The early Week 14 NFL betting trends
By Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.
LAS VEGAS -- Pagermager is proving to be elusive in more ways than one. Pagermager is the alias of the leader of the famed Hilton SuperContest leader and is 46-15-4 (75.4 percent) against the spread through 13 weeks of the 17-week NFL season. He took over the lead after back-to-back 5-0 marks in Weeks 9 and 10 and has gone 12-2-1 since, so he's 22-2-1 (91.7 percent) the past five weeks as he's opened up a four-game lead over his nearest competitors with four weeks to play.
Last Tuesday, I reached out to Jay Kornegay, the Hilton's VP of race & sports book operations, to try and contact Pagermager for an interview. The Hilton allows entrants to use aliases in the contest standings and doesn't release their identities without permission. After talking with Pagermager, Kornegay texted me back to say: "Pagermager declined. Nice guy. Just not now. After season, yes."
OK, so we learned that Pagermager is male, but that was all. I was disappointed, but I totally understand his reluctance to be interviewed at this time. After all, I featured former leader Sans Souci after Week 6 and they proceeded to go 2-3 the next week to lose the lead and 1-4 the following week.
The Sans Souci team has recovered from that nicely to be at 42-19-4 for 44 contest points to be in a second-place tie with Texasex91, but they probably still blame that interview for bad karma.
So, I was a little surprised Monday when Kornegay called to say Pagermager had a change of heart and would be calling me within the half hour. He had gone 4-0 with his plays in Week 13 (Seahawks on Thursday night, Titans, Chiefs and Cardinals -- all underdogs that won their games outright) to build that four-game lead and had the Jaguars on "Monday Night Football "to potentially open up a five-game advantage.
No call came.
And the Jaguars lost on Monday night, so I'm not holding my breath over that interview.
Where is the money going in Week 14?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>
• In the Thursday night game, the Pittsburgh Steelers are minus-14 versus the Cleveland Browns. No surprise there, as the Steelers have won and covered three straight games while the Browns have continued to struggle. The advance line (which the Hilton puts up on Tuesday of the previous week) had this as Steelers minus-11.5, but it was reposted at minus -13 on Sunday after the Steelers routed the Bengals and the Browns were rolled by the Baltimore Ravens. Early bettors have continued to take the Steelers and fade the Browns (and I see this as the least likely of the big underdogs to cover this week).
• On Sunday afternoon, after the Oakland Raiders were blown out by the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers rallied to beat the New York Giants, the Packers were posted as a 13-point favorites over the Raiders in Week 14. Early bettors have since pounded the line down to 11. The Raiders are still 7-4-1 against the spread this year and worthy of some support, but it's been more of a play against the Packers, who are 12-0 overall and a still respectable 8-4 ATS, but they are 3-4 ATS when laying seven points or more, including the non-covering 38-35 win over the Giants.
• That performance by the Giants has also impacted their next game at Dallas on Sunday night. In advance wagering last week, the Cowboys were minus-6, though it was bet down to minus-5. After the Giants-Packers game on Sunday (and coupled with the Cowboys' loss at Arizona), the line was put back up at Cowboys minus-4, only to have it bet down further. As of this writing, half the books in Vegas have it at minus-3.5, with the rest having gone down to minus-3 with heavier juice on the Cowboys minus-3 and the Giants plus-3.5.
• Eagles-Dolphins. Oh, how their fortunes have changed. The Dream Team has been a nightmare and the Dolphins have covered six straight games, with four outright wins, since their loss to Broncos in Week 6 (which doesn't look so bad now). Early last week, the line was Dolphins minus-1, but after the Eagles lost to the Seahawks last Thursday and the Dolphins routed the Raiders on Sunday, it was adjusted to minus-3 and it appears headed to minus-3.5.
• Speaking of the Broncos, they're favored for the first time since Week 2. The advance line last week was Broncos minus-2 versus the Bears, but after the Tebows rallied to beat the Vikings in overtime and the Bears lost to the Chiefs, it was adjusted to Broncos minus-3 and is now looking like a solid minus-3.5.
Former champs and other familiar names
We sound like a broken records (though records are made to be broken!), but Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the alias Simbotics, continues to lead our list of familiar names, as he went 4-1 in Week 13 to improve to 37-26-2 for 38 contest points. He basically needs to go 13-7 over the final four weeks to get to the 51-point mark (60 percent out of the 85 contest plays over the 17-week season) to finish in the money for the second straight year. He has put some cushion between himself and the past champions on our list, as 2001 champ Bruno's Boys and 2006 winner Jarhead are both at 35.5 points -- both would need to go about 15-4-1 the rest of the way just to cash -- while defending champ Richard Stand is at 34.5 points and two-time winner Fezzik is at 30.5 points and would have to go 20-0 and get some help. The members of this blog playing in the SuperContest both went 3-2 in Week 13, but Dead Money Millman leads my ViewFromVegas.com entry 34 to 30.5. I need to make up an average of a game a week to catch him.
By Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.
LAS VEGAS -- Pagermager is proving to be elusive in more ways than one. Pagermager is the alias of the leader of the famed Hilton SuperContest leader and is 46-15-4 (75.4 percent) against the spread through 13 weeks of the 17-week NFL season. He took over the lead after back-to-back 5-0 marks in Weeks 9 and 10 and has gone 12-2-1 since, so he's 22-2-1 (91.7 percent) the past five weeks as he's opened up a four-game lead over his nearest competitors with four weeks to play.
Last Tuesday, I reached out to Jay Kornegay, the Hilton's VP of race & sports book operations, to try and contact Pagermager for an interview. The Hilton allows entrants to use aliases in the contest standings and doesn't release their identities without permission. After talking with Pagermager, Kornegay texted me back to say: "Pagermager declined. Nice guy. Just not now. After season, yes."
OK, so we learned that Pagermager is male, but that was all. I was disappointed, but I totally understand his reluctance to be interviewed at this time. After all, I featured former leader Sans Souci after Week 6 and they proceeded to go 2-3 the next week to lose the lead and 1-4 the following week.
The Sans Souci team has recovered from that nicely to be at 42-19-4 for 44 contest points to be in a second-place tie with Texasex91, but they probably still blame that interview for bad karma.
So, I was a little surprised Monday when Kornegay called to say Pagermager had a change of heart and would be calling me within the half hour. He had gone 4-0 with his plays in Week 13 (Seahawks on Thursday night, Titans, Chiefs and Cardinals -- all underdogs that won their games outright) to build that four-game lead and had the Jaguars on "Monday Night Football "to potentially open up a five-game advantage.
No call came.
And the Jaguars lost on Monday night, so I'm not holding my breath over that interview.
Where is the money going in Week 14?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>
• In the Thursday night game, the Pittsburgh Steelers are minus-14 versus the Cleveland Browns. No surprise there, as the Steelers have won and covered three straight games while the Browns have continued to struggle. The advance line (which the Hilton puts up on Tuesday of the previous week) had this as Steelers minus-11.5, but it was reposted at minus -13 on Sunday after the Steelers routed the Bengals and the Browns were rolled by the Baltimore Ravens. Early bettors have continued to take the Steelers and fade the Browns (and I see this as the least likely of the big underdogs to cover this week).
• On Sunday afternoon, after the Oakland Raiders were blown out by the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers rallied to beat the New York Giants, the Packers were posted as a 13-point favorites over the Raiders in Week 14. Early bettors have since pounded the line down to 11. The Raiders are still 7-4-1 against the spread this year and worthy of some support, but it's been more of a play against the Packers, who are 12-0 overall and a still respectable 8-4 ATS, but they are 3-4 ATS when laying seven points or more, including the non-covering 38-35 win over the Giants.
• That performance by the Giants has also impacted their next game at Dallas on Sunday night. In advance wagering last week, the Cowboys were minus-6, though it was bet down to minus-5. After the Giants-Packers game on Sunday (and coupled with the Cowboys' loss at Arizona), the line was put back up at Cowboys minus-4, only to have it bet down further. As of this writing, half the books in Vegas have it at minus-3.5, with the rest having gone down to minus-3 with heavier juice on the Cowboys minus-3 and the Giants plus-3.5.
• Eagles-Dolphins. Oh, how their fortunes have changed. The Dream Team has been a nightmare and the Dolphins have covered six straight games, with four outright wins, since their loss to Broncos in Week 6 (which doesn't look so bad now). Early last week, the line was Dolphins minus-1, but after the Eagles lost to the Seahawks last Thursday and the Dolphins routed the Raiders on Sunday, it was adjusted to minus-3 and it appears headed to minus-3.5.
• Speaking of the Broncos, they're favored for the first time since Week 2. The advance line last week was Broncos minus-2 versus the Bears, but after the Tebows rallied to beat the Vikings in overtime and the Bears lost to the Chiefs, it was adjusted to Broncos minus-3 and is now looking like a solid minus-3.5.
Former champs and other familiar names
We sound like a broken records (though records are made to be broken!), but Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the alias Simbotics, continues to lead our list of familiar names, as he went 4-1 in Week 13 to improve to 37-26-2 for 38 contest points. He basically needs to go 13-7 over the final four weeks to get to the 51-point mark (60 percent out of the 85 contest plays over the 17-week season) to finish in the money for the second straight year. He has put some cushion between himself and the past champions on our list, as 2001 champ Bruno's Boys and 2006 winner Jarhead are both at 35.5 points -- both would need to go about 15-4-1 the rest of the way just to cash -- while defending champ Richard Stand is at 34.5 points and two-time winner Fezzik is at 30.5 points and would have to go 20-0 and get some help. The members of this blog playing in the SuperContest both went 3-2 in Week 13, but Dead Money Millman leads my ViewFromVegas.com entry 34 to 30.5. I need to make up an average of a game a week to catch him.
