Picking winners for early bowl games
Evaluating upset odds for Boise State-ASU and others from the first week of bowls
By Will Harris
ESPN Insider
Every week during the season, Will Harris conspires with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.
Upset Picks finished one game over .500 against the spread this season, and now we turn our attention to the bowls. There aren't many large favorites this season, with only four teams laying double digits and with 21 of the 35 games sporting prices between 1.5 and 3.5.
We'll break down all the matchups in stages as we go through the postseason, looking for mismatches and live dogs.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Dec. 21
TCU is favored by 10.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Louisiana Tech: 23 percent
For Louisiana Tech, the Poinsettia is a coveted destination reserved for the WAC champion. But for a TCU team that earned Rose and Fiesta berths the past two seasons, it's a ho-hum assignment that the Frogs already have conquered twice in the past five years. The TCU defense is still very good, but the 21 points per game allowed are its most since 2004. This is a less experienced group that's nowhere near the standards of the shutdown units of the past three seasons.
A quarterback change to Colby Cameron at midseason sparked the passing game as Louisiana Tech won and covered seven straight. The Bulldogs are hurting at running back, but Cameron can move the chains with his legs, and the Frogs have struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season. More importantly, Tech has the run defense to slow TCU's three-headed tailback monster as well as standout special teams that won't let TCU run away with the game when its offense isn't on the field.
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This is a program game for Louisiana Tech, which is the class of a dying WAC and very much needs to be included in any pending merger of the Mountain West and Conference USA. The Bulldogs have a big, physical defense that isn't about to get run off the field. TCU will hit a few shots down the field, but the double-digit price is attractive in what shouldn't be a high-scoring affair. Tech is not outclassed here and has a good shot to make it eight straight wins.
The pick: Louisiana Tech 24, TCU 21
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State Aggies vs. Ohio Bobcats, Dec. 17
Utah State is favored by 1.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Ohio: 53 percent
Ohio is a balanced, well-coached team without glaring weaknesses in any of the three phases except perhaps their shaky offensive red zone performance and lack of a pass rush. Under normal circumstances, the Bobcats match up decently with run-oriented Utah State, but this game sets up much better for the Aggies. Ohio is 0-8 in postseason games and is in the tank from a crushing loss in the MAC championship game. The Bobcats poured everything they had into that matchup with favored Northern Illinois only to blow a 20-point halftime lead.
Now they've been exiled to the MAC's least desirable bowl, an early date at a venue that's far more familiar to a Utah State team that closed the 2010 season on the blue turf. The Aggies are much more excited to prepare for and play this game, and they boast both the home-crowd edge and the biggest weapon on the field in big-play running back Robert Turbin. This is a tight, well-led group that has come from behind to win several close games this season, and we'll lay the short price with the Aggies against a demoralized Ohio team.
The pick: Utah State 33, Ohio 24
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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. San Diego State Aztecs, Dec. 17
San Diego State is favored by 4.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Louisiana-Lafayette: 36 percent
San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman will get his yards, but as shaky as Louisiana's rush defense has been this year, Western Kentucky's Bobby Rainey is the only back who's really run wild. Most of the damage has been done by rushing quarterbacks very unlike Aztecs pocket passer Ryan Lindley, who has recorded just two rushing first downs all season. The Louisiana secondary is an outstanding group that can lock down San Diego State's inexperienced receivers. If the Ragin' Cajuns can keep Hillman under control, they'll win the game, as there's no doubt they can move the ball themselves.
This game sets up nicely for Lafayette-based Louisiana, as the school now prefers to be simply known. The Cajuns have an obvious advantage in venue, are healthier than their opponent and have far less interference from academics this bowl season. Aztecs boss Rocky Long left New Mexico as easily the winningest coach in school history, but his bowl résumé is lacking and this matchup offers tough circumstances for him to improve on a 1-4 postseason record.
The pick: Louisiana 35, San Diego State 24
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Quick hitters
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Temple Owls (minus-7) vs. Wyoming Cowboys, Dec. 17: We like this Wyoming team, but the Cowboys are outclassed at the line of scrimmage in this one. The rush defense is not equipped to handle Bernard Pierce and the Owls' physical attack, while the offense is missing its best rusher and receiver. Temple will chew up yards and clock, leveraging its superior special teams, massive offensive line and talented, experienced defensive front seven to control the game.
Temple 42, Wyoming 17
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (minus-4) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd, Dec. 20: Marshall is the season's weakest bowl team and deserves to take some points from the fourth-place team in the Sun Belt. The Herd are a young group with an inexperienced coaching staff and without much offensive punch, while FIU is a veteran outfit with explosive playmakers and a partisan Florida crowd behind them.
FIU 28, Marshall 17
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State Broncos (minus-14) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils, Dec. 22: The Broncos aren't happy to be here, and coach Chris Petersen even did some uncharacteristic complaining about the bowl system that relegated his 11-1 Broncos to Vegas for a second straight year. That's about the only edge Arizona State has, though, as the Devils have little hope of stopping Kellen Moore or Doug Martin. Arizona State will land some punches in the passing game, and we're not enthralled about laying two touchdowns with a team that's not that enthusiastic about its assignment. But in the final game for Moore and a record-setting senior class, Boise is probably the most upset-proof of this season's vulnerable crop of big bowl favorites.
Boise State 42, Arizona State 28
Evaluating upset odds for Boise State-ASU and others from the first week of bowls
By Will Harris
ESPN Insider
Every week during the season, Will Harris conspires with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.
Upset Picks finished one game over .500 against the spread this season, and now we turn our attention to the bowls. There aren't many large favorites this season, with only four teams laying double digits and with 21 of the 35 games sporting prices between 1.5 and 3.5.
We'll break down all the matchups in stages as we go through the postseason, looking for mismatches and live dogs.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Dec. 21
TCU is favored by 10.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Louisiana Tech: 23 percent
For Louisiana Tech, the Poinsettia is a coveted destination reserved for the WAC champion. But for a TCU team that earned Rose and Fiesta berths the past two seasons, it's a ho-hum assignment that the Frogs already have conquered twice in the past five years. The TCU defense is still very good, but the 21 points per game allowed are its most since 2004. This is a less experienced group that's nowhere near the standards of the shutdown units of the past three seasons.
A quarterback change to Colby Cameron at midseason sparked the passing game as Louisiana Tech won and covered seven straight. The Bulldogs are hurting at running back, but Cameron can move the chains with his legs, and the Frogs have struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season. More importantly, Tech has the run defense to slow TCU's three-headed tailback monster as well as standout special teams that won't let TCU run away with the game when its offense isn't on the field.
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This is a program game for Louisiana Tech, which is the class of a dying WAC and very much needs to be included in any pending merger of the Mountain West and Conference USA. The Bulldogs have a big, physical defense that isn't about to get run off the field. TCU will hit a few shots down the field, but the double-digit price is attractive in what shouldn't be a high-scoring affair. Tech is not outclassed here and has a good shot to make it eight straight wins.
The pick: Louisiana Tech 24, TCU 21
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State Aggies vs. Ohio Bobcats, Dec. 17
Utah State is favored by 1.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Ohio: 53 percent
Ohio is a balanced, well-coached team without glaring weaknesses in any of the three phases except perhaps their shaky offensive red zone performance and lack of a pass rush. Under normal circumstances, the Bobcats match up decently with run-oriented Utah State, but this game sets up much better for the Aggies. Ohio is 0-8 in postseason games and is in the tank from a crushing loss in the MAC championship game. The Bobcats poured everything they had into that matchup with favored Northern Illinois only to blow a 20-point halftime lead.
Now they've been exiled to the MAC's least desirable bowl, an early date at a venue that's far more familiar to a Utah State team that closed the 2010 season on the blue turf. The Aggies are much more excited to prepare for and play this game, and they boast both the home-crowd edge and the biggest weapon on the field in big-play running back Robert Turbin. This is a tight, well-led group that has come from behind to win several close games this season, and we'll lay the short price with the Aggies against a demoralized Ohio team.
The pick: Utah State 33, Ohio 24
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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. San Diego State Aztecs, Dec. 17
San Diego State is favored by 4.5 points.
TeamRankings win odds for Louisiana-Lafayette: 36 percent
San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman will get his yards, but as shaky as Louisiana's rush defense has been this year, Western Kentucky's Bobby Rainey is the only back who's really run wild. Most of the damage has been done by rushing quarterbacks very unlike Aztecs pocket passer Ryan Lindley, who has recorded just two rushing first downs all season. The Louisiana secondary is an outstanding group that can lock down San Diego State's inexperienced receivers. If the Ragin' Cajuns can keep Hillman under control, they'll win the game, as there's no doubt they can move the ball themselves.
This game sets up nicely for Lafayette-based Louisiana, as the school now prefers to be simply known. The Cajuns have an obvious advantage in venue, are healthier than their opponent and have far less interference from academics this bowl season. Aztecs boss Rocky Long left New Mexico as easily the winningest coach in school history, but his bowl résumé is lacking and this matchup offers tough circumstances for him to improve on a 1-4 postseason record.
The pick: Louisiana 35, San Diego State 24
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Quick hitters
Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Temple Owls (minus-7) vs. Wyoming Cowboys, Dec. 17: We like this Wyoming team, but the Cowboys are outclassed at the line of scrimmage in this one. The rush defense is not equipped to handle Bernard Pierce and the Owls' physical attack, while the offense is missing its best rusher and receiver. Temple will chew up yards and clock, leveraging its superior special teams, massive offensive line and talented, experienced defensive front seven to control the game.
Temple 42, Wyoming 17
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (minus-4) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd, Dec. 20: Marshall is the season's weakest bowl team and deserves to take some points from the fourth-place team in the Sun Belt. The Herd are a young group with an inexperienced coaching staff and without much offensive punch, while FIU is a veteran outfit with explosive playmakers and a partisan Florida crowd behind them.
FIU 28, Marshall 17
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State Broncos (minus-14) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils, Dec. 22: The Broncos aren't happy to be here, and coach Chris Petersen even did some uncharacteristic complaining about the bowl system that relegated his 11-1 Broncos to Vegas for a second straight year. That's about the only edge Arizona State has, though, as the Devils have little hope of stopping Kellen Moore or Doug Martin. Arizona State will land some punches in the passing game, and we're not enthralled about laying two touchdowns with a team that's not that enthusiastic about its assignment. But in the final game for Moore and a record-setting senior class, Boise is probably the most upset-proof of this season's vulnerable crop of big bowl favorites.
Boise State 42, Arizona State 28
