Heat, Lakers and Bulls best title bets
Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Jimmy Vaccaro is the dean of Las Vegas bookmakers.
He has pretty much seen it all since coming to Vegas from his native Pittsburgh in 1975 as he has worked up and down the Strip -- including a legendary stint at the Mirage, where he was the only one to book the Buster Douglas upset of Mike Tyson in 1990 -- and is currently the director of sports operations and public relations for Lucky's Race and Sports Books. Ask him how teams in any sport will fare in any situation and he will speak from experience, including how wise guys and squares are likely to bet the game.
Even he is floored by what to expect this NBA season.
"We've never been down this road before," he said as the season was preparing to tip off this Sunday. "We can look at past trends of back-to-back games and East Coast-West Coast travel and some of the other factors that are coming into play with this condensed 66-game schedule, but some teams are going to be playing nine games in 12 days, so there's no history on that. Who knows how teams are going to react?"
But if you think he's afraid to book it, you've got another think coming.
<OFFER>"It's an educated guess on our part, but the good thing is it's uncertain on both sides of the counter," he said. "The bettors are guessing, too, but they have definite opinions on the way things are going to unfold and they'll be stepping to the window early and often. I think this will lead to increased handle on the games and we'll see some big line moves. I like it."
Let's try to make some sense out of the uncertain. Here's a look at the top seven contenders for the NBA title (according to the future books at Lucky's), plus an early-season team to back and an early-season team to fade and a look at a season-long prop:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->NBA Futures
*courtesy of Lucky's Race and Sports Books
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Open (6/22)</TH><TH>Current (12/22)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Miami Heat</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>2-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Lakers</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>9-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Bulls</TD><TD>5-1</TD><TD>6-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma City Thunder</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>6-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>10-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Clippers</TD><TD>50-1</TD><TD>13-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Knicks</TD><TD>20-1</TD><TD>14-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Boston Celtics</TD><TD>10-1</TD><TD>15-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Orlando Magic</TD><TD>18-1</TD><TD>25-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD>30-1</TD><TD>27-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Antonio Spurs</TD><TD>18-1</TD><TD>30-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Portland Trail Blazers</TD><TD>25-1</TD><TD>35-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Jersey Nets</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>50-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>75-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Atlanta Hawks</TD><TD>40-1</TD><TD>55-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Denver Nuggets</TD><TD>28-1</TD><TD>65-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston Rockets</TD><TD>70-1</TD><TD>70-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indiana Pacers</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>75-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>80-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>40-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philadelphia 76ers</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Milwaukee Bucks</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Utah Jazz</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Minnesota Timberwolves</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Sacramento Kings</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>125-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Charlotte Bobcats</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>125-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Washington Wizards</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD>150-1</TD><TD>150-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Raptors</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>150-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->1. Miami Heat (2-1)
The Heat underachieved most of last season but came on strong to make the NBA Finals before getting upset by the Dallas Mavericks. They're again the favorite and with the Big Three of LeBron James,Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh intact, that continuity should help them while a lot of other teams are getting used to new lineups. They're involved with the first big line move of the season. "We opened the Mavericks minus-4 against the Heat on Christmas Day, but a lot of bettors like to go against a team when they're getting their championship rings," Vaccaro said. "You also have them going against the team they beat, so that's added incentive for the Heat and they're now a 3-point road favorite [Note: It has been bet even higher to minus-4 since our interview earlier in the week]."
2. L.A. Lakers (9-2)
The Lakers have been bet down from their opening odds of 6-1, but part of that came when bettors thought they were getting Chris Paul before the NBA commissioner nixed the deal. Oops. The Lakers have since traded away Lamar Odom and are dealing with the distraction of Kobe Bryant's divorce, but don't just assume they're going in the tank. If anything, this could lead to betting value on them early in the season.
3. Chicago Bulls (6-1)
The Bulls should easily win their division, but can Derrick Rose get them over the hump in the East like Michael Jordan did versus the Pistons in the early '90s? Richard Hamilton might be the missing piece to give them another scoring option along with Luol Deng to keep the pressure off Rose. The best bets for Bulls backers will likely be when they're on the road.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-1)
The Thunder are a popular dark horse pick this season, which is why their odds are so low. Two-time defending scoring champ Kevin Durant is obviously the key, but Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kendrick Perkins and the unheralded Serge Ibaka keep it from being a one-man show. The only bad thing for bettors is the oddsmakers are already onto this team and have sucked most of the value out of them: you'll be paying a premium to back them at home and not getting enough points with them on the road.
5. Dallas Mavericks (10-1)
The defending champs aren't getting that much respect, but that's often the case with those perceived to win from "team play." It has been the same with the San Antonio Spurs the past decade, a championship team that bettors tend to ignore (often at their own peril). Dirk Nowitzki had plenty of help on offense, but the biggest question is who will big up on the defensive end for the departed Tyson Chandler? The over is probably the way to go early in the season.
6. L.A. Clippers (13-1)
Paul's arrival caused the biggest adjustment in the NBA future books. The Clippers opened 50-1 back in June and were dropped to 15-1 at Lucky's after the trade was announced (and not overturned by Stern), then bettors continued to get on the bandwagon and have bet it down to 13-1. Yes, Paul and Blake Griffin will be nightly features on "SportsCenter's" Top 10 plays, but the betting value will likely be to go against them as they'll be overpriced.
7. New York Knicks (14-1)
Coming from the No. 1 media market, it's a little surprising that the Knicks have flown a little under the radar -- relatively speaking -- but bettors have noticed as the Knicks being bet down from their opening odds of 20-1. The addition of Chandler to the dynamic duo of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire gives them one of the best frontcourts in the game, and they should come out of the gate as a good team to back.
<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER>
Backers, faders and props
Team to ride: Boston Celtics This is a little contrarian as the conventional wisdom is this is an "old team" that will have problems in back-to-back games, but that perception should give us a few extra points and make them a profitable play early in the season (even if their straight-up record is subpar). And veterans should know their bodies and be able to pace themselves for these situations.
Teams to fade: OKC Thunder, L.A. Clippers and Orlando Magic will be tough to back. If Dwight Howard stays, how motivated will he be? And if he leaves, will oddsmakers be able to adjust enough for his loss?
Prop bet:Which L.A. team will have most regular-season wins? The Lakers opened minus-250 (risk $250 to win $100) with the Clippers at plus-200 (odds of 2-1, or risk $100 to profit $200) and it was bet all the way down to Lakers minus-125. That's a huge move.
"We might have given a little value on the Clippers," Vaccaro said, "but there was an overreaction when the Clippers won their first preseason meeting. They were obviously trying to make a statement in that game while the Lakers had nothing to play for. The value is probably on the Lakers now."
Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Jimmy Vaccaro is the dean of Las Vegas bookmakers.
He has pretty much seen it all since coming to Vegas from his native Pittsburgh in 1975 as he has worked up and down the Strip -- including a legendary stint at the Mirage, where he was the only one to book the Buster Douglas upset of Mike Tyson in 1990 -- and is currently the director of sports operations and public relations for Lucky's Race and Sports Books. Ask him how teams in any sport will fare in any situation and he will speak from experience, including how wise guys and squares are likely to bet the game.
Even he is floored by what to expect this NBA season.
"We've never been down this road before," he said as the season was preparing to tip off this Sunday. "We can look at past trends of back-to-back games and East Coast-West Coast travel and some of the other factors that are coming into play with this condensed 66-game schedule, but some teams are going to be playing nine games in 12 days, so there's no history on that. Who knows how teams are going to react?"
But if you think he's afraid to book it, you've got another think coming.
<OFFER>"It's an educated guess on our part, but the good thing is it's uncertain on both sides of the counter," he said. "The bettors are guessing, too, but they have definite opinions on the way things are going to unfold and they'll be stepping to the window early and often. I think this will lead to increased handle on the games and we'll see some big line moves. I like it."
Let's try to make some sense out of the uncertain. Here's a look at the top seven contenders for the NBA title (according to the future books at Lucky's), plus an early-season team to back and an early-season team to fade and a look at a season-long prop:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->NBA Futures
*courtesy of Lucky's Race and Sports Books
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Team</TH><TH>Open (6/22)</TH><TH>Current (12/22)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Miami Heat</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>2-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Lakers</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>9-2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Bulls</TD><TD>5-1</TD><TD>6-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Oklahoma City Thunder</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>6-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>10-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Los Angeles Clippers</TD><TD>50-1</TD><TD>13-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Knicks</TD><TD>20-1</TD><TD>14-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Boston Celtics</TD><TD>10-1</TD><TD>15-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Orlando Magic</TD><TD>18-1</TD><TD>25-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD>30-1</TD><TD>27-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Antonio Spurs</TD><TD>18-1</TD><TD>30-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Portland Trail Blazers</TD><TD>25-1</TD><TD>35-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Jersey Nets</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>50-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>75-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Atlanta Hawks</TD><TD>40-1</TD><TD>55-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Denver Nuggets</TD><TD>28-1</TD><TD>65-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Houston Rockets</TD><TD>70-1</TD><TD>70-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indiana Pacers</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>75-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>80-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>40-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Philadelphia 76ers</TD><TD>60-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Milwaukee Bucks</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Utah Jazz</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Minnesota Timberwolves</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Sacramento Kings</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>125-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Charlotte Bobcats</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>125-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Washington Wizards</TD><TD>100-1</TD><TD>100-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD>150-1</TD><TD>150-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Toronto Raptors</TD><TD>200-1</TD><TD>150-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->1. Miami Heat (2-1)
The Heat underachieved most of last season but came on strong to make the NBA Finals before getting upset by the Dallas Mavericks. They're again the favorite and with the Big Three of LeBron James,Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh intact, that continuity should help them while a lot of other teams are getting used to new lineups. They're involved with the first big line move of the season. "We opened the Mavericks minus-4 against the Heat on Christmas Day, but a lot of bettors like to go against a team when they're getting their championship rings," Vaccaro said. "You also have them going against the team they beat, so that's added incentive for the Heat and they're now a 3-point road favorite [Note: It has been bet even higher to minus-4 since our interview earlier in the week]."
2. L.A. Lakers (9-2)
The Lakers have been bet down from their opening odds of 6-1, but part of that came when bettors thought they were getting Chris Paul before the NBA commissioner nixed the deal. Oops. The Lakers have since traded away Lamar Odom and are dealing with the distraction of Kobe Bryant's divorce, but don't just assume they're going in the tank. If anything, this could lead to betting value on them early in the season.
3. Chicago Bulls (6-1)
The Bulls should easily win their division, but can Derrick Rose get them over the hump in the East like Michael Jordan did versus the Pistons in the early '90s? Richard Hamilton might be the missing piece to give them another scoring option along with Luol Deng to keep the pressure off Rose. The best bets for Bulls backers will likely be when they're on the road.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-1)
The Thunder are a popular dark horse pick this season, which is why their odds are so low. Two-time defending scoring champ Kevin Durant is obviously the key, but Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kendrick Perkins and the unheralded Serge Ibaka keep it from being a one-man show. The only bad thing for bettors is the oddsmakers are already onto this team and have sucked most of the value out of them: you'll be paying a premium to back them at home and not getting enough points with them on the road.
5. Dallas Mavericks (10-1)
The defending champs aren't getting that much respect, but that's often the case with those perceived to win from "team play." It has been the same with the San Antonio Spurs the past decade, a championship team that bettors tend to ignore (often at their own peril). Dirk Nowitzki had plenty of help on offense, but the biggest question is who will big up on the defensive end for the departed Tyson Chandler? The over is probably the way to go early in the season.
6. L.A. Clippers (13-1)
Paul's arrival caused the biggest adjustment in the NBA future books. The Clippers opened 50-1 back in June and were dropped to 15-1 at Lucky's after the trade was announced (and not overturned by Stern), then bettors continued to get on the bandwagon and have bet it down to 13-1. Yes, Paul and Blake Griffin will be nightly features on "SportsCenter's" Top 10 plays, but the betting value will likely be to go against them as they'll be overpriced.
7. New York Knicks (14-1)
Coming from the No. 1 media market, it's a little surprising that the Knicks have flown a little under the radar -- relatively speaking -- but bettors have noticed as the Knicks being bet down from their opening odds of 20-1. The addition of Chandler to the dynamic duo of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire gives them one of the best frontcourts in the game, and they should come out of the gate as a good team to back.
<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER>
Backers, faders and props
Team to ride: Boston Celtics This is a little contrarian as the conventional wisdom is this is an "old team" that will have problems in back-to-back games, but that perception should give us a few extra points and make them a profitable play early in the season (even if their straight-up record is subpar). And veterans should know their bodies and be able to pace themselves for these situations.
Teams to fade: OKC Thunder, L.A. Clippers and Orlando Magic will be tough to back. If Dwight Howard stays, how motivated will he be? And if he leaves, will oddsmakers be able to adjust enough for his loss?
Prop bet:Which L.A. team will have most regular-season wins? The Lakers opened minus-250 (risk $250 to win $100) with the Clippers at plus-200 (odds of 2-1, or risk $100 to profit $200) and it was bet all the way down to Lakers minus-125. That's a huge move.
"We might have given a little value on the Clippers," Vaccaro said, "but there was an overreaction when the Clippers won their first preseason meeting. They were obviously trying to make a statement in that game while the Lakers had nothing to play for. The value is probably on the Lakers now."
