Monday Night Chaser: Rams vs. Seahawks
Chad Millman
My first job in the magazine biz was at Sports Illustrated, checking Peter King's weekly NFL column. There's not a more generous man in journalism than Peter, so I'm sure he won't mind if I pay homage to his weekly awards section in "Monday Morning Quarterback" by offering my own awards roundup this week, of the gambling variety.
Here we go:
The Don't-Believe-Til-You-See-It Award:
This goes to the 80-20 rule. If you listened to my podcast on Friday you caught Dan Fabrizio of sportsinsights.com talking about contrarian betting theories. That means betting against the public almost exclusively. And that means generally betting on underdogs. His research shows that doing just this will help you win 51 percent of your bets. Now, that's not enough to beat a book charging you a 10 percent commission (you need to hit 52.4 percent to do that). But 51 is closer than 50, so it's a head start. What Fabrizio talked about was finding the filters that help you find that extra 1.5-2 percent that helps turn a profit. And one of the filters he loves is the 80-20 rule. When you have a home dog in which 80 percent of the bets are on the road fave, it's a winning formula. I tested his theory this weekend and included the two 80-20 games -- the Niners getting 82 percent of bets as 3.5-point faves at Zona and the Pats getting 84 percent of bets as 7.5-point faves at Washington -- in my SuperContest five. I won both games.
The Right-Side-Wrong-Outcome Award:
For most of the week, the Saints-Titans in Nashville fell into that 80-20 category, too (it ended up 74 percent-26 percent). Still, I made the Titans plus-3.5 a SuperContest pick anyway. And it was the right call. This is something worth remembering during the playoffs: Drew Brees and the Saints look human playing on natural grass under the real sky. Yet bookmakers know casual fans will bet them anyway, so they are bound to be overvalued. Look at the stats in this game and it's clear the Titans should have covered. They gained a full yard more per play (6.8 to 5.8), and were better in the red zone. Even with Jake Locker taking over for Matt Hasselbeck, they kept it close. Bummer.
The It-Really-Can't-Get-Worse Award:
Another reference to last week's offerings, sorry. But in Friday's column, my fellow Chicagoan, Todd Fuhrman of Caesars in Las Vegas, told me that the line in the Bears-Broncos game had moved from Denver minus-4 to minus-3.5 because wiseguys believed, "It's tough to lay over a field goal with an offense that has relied on last-minute heroics." He also pointed out that it would be hard for the Bears' offense to play any worse. It was better against Denver … and then Marion Barber was just bad enough to give the game back to Denver when it needed it most. The other thing Fuhrman told me Friday: We would be glad to have that half-point hook in our pockets. I know I was.
The Now-We-Know-How-Motivated-The-Packers-Are Award:
Green Bay 46, Oakland 16. If the win against the Giants had people thinking the Pack were disinterested, if anyone had any doubts about their intentions of going for an undefeated season, let this be the answer. I know I learned my lesson.
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Seahawks -6.5 and a total of 39.5 last Sunday. When the news broke that both Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley might not play, we had to take the game off the board. Injury updates were vague and inconsistent throughout the week, which kept the game off the board until Friday. As I'm writing this, I'm still not sure who's going to play QB for the Rams. My guess … Tom Brandstater.
"Finally, we reposted the game thinking Brandstater was the guy. The number was adjusted to Seahawks -10 and 37. It's been flip-flopping back and forth between -10 and -10.5. I can't see the Rams getting support to drive this line below 10. Most likely it will stay at -10 or go up a bit to -10.5 or -11. I expect the total go down, as most bettors won't expect the Rams to post too many points. The total should close at 36."
Prediction: Line will close at -10.5 or -11; total will close at 36
The SportsBoss says: "Lots of injuries, especially on the Rams side for this one tonight, makes it a little tougher to handicap, and quite frankly, for myself, much less likely I am going to have action on this game.
"Still, I have Seattle favored in every single breakdown I use for these games. In my analysis:
1. Unit breakdown: The Rams only have one edge in this analysis and it's in their passing defense versus Seattle passing offense. St. Louis is ranked No. 22 or worse in seven of the eight unit categories.
2. Rankings: Seattle has a medium edge driven by its defense having an edge over St. Louis' offense. The Rams' offense really struggles doing anything at all, and isn't blocking well.
3. Averages: Seattle has the edge and it also suggests a low-scoring game.
4. Regression: Seattle has a nice size advantage, about a field goal below the line on this game but that really is because of the injuries.
"These two teams are pretty low on the performance ratings with the Seahawks at No. 24 and the Rams at No. 31 -- both have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL. The biggest difference between these teams is the Rams' offense, especially up front, as their team is giving up the most sacks in the league and their total offense is last in the NFL.
"With Bradford and Feeley likely out, I don't see how St. Louis is going to score double digits tonight. Consider that St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 overall. I will be laying off this game, but Seattle is the play here if squeezed for a call."
Chad Millman
My first job in the magazine biz was at Sports Illustrated, checking Peter King's weekly NFL column. There's not a more generous man in journalism than Peter, so I'm sure he won't mind if I pay homage to his weekly awards section in "Monday Morning Quarterback" by offering my own awards roundup this week, of the gambling variety.
Here we go:
The Don't-Believe-Til-You-See-It Award:
This goes to the 80-20 rule. If you listened to my podcast on Friday you caught Dan Fabrizio of sportsinsights.com talking about contrarian betting theories. That means betting against the public almost exclusively. And that means generally betting on underdogs. His research shows that doing just this will help you win 51 percent of your bets. Now, that's not enough to beat a book charging you a 10 percent commission (you need to hit 52.4 percent to do that). But 51 is closer than 50, so it's a head start. What Fabrizio talked about was finding the filters that help you find that extra 1.5-2 percent that helps turn a profit. And one of the filters he loves is the 80-20 rule. When you have a home dog in which 80 percent of the bets are on the road fave, it's a winning formula. I tested his theory this weekend and included the two 80-20 games -- the Niners getting 82 percent of bets as 3.5-point faves at Zona and the Pats getting 84 percent of bets as 7.5-point faves at Washington -- in my SuperContest five. I won both games.
The Right-Side-Wrong-Outcome Award:
For most of the week, the Saints-Titans in Nashville fell into that 80-20 category, too (it ended up 74 percent-26 percent). Still, I made the Titans plus-3.5 a SuperContest pick anyway. And it was the right call. This is something worth remembering during the playoffs: Drew Brees and the Saints look human playing on natural grass under the real sky. Yet bookmakers know casual fans will bet them anyway, so they are bound to be overvalued. Look at the stats in this game and it's clear the Titans should have covered. They gained a full yard more per play (6.8 to 5.8), and were better in the red zone. Even with Jake Locker taking over for Matt Hasselbeck, they kept it close. Bummer.
The It-Really-Can't-Get-Worse Award:
Another reference to last week's offerings, sorry. But in Friday's column, my fellow Chicagoan, Todd Fuhrman of Caesars in Las Vegas, told me that the line in the Bears-Broncos game had moved from Denver minus-4 to minus-3.5 because wiseguys believed, "It's tough to lay over a field goal with an offense that has relied on last-minute heroics." He also pointed out that it would be hard for the Bears' offense to play any worse. It was better against Denver … and then Marion Barber was just bad enough to give the game back to Denver when it needed it most. The other thing Fuhrman told me Friday: We would be glad to have that half-point hook in our pockets. I know I was.
The Now-We-Know-How-Motivated-The-Packers-Are Award:
Green Bay 46, Oakland 16. If the win against the Giants had people thinking the Pack were disinterested, if anyone had any doubts about their intentions of going for an undefeated season, let this be the answer. I know I learned my lesson.
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Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
<OFFER>Spread: Opened at Seahawks -6.5, now -10
Over/under: Opened at 39.5, now 37
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<OFFER>Spread: Opened at Seahawks -6.5, now -10
Over/under: Opened at 39.5, now 37
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Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Seahawks -6.5 and a total of 39.5 last Sunday. When the news broke that both Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley might not play, we had to take the game off the board. Injury updates were vague and inconsistent throughout the week, which kept the game off the board until Friday. As I'm writing this, I'm still not sure who's going to play QB for the Rams. My guess … Tom Brandstater.
"Finally, we reposted the game thinking Brandstater was the guy. The number was adjusted to Seahawks -10 and 37. It's been flip-flopping back and forth between -10 and -10.5. I can't see the Rams getting support to drive this line below 10. Most likely it will stay at -10 or go up a bit to -10.5 or -11. I expect the total go down, as most bettors won't expect the Rams to post too many points. The total should close at 36."
Prediction: Line will close at -10.5 or -11; total will close at 36
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The SportsBoss says: "Lots of injuries, especially on the Rams side for this one tonight, makes it a little tougher to handicap, and quite frankly, for myself, much less likely I am going to have action on this game.
"Still, I have Seattle favored in every single breakdown I use for these games. In my analysis:
1. Unit breakdown: The Rams only have one edge in this analysis and it's in their passing defense versus Seattle passing offense. St. Louis is ranked No. 22 or worse in seven of the eight unit categories.
2. Rankings: Seattle has a medium edge driven by its defense having an edge over St. Louis' offense. The Rams' offense really struggles doing anything at all, and isn't blocking well.
3. Averages: Seattle has the edge and it also suggests a low-scoring game.
4. Regression: Seattle has a nice size advantage, about a field goal below the line on this game but that really is because of the injuries.
"These two teams are pretty low on the performance ratings with the Seahawks at No. 24 and the Rams at No. 31 -- both have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL. The biggest difference between these teams is the Rams' offense, especially up front, as their team is giving up the most sacks in the league and their total offense is last in the NFL.
"With Bradford and Feeley likely out, I don't see how St. Louis is going to score double digits tonight. Consider that St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 overall. I will be laying off this game, but Seattle is the play here if squeezed for a call."
