Missouri tops CBB Sweat Barometer
By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
As we shift from college football to college basketball, it dawned on me that the structure of the two sports is exactly the opposite.
In football, almost all of the drama comes in the regular season and the postseason has minimal importance (minus the BCS National Championship Game, of course). In basketball, the regular season lacks real significance, but March Madness is one of the great spectacles of the year. Sometimes it feels like a three-month tuneup.
As I bemoaned the lack of importance of the college basketball regular season to a friend -- and gambler -- he thought about what I was saying and said, "Only one problem with your point. All the players think every game is important."
He was completely right. Look, no one would argue that December preseason tournaments at some neutral location have the intensity of a Sweet 16 game. But the players care. They aren't thinking about how little it matters whether you're a No. 7 seed or a No. 10 seed come March. They're in the moment.
And the college basketball regular season certainly matters to bettors. There are dozens of games to gamble on each night, and an astute handicapper can often take advantage of a misguided line on a game that isn't getting much national attention.
On this blog, every Wednesday we'll be providing the College Basketball Sweat Barometer, a tool conceived by ESPN The Magazine Editor in Chief Chad Millman and professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of Madduxsports.com.
The Sweat Barometer is another name for what some handicappers refer to as margin of cover. It is the average, for every game on the season, that a team is either covering or not covering the spread. We'll give you the top 25 Sweat Barometer teams in the country, as well as the SB results of the AP top 25 and the bottom five SB teams in the nation.
On our debut chart, you'll see that just three of the AP top 25 are in the top 25 of the Sweat Barometer. Might be time to focus on those wannabe Cinderella schools now, not just in March.
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Top 25 (minimum 4 games against the spread)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Missouri Tigers (10)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>-13.38</TD><TD>15.13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</TD><TD>8-0-0</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>13.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lehigh Mountain Hawks</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>166</TD><TD>-0.88</TD><TD>12.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Missouri State Bears</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>11.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Creighton Blue Jays</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>10.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Columbia Lions</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>198</TD><TD>4.6</TD><TD>9.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Purdue Boilermakers</TD><TD>5-2-0</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>-7.21</TD><TD>8.93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Iona Gaels</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>-6.9</TD><TD>8.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indiana Hoosiers</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Harvard Crimson (25)</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>-5</TD><TD>8.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Georgetown Hoyas</TD><TD>5-0-0</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>-6.1</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Albany Great Danes</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>7.13</TD><TD>7.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Montana State Bobcats</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>284</TD><TD>7.75</TD><TD>7.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ohio State Buckeyes (2)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>-16.25</TD><TD>7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Stanford Cardinal</TD><TD>6-1-0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>-7.93</TD><TD>6.93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Texas Mean Green</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>6.75</TD><TD>6.92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cal Poly Mustangs</TD><TD>4-3-0</TD><TD>151</TD><TD>-0.14</TD><TD>6.86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>St. Joseph's Hawks</TD><TD>6-1-0</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>0.29</TD><TD>6.86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Denver Pioneers</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>2.9</TD><TD>6.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Buffalo Bulls</TD><TD>2-4-0</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>-4.33</TD><TD>6.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eastern Washington Eagles</TD><TD>5-1-0</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>5.75</TD><TD>6.08</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Dakota State Bison</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-2.2</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>La Salle Explorers</TD><TD>5-1-0</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>2.33</TD><TD>5.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seton Hall Pirates</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-4.17</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Saint Louis Billikens</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=last></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->Remaining AP Top 25 (min. 4 games ATS)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Marquette Golden Eagles (11)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-10.13</TD><TD>5.13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin Badgers (14)</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>56</TD><TD>-10.2</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Syracuse Orange (3)</TD><TD>5-2-0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>-17.5</TD><TD>2.79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas Jayhawks (13)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>-6.25</TD><TD>2.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Xavier Musketeers (8)</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>-6.38</TD><TD>2.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alabama Crimson Tide (16)</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>-6.8</TD><TD>2.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Memphis Tigers (21)</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>-4.7</TD><TD>2.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mississippi State Bulldogs (17)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>68</TD><TD>-10.33</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Louisville Cardinals (5)</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-14.83</TD><TD>1.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michigan Wolverines (20)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>-4.67</TD><TD>1.33</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kentucky Wildcats (1)</TD><TD>2-4-0</TD><TD>212</TD><TD>-17.5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Gonzaga Bulldogs (23)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>-12.17</TD><TD>-0.83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Illinois Fighting Illini (24)</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>-12</TD><TD>-0.83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Carolina Tar Heels (4)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>-8.75</TD><TD>-1.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Duke Blue Devils (7)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Connecticut Huskies (9)</TD><TD>1-3-1</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-10.7</TD><TD>-4.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Panthers (15)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>-10.75</TD><TD>-4.42</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Bottom 5 (min. 4 games ATS)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>UAB Blazers</TD><TD>1-6-0</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>-2.71</TD><TD>-9.71</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Notre Dame Fighting Irish</TD><TD>0-5-0</TD><TD>214</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>-10.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Utah Utes</TD><TD>0-5-1</TD><TD>236</TD><TD>9.17</TD><TD>-11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>William & Mary Tribe</TD><TD>1-5-0</TD><TD>338</TD><TD>7.58</TD><TD>-12.58</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Monmouth Hawks</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>315</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-18.25</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
As we shift from college football to college basketball, it dawned on me that the structure of the two sports is exactly the opposite.
In football, almost all of the drama comes in the regular season and the postseason has minimal importance (minus the BCS National Championship Game, of course). In basketball, the regular season lacks real significance, but March Madness is one of the great spectacles of the year. Sometimes it feels like a three-month tuneup.
As I bemoaned the lack of importance of the college basketball regular season to a friend -- and gambler -- he thought about what I was saying and said, "Only one problem with your point. All the players think every game is important."
He was completely right. Look, no one would argue that December preseason tournaments at some neutral location have the intensity of a Sweet 16 game. But the players care. They aren't thinking about how little it matters whether you're a No. 7 seed or a No. 10 seed come March. They're in the moment.
And the college basketball regular season certainly matters to bettors. There are dozens of games to gamble on each night, and an astute handicapper can often take advantage of a misguided line on a game that isn't getting much national attention.
On this blog, every Wednesday we'll be providing the College Basketball Sweat Barometer, a tool conceived by ESPN The Magazine Editor in Chief Chad Millman and professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of Madduxsports.com.
The Sweat Barometer is another name for what some handicappers refer to as margin of cover. It is the average, for every game on the season, that a team is either covering or not covering the spread. We'll give you the top 25 Sweat Barometer teams in the country, as well as the SB results of the AP top 25 and the bottom five SB teams in the nation.
On our debut chart, you'll see that just three of the AP top 25 are in the top 25 of the Sweat Barometer. Might be time to focus on those wannabe Cinderella schools now, not just in March.
<OFFER>
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Top 25 (minimum 4 games against the spread)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Missouri Tigers (10)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>-13.38</TD><TD>15.13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</TD><TD>8-0-0</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>13.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Lehigh Mountain Hawks</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>166</TD><TD>-0.88</TD><TD>12.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Missouri State Bears</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>11.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Creighton Blue Jays</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>10.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Columbia Lions</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>198</TD><TD>4.6</TD><TD>9.4</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Purdue Boilermakers</TD><TD>5-2-0</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>-7.21</TD><TD>8.93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Iona Gaels</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>-6.9</TD><TD>8.9</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indiana Hoosiers</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>8.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Harvard Crimson (25)</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>-5</TD><TD>8.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Georgetown Hoyas</TD><TD>5-0-0</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>-6.1</TD><TD>7.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Albany Great Danes</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>7.13</TD><TD>7.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Montana State Bobcats</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>284</TD><TD>7.75</TD><TD>7.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ohio State Buckeyes (2)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>-16.25</TD><TD>7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Stanford Cardinal</TD><TD>6-1-0</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>-7.93</TD><TD>6.93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Texas Mean Green</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>6.75</TD><TD>6.92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cal Poly Mustangs</TD><TD>4-3-0</TD><TD>151</TD><TD>-0.14</TD><TD>6.86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>St. Joseph's Hawks</TD><TD>6-1-0</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>0.29</TD><TD>6.86</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Denver Pioneers</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>2.9</TD><TD>6.7</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Buffalo Bulls</TD><TD>2-4-0</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>-4.33</TD><TD>6.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eastern Washington Eagles</TD><TD>5-1-0</TD><TD>172</TD><TD>5.75</TD><TD>6.08</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Dakota State Bison</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>-2.2</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>La Salle Explorers</TD><TD>5-1-0</TD><TD>93</TD><TD>2.33</TD><TD>5.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seton Hall Pirates</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-4.17</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Saint Louis Billikens</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=last></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->Remaining AP Top 25 (min. 4 games ATS)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Marquette Golden Eagles (11)</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-10.13</TD><TD>5.13</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Wisconsin Badgers (14)</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>56</TD><TD>-10.2</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Syracuse Orange (3)</TD><TD>5-2-0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>-17.5</TD><TD>2.79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas Jayhawks (13)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>-6.25</TD><TD>2.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Xavier Musketeers (8)</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>-6.38</TD><TD>2.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alabama Crimson Tide (16)</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>-6.8</TD><TD>2.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Memphis Tigers (21)</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>-4.7</TD><TD>2.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mississippi State Bulldogs (17)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>68</TD><TD>-10.33</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Louisville Cardinals (5)</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-14.83</TD><TD>1.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Michigan Wolverines (20)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>-4.67</TD><TD>1.33</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kentucky Wildcats (1)</TD><TD>2-4-0</TD><TD>212</TD><TD>-17.5</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Gonzaga Bulldogs (23)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>-12.17</TD><TD>-0.83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Illinois Fighting Illini (24)</TD><TD>4-2-0</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>-12</TD><TD>-0.83</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>North Carolina Tar Heels (4)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>-8.75</TD><TD>-1.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Duke Blue Devils (7)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>-9.75</TD><TD>-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Connecticut Huskies (9)</TD><TD>1-3-1</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-10.7</TD><TD>-4.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Panthers (15)</TD><TD>3-3-0</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>-10.75</TD><TD>-4.42</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Bottom 5 (min. 4 games ATS)
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>RPI</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH>Sweat Barometer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>UAB Blazers</TD><TD>1-6-0</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>-2.71</TD><TD>-9.71</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Notre Dame Fighting Irish</TD><TD>0-5-0</TD><TD>214</TD><TD>0.6</TD><TD>-10.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Utah Utes</TD><TD>0-5-1</TD><TD>236</TD><TD>9.17</TD><TD>-11</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>William & Mary Tribe</TD><TD>1-5-0</TD><TD>338</TD><TD>7.58</TD><TD>-12.58</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Monmouth Hawks</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>315</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-18.25</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
