Early Week 17 NFL Betting Trends

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The early Week 17 NFL betting trends

Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
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LAS VEGAS -- Earlier in the year, we described the Hilton SuperContest as a horse race. Sans Souci set the early pace, Pagermager made a big move to take seemingly take command, but then Sans Souci came on in the stretch. Now they're neck and neck heading to the wire.


Sans Souci and Pagermager. Pagermager and Sans Souci. Who's it going to be?


Usually it's a cavalry charge to the finish line with a dozen or so having a chance to rally for the victory, but these two have separated themselves from the field, so it's fitting that they're battling it out for the title in the closing week of the 17-week SuperContest that runs the entire NFL season. Each contestant -- and there were a record 517 entries putting up $1,500 apiece in this year's field -- makes five plays a week against the spread. SuperContestants receive one point for each win and half a point for each push.


In the opening week of the season, Sans Souci was one of just three to post a perfect 5-0 mark with Pagermager right behind at 4-0-1. They were tied for first after Week 2 at 8-1-1 before Sans Souci bolted to the lead with another 5-0 to improve to 13-1-1. Pagermager was the talk of the tournament as he came back to take the lead in Week 10 and continued to hit around 75 percent until going 1-4 in Week 15, allowing Sans Souci to regain the lead by one point.


They both went 4-1 in Week 15, so Sans Souci still has that lead heading into the final Sunday with a record of 54-22-4 (71.1 percent after pushes are disregarded) for 56 contest points, while Pagermager is 53-23-4 (69.7 percent) for 55 contest points. They're the only two SuperContests that are above the 67 percent threshold that pays an aggregate $10,000 bonus. The only other contestant within striking distance of the leaders is Texasex91, who is 52-26-2 (66.7 percent), and could still steal the $310,200 first-place prize if Sans Souci and Pagermager were to post losing records -- he trails Pagermager by 2 points and Sans Souci by 3.


Note: In a little-known rule, the tiebreaker for first place is best record over the final three weeks. Sans Souci, 8-2 the past two weeks, would win a tie with Pagermager, 5-5 going into final week. Texasex91, 7-2-1, would win the tiebreaker if he were to close from the clouds.


Note No. 2: I haven't mentioned them previously because it's so far-fetched, but there are three SuperContestants who are technically not eliminated from a chance at the title. Kokomo, O.T.B. and Daynamites have 51 points apiece. If one of those goes 5-0 while Sans Souci goes 0-5, Pagermager goes no better than 1-4 and Texasex91 goes no better than 2-2-1, that person would pull off the impossible.


Now that would be a wild finish!


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Where is the money going in Week 17?

<OFFER>Week 17 is always the wackiest for NFL point spreads as we have teams battling for playoff spots and seedings but also some teams expected to rest starters. Oddsmakers and handicappers are also trying to figure out which also-rans will be motivated to finish with a win, while others will simply be playing out the string. So, we end up seeing odd lines like Tennessee minus-3 at playoff-bound Houston and Detroit favored at Green Bay (still off the board at most books as of Tuesday morning), but we'll try to discern the reasons behind some of the early-week line moves since they came out at the Hilton after the Christmas Eve games.


• The Baltimore Ravens, who already clinched a playoff berth but can still get a first-round bye in the AFC, were minus-3 versus the Cincinnati Bengals on the advance line at the Hilton last week, but it's gone to minus-2.5 with the Bengals needing a win more. Let the bettor beware, however, that just because a team is in a must-win situation, doesn't mean it will win. (If it was so good to just flip the switch when it wanted to win, it wouldn't be in this situation.)


• The New York Jets are also trying to get that last AFC wild-card berth, but Hilton oddsmakers still made the Miami Dolphins minus-1.5 in this matchup. It opened as high as minus-2.5 offshore and has been bet down, so there has been support for the Jets but not too much.


• The AFC West is still up in the air with the Denver Broncos controlling their own destiny and the Oakland Raiders hoping to make up their one-game deficit (or sneak in as a wild card if the Bengals and Jets stumble). The Chargers were minus-3 against the Raiders on the advance line last week, but with their elimination and the Raiders' added motivation, that line has swung to the Raiders minus-3. The Broncos were minus-4 versus the Chiefs in advance wagering, but that has come down to minus-3.5 and even minus-3 at some books. The Broncos need the game, but there are a lot of people buying (literally) into the theory that Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton would love to knock his former team out of the playoffs.


• The Sunday night game is a winner-take-all battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants for the NFC East title, as the loser doesn't get a wild-card berth. On the advance line (which was posted before knowing whether the Giants would still be alive for the division title), the Giants were minus-2.5, and it's been adjusted to minus-3 off their win over the Jets. (The Cowboys' 20-7 loss to the Eagles is pretty much a nonfactor, as they didn't need that game and pretty much laid down after Tony Romo was hurt.) Romo is listed as probable as of this writing Tuesday morning, and that's what the 3-point spread is based on; it will obviously increase if that changes.



Former champs and other familiar names



Jarhead, the 2006 SuperContest winner (and who swept the three biggest contests in town that season), is the new leader among the list of past champions and familiar names we've been tracking all year. Jarhead went 5-0 in Week 16 with the Bengals, Browns, Giants, Steelers and Saints all covering and improved to 45-32-3 for 46.5 contest points. He has a shot at finishing in the money if he can roll another 5-0 or possibly if he goes 4-1 depending on how those ahead of him fare.


Bill Simmons of Grantland.com, playing under the alias Simbotics, took a step back at 2-3 in Week 16 to hurt his chances of cashing for the second year in a row. He's at 45-33-2 for 46 points and has nearly been caught by the host of this blog, ESPN The Magazine editor in chief Chad Millman's Dead Money Millman entry, which went 5-0 this past week. He improved to 44-33-3 for 45.5 points and has at least a shot at the money if he repeats that performance. Bruno's Boys and Richard Stand, winners of the SuperContest in 2001 and 2010, respectively, both went 2-3 to stand at 44.5 and 43.5 and are playing out the string.


Two-time champ Fezzik did go 4-1 to improve his mini-contest record to 7-2-1 (same as Millman), but it's probably going to take a 13-2 record to win that $10,000 bonus.
 

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