Monday Night Chaser: Falcons-Saints
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
On Mondays this NFL season, you've been accustomed to seeing analysis from Chad Millman, Behind the Bets boss, followed by a gambling breakdown of the "Monday Night Football" line and total from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton and a professional handicapper.
This week, however, Chad is on vacation; thus, the Monday Night Chaser will have analysis only from Vegas experts.
Doesn't mean, though, that there aren't plenty of people chasing money after a crazy Sunday of football.
Jay Kornegay says: "This game opened New Orleans -7 and a total of 53. During the week it dropped to -6, but then settled in at -6.5 and 52.5. As usual, the holiday crowds are much lighter than normal. This is the slowest football week of the year. The sharps and the general public have holiday agendas that don't include wagering on these games. They will, however, be back in full force in just a couple of days.
"Even though it's on a smaller scale, booking these games remains the same. We do expect most of the money to show up on the Saints, which will push some books to -7. The money will be small, though, so some books will keep it at -6.5. At kickoff, you'll see a good mixture of -6.5 and -7 across town. The total will be bet up a bit and should close at 53. Happy holidays and may your favorite teams cover!"
Prediction: Line will close at -6.5 or -7; total will close at 53
The Sports Boss says: "I set this number at New Orleans -6 and it currently is at -6.5. The Saints have the edge in three of my five databases/models, and in my Power Rating New Orleans is No. 2 (32nd-ranked SOS), while Atlanta is No. 9 (23rd-ranked SOS). Both teams need this game for different reasons. The Falcons want to grab a higher playoff spot while the Saints are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye."
"Atlanta scored a 96 in my main model in the prior meeting this season, outperforming New Orleans, but losing ATS -- a rare case I have found, as teams scoring 96-plus in my model cover over 80 percent of the time.
"New Orleans typically struggles in games when it doesn't run the ball well. The Saints are 1-3 SU when rushing for less than 100 yards, with the only win against the Falcons earlier this season when they rushed for 41 yards. New Orleans was really outplayed in that game.
"Taking it all in, and understanding that this a division rivalry, and for the most part numbers in all my analysis are mixed, it's too tough to not take the points in this game. I actually think Atlanta could win this game SU. Keep in mind that the Superdome will not have the effect it can on other teams at times because the Falcons play there annually, and they also play in a dome themselves."
The pick: Atlanta; no opinion on the total
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
On Mondays this NFL season, you've been accustomed to seeing analysis from Chad Millman, Behind the Bets boss, followed by a gambling breakdown of the "Monday Night Football" line and total from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton and a professional handicapper.
This week, however, Chad is on vacation; thus, the Monday Night Chaser will have analysis only from Vegas experts.
Doesn't mean, though, that there aren't plenty of people chasing money after a crazy Sunday of football.
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Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened at Saints -7, now Saints -6.5
Over/Under: Opened at 53, still 52.5
<OFFER>Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened at Saints -7, now Saints -6.5
Over/Under: Opened at 53, still 52.5
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Jay Kornegay says: "This game opened New Orleans -7 and a total of 53. During the week it dropped to -6, but then settled in at -6.5 and 52.5. As usual, the holiday crowds are much lighter than normal. This is the slowest football week of the year. The sharps and the general public have holiday agendas that don't include wagering on these games. They will, however, be back in full force in just a couple of days.
"Even though it's on a smaller scale, booking these games remains the same. We do expect most of the money to show up on the Saints, which will push some books to -7. The money will be small, though, so some books will keep it at -6.5. At kickoff, you'll see a good mixture of -6.5 and -7 across town. The total will be bet up a bit and should close at 53. Happy holidays and may your favorite teams cover!"
Prediction: Line will close at -6.5 or -7; total will close at 53
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The Sports Boss says: "I set this number at New Orleans -6 and it currently is at -6.5. The Saints have the edge in three of my five databases/models, and in my Power Rating New Orleans is No. 2 (32nd-ranked SOS), while Atlanta is No. 9 (23rd-ranked SOS). Both teams need this game for different reasons. The Falcons want to grab a higher playoff spot while the Saints are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye."
"Atlanta scored a 96 in my main model in the prior meeting this season, outperforming New Orleans, but losing ATS -- a rare case I have found, as teams scoring 96-plus in my model cover over 80 percent of the time.
"New Orleans typically struggles in games when it doesn't run the ball well. The Saints are 1-3 SU when rushing for less than 100 yards, with the only win against the Falcons earlier this season when they rushed for 41 yards. New Orleans was really outplayed in that game.
"Taking it all in, and understanding that this a division rivalry, and for the most part numbers in all my analysis are mixed, it's too tough to not take the points in this game. I actually think Atlanta could win this game SU. Keep in mind that the Superdome will not have the effect it can on other teams at times because the Falcons play there annually, and they also play in a dome themselves."
The pick: Atlanta; no opinion on the total
