Week 17 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

Week 17 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider


Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:


TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:


Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:


Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).




Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles


Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

St. Louis Rams
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons


Here are the Week 17 Vegas NFL Rankings:
<OFFER><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Week 17 Vegas NFL Rankings

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Home-Field</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Bettor Bias</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>100</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>101</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>3.5</TD><TD>97.5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>98.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>97.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>98</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>95.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>94.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>94.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>92.5</TD><TD>0.5</TD><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>92</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-9</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-11</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>91</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-18</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-18</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>88</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-20</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>87</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>87</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>86.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>85.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>t-25</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>84.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>84</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>83</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>82.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>82</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>82</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>81.5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>81.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Week-to-Week Injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Ben Roethlisberger: 4 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Sam Bradford: 3 points</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=6>Christian Ponder: 1 point</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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The following injuries are season-ending, and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans minus-3 (Matt Schaub); Bears minus-3 (Jay Cutler); Chiefs minus-2 (Matt Cassel); Vikings minus-1 (Adrian Peterson).


Most Overrated and Underrated Teams


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<TABLE style="WIDTH: 290px"><THEAD><TR><TH>Wins</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Best Team (Rk)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 100px">Worst Team (Rk)</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>10 or more</TD><TD>Packers (1)</TD><TD>Texans (15)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 or 9 wins</TD><TD>Falcons (8)</TD><TD>Titans (t-20)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 or 7 wins</TD><TD>Eagles (7)</TD><TD>Bills (t-25)</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 or less</TD><TD>Dolphins (t-13)</TD><TD>Rams (32)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<!-- end inline 2 -->All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the New England Patriots are 12-3 SU but only 8-7 ATS; the Carolina Panthers are 6-9 SU but 9-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.




Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 17 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the Saints, Patriots, 49ers and more.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Projected Week 17 NFL Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Road</TH><TH>Home</TH><TH>Open</TH><TH>True Power</TH><TH>Point-Spread Power</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>-7</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-14.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>-11.5</TD><TD>-16.5</TD><TD>-17.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-1</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>+10.5</TD><TD>+13.5</TD><TD>+16</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers**</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>-13</TD><TD>-14</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-9.5</TD><TD>-10</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>-4.5</TD><TD>-2.5</TD><TD>-2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>Houston Texans**</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>-5</TD><TD>-5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3.5</TD><TD>-3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-6.5</TD><TD>-6.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>-14</TD><TD>-12</TD><TD>-12.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+2.5</TD><TD>+2.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>NL</TD><TD>+9</TD><TD>+9.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>-1.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>-0.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3</TD><TD>-3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=5>* Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections) </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD colSpan=5>** Consider uncertainty about starters' playing time</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.

Thanks.

5 points For HFA at San Fran, is that a typo? It was always 3 the whole year. Maybe it makes sense now after all these wins.