Week 14 Vegas NFL Power Rankings
By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Here are the Week 14 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 14 Vegas NFL Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>97</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>97.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-8</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-8</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>90.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Bucs</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jags</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Josh Freeman: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Christian Ponder: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Sam Bradford: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Michael Vick: 1.5 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>A.J. Feeley: 1 point </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Adrian Peterson: 1 point</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>9 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Texans (t-11)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 or 8 wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (7)</TD><TD>Bears (t-19)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or 6 Wins</TD><TD>Giants (10)</TD><TD>Chiefs (t-28)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (13)</TD><TD>Colts (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, though no team is close to the Packers, Vegas is giving love to the surging Miami Dolphins who impressed again this past weekend.
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 14 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Ravens, Jets, Patriots and more.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 14 NFL Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Steelers</TD><TD>Browns</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-14.5</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravens</TD><TD>Colts</TD><TD>-16.5</TD><TD>-18</TD><TD>-19.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bengals</TD><TD>Texans</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Packers</TD><TD>Raiders</TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jets</TD><TD>Chiefs</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>-11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lions</TD><TD>Vikings</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Titans</TD><TD>Saints</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dolphins</TD><TD>Eagles</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Redskins</TD><TD>Patriots</TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>+9.5</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Panthers</TD><TD>Falcons</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jaguars</TD><TD>Bucs*</TD><TD>+1</TD><TD>+1</TD><TD>+1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cardinals</TD><TD>49ers</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+4.5</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Broncos</TD><TD>Bears</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chargers</TD><TD>Bills</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cowboys</TD><TD>Giants</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seahawks</TD><TD>Rams</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.
By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
Here are the Week 14 NFL Vegas Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 14 Vegas NFL Rankings
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>102</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>96.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>97</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>96</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>97.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-8</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-8</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>90.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-14</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-16</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-19</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Bucs</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-23</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>86</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-28</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jags</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>81</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>80.5</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Josh Freeman: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Christian Ponder: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Sam Bradford: 2 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Michael Vick: 1.5 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>A.J. Feeley: 1 point </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Adrian Peterson: 1 point</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler).
Most Overrated and Underrated Teams
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>9 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Texans (t-11)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 or 8 wins</TD><TD>Cowboys (7)</TD><TD>Bears (t-19)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or 6 Wins</TD><TD>Giants (10)</TD><TD>Chiefs (t-28)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (13)</TD><TD>Colts (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, though no team is close to the Packers, Vegas is giving love to the surging Miami Dolphins who impressed again this past weekend.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Projected Spreads
We projected the Week 14 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Ravens, Jets, Patriots and more.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 14 NFL Spreads
Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Home</TH><TH>Road</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Steelers</TD><TD>Browns</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-14.5</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ravens</TD><TD>Colts</TD><TD>-16.5</TD><TD>-18</TD><TD>-19.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Bengals</TD><TD>Texans</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Packers</TD><TD>Raiders</TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jets</TD><TD>Chiefs</TD><TD>-9</TD><TD>-11</TD><TD>-11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lions</TD><TD>Vikings</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8</TD><TD>-8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Titans</TD><TD>Saints</TD><TD>+3.5</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dolphins</TD><TD>Eagles</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Redskins</TD><TD>Patriots</TD><TD>+7</TD><TD>+9.5</TD><TD>+11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Panthers</TD><TD>Falcons</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jaguars</TD><TD>Bucs*</TD><TD>+1</TD><TD>+1</TD><TD>+1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cardinals</TD><TD>49ers</TD><TD>+4</TD><TD>+4.5</TD><TD>+4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Broncos</TD><TD>Bears</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chargers</TD><TD>Bills</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-4.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cowboys</TD><TD>Giants</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seahawks</TD><TD>Rams</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.
