of take downs for most of 1st and 2nd rounds. A young solid wrestler in Davis finnally got his takedowns in the 3rd. I am just not sure a 36yr old Tito can take down Nog? So if this remains standing which I think it will I see little Nog as a better striker. Davis also used alot of leg kicks to wear down Nog. Just think Tito expends a ton of energy trying to take down Nog and gases a bit. I see a little Nog TKO in 3rd.

ksta7090ks · Dec 6, 2011

Does anybody have vido link to Claude patricks UFC fight with Daniel Roberts or James Wilkes. I have googled this thing to death and can not fine one working link.

Crassus · Dec 7, 2011

If Ebersole keeps wrestling and is able to take advantage of Patricks iffy TDD-then we got ourselves a winner but, if he tries to trade with Patrick then Patrick takes the UD. I'd say put the money on the underdog because it's a real pick-em fight, no real way to choose the right one.

I got

Machida over Jones

Mir over Big Nog

Lil Nog over Tito

Jung over Hominick

Patrick over Ebersole

ANOTHERDAY · Dec 7, 2011

Machida +375 :103631605

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

Crassus said:
If Ebersole keeps wrestling and is able to take advantage of Patricks iffy TDD-then we got ourselves a winner but, if he tries to trade with Patrick then Patrick takes the UD. I'd say put the money on the underdog because it's a real pick-em fight, no real way to choose the right one.

I got

Machida over Jones

Mir over Big Nog

Lil Nog over Tito

Jung over Hominick

Patrick over Ebersole

WoW... I thought Abersole has the significant striking over patrick.

Jung over the machine.. really. Lot of chalk so I am staying away.

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

ANOTHERDAY? said:
Machida +375

I like Machida for my underdog bet on this card. Jones 4 fights this year and Jones has never faced anybody like him

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

I am going back and forth on Tito. fight. He beats Bader and then he almost submits Rashard Evans. And Tito took the Evans fight on 2 week notice.

Little Nog at 35 seems to be less and less every fight.

This is a Toss up. Tito really had great energy last 2 fights and for a +170 dog I think he has a chance to win a decison.

bronaab · Dec 7, 2011

ksta7090ks said:
I like Machida for my underdog bet on this card. Jones 4 fights this year and Jones has never faced anybody like him

Jones had 4 fights this year but they were all easy for him. He took little to no damage in all of them. He's also just 24. I wouldn't factor that at all into my play. Just can't see how Machida's style can matchup well against someone with the length of Jones. Machida is good at countering, and then moving out of the pocket. I think Jones MAY get countered, and his chin hasn't been tested, but he'll catch Machida retreating with those long limbs. Machida's countering is also negated by the fact that Jones throws 3,4,5 strike combos, much like Shogun did to Machida. I think you're just wasting your money trying to cash with Machida in this fight, barring a one-punch KO.

JakeT. · Dec 7, 2011

Bet on Patrick by decision if you like him to win. I see a 5% chance he wins by stopping Ebersole. Guy has an iron chin and is nearly impossible to tap.

I'm not saying who I think wins the fight, but I don't see Patrick finishing if he gets the W.

JakeT. · Dec 7, 2011

Patrick is also what I'd call a technical fighter. He knows how to end fights but he's comfortable keeping position and winning rounds as opposed to taking chances that could put him in trouble.

jonnyg4508 · Dec 7, 2011

Bets value in my mind on this card is Ebersole.

I like Bones and Hominick in Parlays, but damn tons of juice.

Also, loves K-Sos, I think he wins this fight all day and twice on Saturdays, but didn't expect that sort of line. Igor comingh of a TKO knee win, I figured catch K-Sos at -180. It did start at -200 however but shot up quick.

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

If anybody has any of Patrick's UFC fight video I would be very interested in disecting his fight game. Abersole is just so unorthodox and his elbows and striking is underated IMO. I loved how he stayed poised in the HAllman fight and escaped some of those submissions attempts to reverse and do some serious ground and pound.

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

bronaab said:
Jones had 4 fights this year but they were all easy for him. He took little to no damage in all of them. He's also just 24. I wouldn't factor that at all into my play. Just can't see how Machida's style can matchup well against someone with the length of Jones. Machida is good at countering, and then moving out of the pocket. I think Jones MAY get countered, and his chin hasn't been tested, but he'll catch Machida retreating with those long limbs. Machida's countering is also negated by the fact that Jones throws 3,4,5 strike combos, much like Shogun did to Machida. I think you're just wasting your money trying to cash with Machida in this fight, barring a one-punch KO.

Agreed but at 24... Jones could be getting alittle high and soft from his instant celebrity. This guy seems to be everywhere today with comercials and endorsements. Just never know....

jonnyg4508 · Dec 7, 2011

^

To me he may seem like a doosh and full of himself on camera. But I know come time to fight he is all business. He is so calm and focused. You don't just calmly run through Rampage and Shogun. He takes his stuff serious and comes from a serious camp (jacksons).

Machida likes to fight at a distance. Well that is hard against a guy with almost a foot reach advantage.

I think like Anderson and GSP....anyone betting against him for the next several fights is just wasting money.

The scary thing is he is 24 and only maturing and getting better each fight.

Crassus · Dec 7, 2011

ksta7090ks said:
WoW... I thought Abersole has the significant striking over patrick.

Jung over the machine.. really. Lot of chalk so I am staying away.

I wouldn't say Ebersole has a striking advantage, Patrick is first and foremost a striker though he was getting hurt by body kicks by Roberts. I PM'ed you a vid of Patricks fight with Roberts.
I have Jung over Hominick because I think after the Roop KO and the Garcia submission he'll have more confidence in his ground game and go for takedowns over standing with a kick boxer of Hominicks ability. Regardless-I think Hominicks line is absurd so Jung's by biggest bet overall.

As for Nog-Tito had good energy but not as much as Mr Wonderful against Nog and Nog was doing real well. I think Nog takes a clear cut decision, losing the first round but taking advantage of Cardio the next 2.

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

Crassus said:
I wouldn't say Ebersole has a striking advantage, Patrick is first and foremost a striker though he was getting hurt by body kicks by Roberts. I PM'ed you a vid of Patricks fight with Roberts.
I have Jung over Hominick because I think after the Roop KO and the Garcia submission he'll have more confidence in his ground game and go for takedowns over standing with a kick boxer of Hominicks ability. Regardless-I think Hominicks line is absurd so Jung's by biggest bet overall.

As for Nog-Tito had good energy but not as much as Mr Wonderful against Nog and Nog was doing real well. I think Nog takes a clear cut decision, losing the first round but taking advantage of Cardio the next 2.

I just saw the video of the Patrick and Roberts fight. Not too impressed with Patrick. Patrick is quick, has good cardio and good take downs. Roberts gased in that fight and Patrick still couldn't finish anything or do any real good ground and pound. I believe Abersole has fought at heavyweight and light heavy weight before and I see Abersole as the much stronger fighter. Abersole also takes advantage when he has someone hurt. Patrick did alot of swimming around on the ground and really couldn't control a gased Roberts. I think the experience, strength and overall game of Abersole wins it here.

ksta7090ks · Dec 7, 2011

That Homick and JUNG line is BS. -400 is BS.. I see Mark as a 2 to 1 favorite but thats it.

UFC 140 thoughts?

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