Monday Night Chaser: Steelers-49ers
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
First, let's do some grades.
I went into great detail on Friday about how The SportsBoss calculates his ratings system. I also pointed out that, going back to the start of the 2010 season, he's noticed a pretty remarkable winning trend for teams that grade out at 80 or higher based on his formula. (You can link to the story from here, but briefly, he breaks down the offense and defense into 32 statistical categories -- 16 on offense and 16 on defense -- ascribes a 0-5 grade and then adds up the points. 160 is the highest possible, which has never been achieved. This season's best is 144 points, earned by the Texans heading into Week 7.)
<!-- begin inline 1 -->The SportsBoss speaks
Here are the teams The SportsBoss felt the strongest about this week.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Rating</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Orleans</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Green Bay</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Atlanta</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>89</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->This weekend, The Sports Boss had these teams rated the highest according to his system (table to the right).
We didn't break down the Houston game because the rating was based on season-long numbers, not just those with T.J. Yates under center. That game was a pass. We also passed on analyzing the Green Bay Packers because it felt like a trap -- new coach for the Kansas City Chiefs with Kyle Orton under center. Those were good decisions because, sometimes, the best move you can make is passing.
We did examine the Cincinnati Bengals' game, which The Sports Boss saw as an easy Cincy cover. And he was right about the cover -- it wasn't easy, though. Same with the New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons, which we also didn't review because the Falcons had smacked down the Jacksonville Jaguars the night before we spoke.
Of the eight games listed in the chart, I like that he was smart enough to ignore Houston and Green Bay. I like that he had the right numbers for Cincy, the Saints, the Boys and the Falcons.
Now, for the bad news: His analysis was slightly off on the Tennessee Titans, one of his higher rated teams for the day, against the winless Indianapolis Colts. And he missed on the Baltimore Ravens, whose defense he thought would dominate the San Diego Chargers based on his projections. "Really that Titans game seemed like a mixed issue for both teams: The Titans passed way too much and the Colts had so much success on ground that Dan Orlovsky didn't have to do much," says The Sports Boss. "The Ravens, on other hand, I loved and that was a just a big fat loss."
But 4-2 with two "no bets" is a record anyone would take to the bank.
The "80-20 rule" roundup
You also might remember a couple of weeks ago I spent a lot of time on the podcast with Dan Fabrizio of sportsinsights.com and then in the Monday Night Chaser column examining the "80-20 rule". This is the contrarian betting philosophy in which bettors take home dogs if they are getting 20 percent or less of the action. In other words, it's betting against the public. Three games closed within these parameters this weekend: Green Bay (83 percent) at -14 over Kansas City (17 percent), New Orleans (82 percent) at -7 over Minnesota (18 percent) and Cincy (86 percent) at -7 over St. Louis (14 percent).
On Sunday morning I was looking at these stats and didn't feel that comfortable making plays purely based on the 80-20 philosophy. In fact, two of my SuperContest plays were the Bengals and Saints. So I emailed Fabrizio asking, when you have multiple games in this scenario, what are the filters you should use? His answer: Dogs of eight points or more. One game filled that bucket: Green Bay vs. Kansas City. This was a game that the sharps had steamed from the opening with Green Bay as two-touchdown favorites to closing with the Pack as just 10-point favorites. A lot of money came in on the Chiefs. Turns out everyone who made that choice was right.
And if you didn't, well, you're probably chasing tonight.
"We'll proceed with caution on this game. I believe Roethlisberger will start but will be just about 80 percent. Despite the popularity of the Steelers, I think the money will come in on the 49ers. I don't think the line will move off -3, and I would expect some minus-3s, minus-120s out there on the 49ers by kickoff. If Batch starts, this game will go up to -5 in a flash. The total opened up at 38.5 and is currently 37.5. Expect it to continue to go down and settle in at 37."
Prediction: Line will stay at minus-3 unless Batch starts; total will drop to 37
"The Niners are coming back down to Earth a bit after a 9-1 start, having lost two of their last three. I believe San Francisco is a bit overrated. While they have done tremendous things this season and sit at 10-3, they are virtually even from the line of scrimmage (outgaining opponents by just four yards per game). And they've been extremely lucky, as they lead the league in turnover margin at plus-1.6 per game. Without the help of good fortune, this could easily be a five- or six-loss team.
"The Steelers' defense started off the year shaky, allowing 35 points to Baltimore. However, since then they have averaged just 13.6 points per game allowed. Their last three opponents scored just 19 total points. San Francisco's home crowd is going to be fired up for this game as well, and without a healthy Roethlisberger, the Steelers likely will struggle to score.
"This is a good spot for the Niners, as when two great teams meet on Monday night (.750-plus winning percentage), the home team has covered 70 percent of the time (16-7). The under also has come through at a 63 percent clip in those games as well. I have a slight lean on the Niners here."
The pick: San Francisco
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
First, let's do some grades.
I went into great detail on Friday about how The SportsBoss calculates his ratings system. I also pointed out that, going back to the start of the 2010 season, he's noticed a pretty remarkable winning trend for teams that grade out at 80 or higher based on his formula. (You can link to the story from here, but briefly, he breaks down the offense and defense into 32 statistical categories -- 16 on offense and 16 on defense -- ascribes a 0-5 grade and then adds up the points. 160 is the highest possible, which has never been achieved. This season's best is 144 points, earned by the Texans heading into Week 7.)
<!-- begin inline 1 -->The SportsBoss speaks
Here are the teams The SportsBoss felt the strongest about this week.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Rating</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Houston</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Orleans</TD><TD>92.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Green Bay</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Atlanta</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>89</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->This weekend, The Sports Boss had these teams rated the highest according to his system (table to the right).
We didn't break down the Houston game because the rating was based on season-long numbers, not just those with T.J. Yates under center. That game was a pass. We also passed on analyzing the Green Bay Packers because it felt like a trap -- new coach for the Kansas City Chiefs with Kyle Orton under center. Those were good decisions because, sometimes, the best move you can make is passing.
We did examine the Cincinnati Bengals' game, which The Sports Boss saw as an easy Cincy cover. And he was right about the cover -- it wasn't easy, though. Same with the New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons, which we also didn't review because the Falcons had smacked down the Jacksonville Jaguars the night before we spoke.
Of the eight games listed in the chart, I like that he was smart enough to ignore Houston and Green Bay. I like that he had the right numbers for Cincy, the Saints, the Boys and the Falcons.
Now, for the bad news: His analysis was slightly off on the Tennessee Titans, one of his higher rated teams for the day, against the winless Indianapolis Colts. And he missed on the Baltimore Ravens, whose defense he thought would dominate the San Diego Chargers based on his projections. "Really that Titans game seemed like a mixed issue for both teams: The Titans passed way too much and the Colts had so much success on ground that Dan Orlovsky didn't have to do much," says The Sports Boss. "The Ravens, on other hand, I loved and that was a just a big fat loss."
But 4-2 with two "no bets" is a record anyone would take to the bank.
The "80-20 rule" roundup
You also might remember a couple of weeks ago I spent a lot of time on the podcast with Dan Fabrizio of sportsinsights.com and then in the Monday Night Chaser column examining the "80-20 rule". This is the contrarian betting philosophy in which bettors take home dogs if they are getting 20 percent or less of the action. In other words, it's betting against the public. Three games closed within these parameters this weekend: Green Bay (83 percent) at -14 over Kansas City (17 percent), New Orleans (82 percent) at -7 over Minnesota (18 percent) and Cincy (86 percent) at -7 over St. Louis (14 percent).
On Sunday morning I was looking at these stats and didn't feel that comfortable making plays purely based on the 80-20 philosophy. In fact, two of my SuperContest plays were the Bengals and Saints. So I emailed Fabrizio asking, when you have multiple games in this scenario, what are the filters you should use? His answer: Dogs of eight points or more. One game filled that bucket: Green Bay vs. Kansas City. This was a game that the sharps had steamed from the opening with Green Bay as two-touchdown favorites to closing with the Pack as just 10-point favorites. A lot of money came in on the Chiefs. Turns out everyone who made that choice was right.
And if you didn't, well, you're probably chasing tonight.
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Matchup:
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Off the board all week, now 49ers minus-3, could be minus-5 if Charlie Batch starts
Over/under: Opened at 38.5, now 37.5
<OFFER>Jay Kornegay says: "The 49ers and Steelers game was off the board all week due to the Ben Roethlisberger injury. We finally posted the 49ers a 3-point favorite on Saturday despite the sketchy news on Big Ben. There's a big difference between Roethlisberger and Batch. Last week, the St. Louis Rams slipped in Sam Bradford and the line dropped two points. If Bradford doesn't start, the line would have gone up to minus-11. How much is a quarterback worth? It depends on the backup. Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Off the board all week, now 49ers minus-3, could be minus-5 if Charlie Batch starts
Over/under: Opened at 38.5, now 37.5
"We'll proceed with caution on this game. I believe Roethlisberger will start but will be just about 80 percent. Despite the popularity of the Steelers, I think the money will come in on the 49ers. I don't think the line will move off -3, and I would expect some minus-3s, minus-120s out there on the 49ers by kickoff. If Batch starts, this game will go up to -5 in a flash. The total opened up at 38.5 and is currently 37.5. Expect it to continue to go down and settle in at 37."
Prediction: Line will stay at minus-3 unless Batch starts; total will drop to 37
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Wunderdog from Wunderdog Sports says: "The Steelers might not have Roethlisberger for this game, but this team has performed well in the past without Big Ben, and their defense gives them a chance in any game. Unfortunately, that defense won't have James Harrison here thanks to his suspension."The Niners are coming back down to Earth a bit after a 9-1 start, having lost two of their last three. I believe San Francisco is a bit overrated. While they have done tremendous things this season and sit at 10-3, they are virtually even from the line of scrimmage (outgaining opponents by just four yards per game). And they've been extremely lucky, as they lead the league in turnover margin at plus-1.6 per game. Without the help of good fortune, this could easily be a five- or six-loss team.
"The Steelers' defense started off the year shaky, allowing 35 points to Baltimore. However, since then they have averaged just 13.6 points per game allowed. Their last three opponents scored just 19 total points. San Francisco's home crowd is going to be fired up for this game as well, and without a healthy Roethlisberger, the Steelers likely will struggle to score.
"This is a good spot for the Niners, as when two great teams meet on Monday night (.750-plus winning percentage), the home team has covered 70 percent of the time (16-7). The under also has come through at a 63 percent clip in those games as well. I have a slight lean on the Niners here."
