Crassus' Combat Sports Thread

jonnyg4508 said:

I really don't see how OSP wins inside the distance. If he wins I'd bet it'd have to be by boring lay and pray.

A lot of plays you have. Caught Noons at a nice price, I think he outclasses with his hands. Good Luck!

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Crassus said:

All Odds from Bovada (bodog)
All Bets are 1 unit.
Strikeforce Melendez vs Masvidal-12/17/11
Kj Noons To Win (-190)
KJ Noons should take this in a close battle
KJ Noons Wins Inside Distance (+220)
If he does win however, it will be within the distance
Kj Noons vs Billy Evangalista Won't complete 2 rounds (+250)
If Evangalista wins, it will be in the first round I'd say and if Noons wins it's going to be before the end of the second
Gegard Mousasi To Win (-400)
OSP is not the wrestler I thought he was, he's a striker. He's a rather sloppy striker and he's not displayed great cardio. Mousasi picks him apart.
Gegard Mousasi Wins Inside Distance (+140)
Mousasi has something to prove in this fight, and he's going to take it out on OSP.
Ovince St. Preux Wins Inside Distance (+600)
If OSP does win it'll be by (T)KO, and with +600 odds I'd be glad to take a 1 unit risk on it.
Gegard Mousasi vs OSP Won't Complete 2 full rounds (+140)
Both guys have something to prove, it'll be a 2nd round (T)KO for either one.
Gilbert Melendez To Win (-400)
I think Melendez has the chance to challenge the winner of Edgar-Henderson, and he won't let that go.
Gilbert Melendez Wins 5rd Decision (+200)
My instinct is that Melendez is not the most potent of finishers, especially with someone like Evangalista, I say he takes the decision.
Jorge Masvidal Wins inside distance (+600)
Masvidal won't win decision. If he does win though, it'll be by finish and with +600 it's worth the risk--call it a hedge.
Cyborg vs Yamanaka Won't complete 1 rnd (+140)
Cyborg hasn't been in the cage for almost a year. But, she won't be back for longer than 5 minutes.

Boxing- Froch vs Ward - 12/17/11
Carl Froch Wins (+250)
Carl Froch has been on another level his last two fights. Also, he's got something to prove and I love a fighter whose got something to prove. I think Froch starts out strong and fades by the 8th but takes the decision after surviving some late scares.

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Crassus said:

My UFC bets for tonight

Manny Gamburyan (+230)
Gamburyan just has something about him which I like, this one is the one I can't really justify...just a gut feeling. Oh and he beat Leonard Garcia by decision.

You had the momentum in the second round manny! You had it! but you lost it...I don't blame you, you had a damn tough opponent. I was the least sure on this one and Manny was worth the risk.


Efrain Escudero (+230)
Escudero is only back in the UFC because of an injury to a previous opponent (afaik) one loss and he's back out. Win and he's back on top of the world. I love when fighters have their backs to the wall.
He had the choke. My hands were in the air but somehow Volkmann escaped. I don't know, I would have loved it even as a fan for Escudero to win. But he didn't. It's too bad.

Dong Hyung Kim (-500)
Kim looked pretty bad against Condit, although the fight wasn't really long enough to decide. Regardless I think his wrestling and top control is just TOO good to be denied, Kim by decision.
The first one I got right! ...but not the way I expected. I kind of take that as almost as a bit of a loss actually, Kim barely through a takedown all he was going for was the highlight KO...still its a win.

Jon Fitch (-200)
THE BLANKET RETURNS! but theres a twist, this times he's pissed that the UFC is treating him so badly. Expect an extra emphasis on the unanimous decision Fitch wins.
Well it's hard to be the blanket when a sledgehammer has been delivered to your face...I still say Fitch wins 7/10 times.

Nate Diaz (+250)
Nate suffers the Diaz curse--wrestlers. Cowboy is good but he's there to bang, and after the weigh-ins and press conferences I think Diaz is in Cerrones head. I don't know I know that in all likelihood Cerrone destroys Diaz but I have faith in Nate and he looked badass in his fight vs Gomi.
Nate was on a whole different level last night, Cerrone just had no answer to that kind of boxing he has. It was a damn good fight.

Allistair Overeem (-150)
Overeem wins. I think he gets up from Brocks guard and gives him a few liver kicks/leg kicks and then pounces in. This fight was the hardest to choose, I always see Overeem catching Brock in the clinch and then giving him some horrible knees to get the (T)KO...but then I also see Brock take him down and just brutalize him with punches...tough tough fight to call but I think Overeem has the slight edge.
Called it. Overeem took him in and punished him down with knees and kicks to the body. Brock just wasn't the same after his disease, good for him to take the big huge payday and move right along.

Nam Phan (-180)

Jim Hettes is an exciting prospect but Phan is at a better stage right now and I think he takes a unanimous decision over Hettes.
Jim Hettes is much much more than an exciting prospect. The guy was amazing, watching the fight where he took a vet like Phan to TWO 10-8 rounds was incredible. Slick takedowns, excellent ground game but his stand-up looked god awful. Still he's going places, the guy tooled a BJJ black belt like nothing.


Honestly this was the hardest UFC for me to call for a while, the underdogs worth the risk were there but the favorites were well deserved. Nearly EVERY fight is a pick 'em...I have faith in the picks but won't be surprised if I lose.

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TearTrax said:

Great call on the Lsenar/Overeem fight.......I think Allistair does some major damage in the HW ranks of the UFC. Good to see Brock retire.....he clearly was not the same fighter that earned the HW belt several years ago. If he could have did his mad rush and scored a takedown it might have been a different fight but all things considered Overeem is on another level with all his K-1 skills.

Respectfully,
Tim

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TearTrax said:

I'll be interested to see your thoughts on the upcoming UFC on Fox event scheduled for 28 Jan.

Thanks,
Tim

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Crassus said:

At first glance I'd take

Einemo over Russow
Roop over Swanson
Dunham over Lentz
Johnson over Beltran
Munoz over Sonnen
Evans over Davis

feeling torn on Maia vs Bisping...

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jonnyg4508 said:

I like all these picks besides Munoz.

I hate Chael, but I don't really see him losing. Munoz has great wrestling credentials, but he hasn't looked that great in MMA wrestling. I think Sonnen could wrestle the shit out of him if he wanted. He has a lot more cardio too. I think standing Sonnen has better boxing as well, but Munoz more power. But Chael has never been KO'd. I really like Sonnen all day for betting. If I have nothing on it I will be rooting Munoz hard though.

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crassus said:

strikeforce tonight!
All bets from bovada

gian villante -150
villante used to be the talk of the town at lhw, now he's facing someone whose red hot and a submission ace. This is my pick'em of the fight, but i think villante will be too athletic and his stand-up will be too much for the submission wonder-kid.

Tarec saffiedine -450
he's just a much more complete fighter than stintson, he's got decent submissions and excellent striking. I see this fight ending in a 2nd round submission, led to by strikes from saffiedine.

Tyrone woodley -340
mein is a good striker but woodley is a freak athlete and isn't afraid of the ugly decision, he'll take him down and ride out the decision. Maybe get the g&p stoppage but i'd doubt it.

King mo -600
king mo is going to school lorenz larkin. I'm positive of that. Larkins a good striker which means he will be on the mat for the majority of the fight, his takedown defense has been nothing to write home about. In a very one-sided match i see a g&p finish in the second round by king mo.

Robbie lawler -190
this is risky. Lawler needs to play conservative for the first round and not just slug it out with amagov. This is amagov's first big moment and after a hectic, scary first round lawler will take advantage of his tired foe and (t)ko him.

Luke rockhold -550
did you see the weigh-in pics? Keith jardine looks so small it's ridiculous. Good on him but he's not going to have any energy after that, i can't see him taking more than a round or two from rockhold. Rockhold by decision.

Parlay- king mo, robbie lawler, luke rockhold
parlay all picks (for fun)
parlay wrestlers- king mo, woodley
parlay strikers - saffiedine, lawler, rockhold and villante

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Crassus said:

B
Bellator 61 (Bovada)- Again, still in simulation mode until at least august. Just for full disclosure.
Maiquel "Big Rig" Falcao (-370)- Big Rig is a beast, I would take him all the way to -450 without a doubt. Falcao wins this 9/10 times.
Brian "The Predator" Rogers (+105) - the pick'em fight of the night in my opinion. Rogers is an explosive, bad bad man. I say he gets lucky and slams a big ole hook to Vianna's head.
Giva "The Arm Collector" Santana (-125) - When a guy who only wins by decision (basically) gets matched up against a guy who always finishes, I say the fight has way more chances of the finisher winning just by pure time to work. Big play on Santana in my simulation.
Vyacheslav "Slava" Vasilevsky (-280) - Slava is good and has something to prove to Bellator since he burned quite a few bridges leaving M-1. He'll fight his heart out and land some nasty combos, but I don't think he finishes O'Donnell. I'd take slava all the way to -320.

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