CFB Bowl Betting Bonanza Part 3
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Happy New Christmas Year, my dear degenerates. By now, you have suffered, endured, enjoyed, ignored the first two versions of the bowl betting bonanza. And, the truth is, if you followed the advice of my first two participants, Brian Edwards and Sal Selvaggio, you'd have won, well, not much heading into Wednesday's games. But that doesn't mean we won't keep trying. There are still lots of bowl games to be played.
For BBB III, I asked Paul Stone, Bryan Leonard, VegasRunner and Teddy Covers to give me their breakdowns for the bowls taking place between Thursday and Saturday. Plus, in addition to the four factors Kenny White laid out in BBB I and the next two factors I listed in BBB II, I am adding one more, which is at No. 7 below.
1. How a team ended the regular season: "Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot?" White asks.
2. How much excitement a team will have headed into the bowl: "You're looking for a team that is thrilled to be there and looking forward to the game," White says.
A subset of No. 2 is bowl experience, but not for the reason you think: "I'm more likely to give a team a higher ranking if it hasn't been to a bowl for a while because that will generate excitement amongst the program and fans," White says.
3. How much time off a team has had before the bowl:"When you are not playing, it's hard to simulate game speed. It's like driving on the highway at 30 miles per hour," White says.
4. The weather on schools' respective campuses: "The SEC, Pac-12, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East," White says. "I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate."
5. Throw away any games against nonbowl competition. "What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class," Vegas vet Bryan Leonard says.
6. Emphasize a team's road performance over its home performance.
7. Consider how the conference is doing in bowls.
Champs Sports Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When:</B> Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m. ET
Line: FSU minus-3
Over/Under: 46.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
<OFFER>
Stone says: "Both of these proud college football giants had grander aspirations than the Champs Sports Bowl in 2011, so identifying the more motivated team can be a tricky, if not downright impossible, proposition. This season, Florida State quickly ascended into the upper echelon of the polls, being ranked in the top five before an early-September showdown with Oklahoma. As always seems the case, many pundits were forecasting the Fighting Irish's return to college football's elite, but again they were wrong as Notre Dame clearly remains several players short of seriously being considered in that discussion.
"With the game being played in Florida and weighing the Seminoles' overall team speed advantage, I would recommend taking Florida State and laying the three points."
Valero Alamo Bowl
Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears
When: Dec. 29, 9 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor minus-9.5
Over/Under: 79
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "To the untrained, naked eye, having a Heisman Trophy winner in your corner during the bowl season may seem like a good thing. However, with history as our guide, Baylor and its trophy-toting quarterback Robert Griffin III have quite an albatross around their necks entering their bowl game with the Washington Huskies. Despite covers by Heisman Trophy winners Mark Ingram (Alabama) and Cam Newton (Auburn) in the past two BCS national title games, teams boasting the Heisman winner are just 4-8 [against the spread] in bowl games since 1999. With Chris Polk, Washington should be able to run the ball against the Bears' porous run defense.
"Take the points and back the Huskies."
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Brigham Young Cougars vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
When:</B> Dec. 30, noon ET
Line: BYU minus-1
Over/Under: 55
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "Newly independent Brigham Young finished its season with eight victories in its final nine games, but a glance at its victims during that run reveals that a three-point home victory over WAC entry Utah State was perhaps the crown jewel. Although the preseason loss of jack-of-all-trades Damaris Johnson took away Tulsa's chief threat, the Golden Hurricane recovered nicely to carve out a 8-4 record.
"All four of Tulsa's defeats -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State and Houston -- were to teams ranked in the nation's top 10 at some point during the season. Tulsa has won its last three bowl games and has a well-seasoned, versatile quarterback in G.J. Kinne.
"I had this game ranked as even; now that the line has moved that way, I'll pass."
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones
When:</B> Dec. 30, 3:20 p.m. ET
Line: Rutgers minus-1.5
Over/Under: 45
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "At first glance, Rutgers seems like the right side, given how close this [Yankee Stadium] is to its campus. However, Iowa State is giving this matchup a lot of emphasis as the Cyclones try to enhance their program's brand. Their 37-31 double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State in mid-November ultimately kept the Cowboys out of the BCS title game. Quite simply, Iowa State is the better team and getting points. Take the points and the Cyclones."
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
When:</B> Dec. 30, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: Miss St. minus-6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "All things being equal, if this was an early-season nonconference game, I would likely take a longer look at a favored Mississippi State squad. And, while Mississippi State is clearly the better team and plays in inarguably the nation's toughest conference, this game probably does not carry the significance of a typical SEC game in October. Take the more focused Demon Deacons and seven points if you can still find it."
Insight Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oklahoma Sooners
When:</B> Dec. 30, 10 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma minus-14
Over/Under: 57.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "Some have criticized Bob Stoops' performance in bowl games [4-8 ATS since assuming control of the program in 1999], but the Sooners' primary goal each season is quite simple -- play for the national championship.
"Like many other top-shelf programs, if the Sooners slip past the BCS bowls and into the next tier of nonmarquee games, sometimes their collective focus is well below 100 percent.
"The flow of the 2011 season would certainly seem to fit the mold of an unfocused Oklahoma team as the Sooners, who were No. 1 in the nation in mid-October, fell several rungs down the ladder to the Insight Bowl after losses to Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Possessing a host of motivational and technical edges in its corner, I recommend taking Iowa plus-14."
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats
When:</B> Dec. 31, noon ET
Line: Texas A&M minus-10
Over/Under: 67
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Leonard says: "The Aggies do have the advantage of playing so close to home, but they have had to deal with several tough distractions recently. Also, laying 10 points in a bowl game before Jan. 1 is always something you have to be concerned about.
"And look at the Big 12 overall: It has been bad against the spread in bowls over the past five years -- 13-26. It's a high offense conference, and, when you have extra time to prepare, you are able to neutralize some of that. Northwestern has performed better in the bowls recently and has covered the past three years. They are a good underdog, so, at 10 points, there is value there."
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Utah Utes
When:</B> Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia Tech minus-2.5
Over/Under: 51
Pick Center analysis
Leonard says: "I like the points with Utah against Georgia Tech. One advantage you have against an option type of offense is you that you usually only struggle against it when you don't have time to prepare for it. Georgia Tech, the past few years in bowls, has lost all three outright as favorites and that makes sense.
"Utah has played Air Force in the past, so they know this kind of offense, and defensively they have given up few points. Since the team has time to prepare and has seen the offense, I took the points and Utah."
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UCLA Bruins
When:</B> Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Illinois minus-3
Over/Under: 47
Watch | Pick Center analysis
VR says: "The Bruins are facing too many off-field issues and couldn't compete versus Oregon in the head coach's final game, so there is no reason to expect that they'll show up vs. the Illini. UCLA's defense allows 192 yards per game on the ground and 5.7 yards per carry, which should allow Illinois to have plenty of success and help it set up an efficient passing game."
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
When:</B> Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Vanderbilt minus-1.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Covers says: "Initially I was disappointed in this matchup, it's 'bet on' vs. 'bet on,' two teams I wanted to support. I thought the spread would go up, and it hasn't. It's a virtual home game for Vandy, and I have a lot of respect for this team. Defensively, it played phenomenal football all year long, and it got a lot better as the season progressed.
"Cincy is good, but it struggles to step up in class. You don't take the home-field advantage lightly; look at Louisiana Tech, for example. I think Vandy wins and covers."
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers
When:</B> Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn minus-3
Over/Under: 48.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Covers says: "I am little surprised Auburn has taken as much money as it has. You can catch Virginia plus-3. Since the start of hiring season, Auburn has lost its offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, and both guys took paycuts to leave. The other issue is they had this great inside-outside combination at running back, but leading rusher Michael Dyer is not going to play. He is a big loss.
"Virginia was an overachiever all year long. And their coach is staying put, so that is good. They have a better D, and I like seeing that for a team catching points. This is a live 'dog in my opinion."
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Happy New Christmas Year, my dear degenerates. By now, you have suffered, endured, enjoyed, ignored the first two versions of the bowl betting bonanza. And, the truth is, if you followed the advice of my first two participants, Brian Edwards and Sal Selvaggio, you'd have won, well, not much heading into Wednesday's games. But that doesn't mean we won't keep trying. There are still lots of bowl games to be played.
For BBB III, I asked Paul Stone, Bryan Leonard, VegasRunner and Teddy Covers to give me their breakdowns for the bowls taking place between Thursday and Saturday. Plus, in addition to the four factors Kenny White laid out in BBB I and the next two factors I listed in BBB II, I am adding one more, which is at No. 7 below.
1. How a team ended the regular season: "Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot?" White asks.
2. How much excitement a team will have headed into the bowl: "You're looking for a team that is thrilled to be there and looking forward to the game," White says.
A subset of No. 2 is bowl experience, but not for the reason you think: "I'm more likely to give a team a higher ranking if it hasn't been to a bowl for a while because that will generate excitement amongst the program and fans," White says.
3. How much time off a team has had before the bowl:"When you are not playing, it's hard to simulate game speed. It's like driving on the highway at 30 miles per hour," White says.
4. The weather on schools' respective campuses: "The SEC, Pac-12, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East," White says. "I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate."
5. Throw away any games against nonbowl competition. "What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class," Vegas vet Bryan Leonard says.
6. Emphasize a team's road performance over its home performance.
7. Consider how the conference is doing in bowls.
Champs Sports Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When:</B> Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m. ET
Line: FSU minus-3
Over/Under: 46.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
<OFFER>
Stone says: "Both of these proud college football giants had grander aspirations than the Champs Sports Bowl in 2011, so identifying the more motivated team can be a tricky, if not downright impossible, proposition. This season, Florida State quickly ascended into the upper echelon of the polls, being ranked in the top five before an early-September showdown with Oklahoma. As always seems the case, many pundits were forecasting the Fighting Irish's return to college football's elite, but again they were wrong as Notre Dame clearly remains several players short of seriously being considered in that discussion.
"With the game being played in Florida and weighing the Seminoles' overall team speed advantage, I would recommend taking Florida State and laying the three points."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Valero Alamo Bowl
Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears
When: Dec. 29, 9 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor minus-9.5
Over/Under: 79
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "To the untrained, naked eye, having a Heisman Trophy winner in your corner during the bowl season may seem like a good thing. However, with history as our guide, Baylor and its trophy-toting quarterback Robert Griffin III have quite an albatross around their necks entering their bowl game with the Washington Huskies. Despite covers by Heisman Trophy winners Mark Ingram (Alabama) and Cam Newton (Auburn) in the past two BCS national title games, teams boasting the Heisman winner are just 4-8 [against the spread] in bowl games since 1999. With Chris Polk, Washington should be able to run the ball against the Bears' porous run defense.
"Take the points and back the Huskies."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Brigham Young Cougars vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
When:</B> Dec. 30, noon ET
Line: BYU minus-1
Over/Under: 55
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "Newly independent Brigham Young finished its season with eight victories in its final nine games, but a glance at its victims during that run reveals that a three-point home victory over WAC entry Utah State was perhaps the crown jewel. Although the preseason loss of jack-of-all-trades Damaris Johnson took away Tulsa's chief threat, the Golden Hurricane recovered nicely to carve out a 8-4 record.
"All four of Tulsa's defeats -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State and Houston -- were to teams ranked in the nation's top 10 at some point during the season. Tulsa has won its last three bowl games and has a well-seasoned, versatile quarterback in G.J. Kinne.
"I had this game ranked as even; now that the line has moved that way, I'll pass."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones
When:</B> Dec. 30, 3:20 p.m. ET
Line: Rutgers minus-1.5
Over/Under: 45
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "At first glance, Rutgers seems like the right side, given how close this [Yankee Stadium] is to its campus. However, Iowa State is giving this matchup a lot of emphasis as the Cyclones try to enhance their program's brand. Their 37-31 double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State in mid-November ultimately kept the Cowboys out of the BCS title game. Quite simply, Iowa State is the better team and getting points. Take the points and the Cyclones."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
When:</B> Dec. 30, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: Miss St. minus-6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "All things being equal, if this was an early-season nonconference game, I would likely take a longer look at a favored Mississippi State squad. And, while Mississippi State is clearly the better team and plays in inarguably the nation's toughest conference, this game probably does not carry the significance of a typical SEC game in October. Take the more focused Demon Deacons and seven points if you can still find it."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Insight Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oklahoma Sooners
When:</B> Dec. 30, 10 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma minus-14
Over/Under: 57.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Stone says: "Some have criticized Bob Stoops' performance in bowl games [4-8 ATS since assuming control of the program in 1999], but the Sooners' primary goal each season is quite simple -- play for the national championship.
"Like many other top-shelf programs, if the Sooners slip past the BCS bowls and into the next tier of nonmarquee games, sometimes their collective focus is well below 100 percent.
"The flow of the 2011 season would certainly seem to fit the mold of an unfocused Oklahoma team as the Sooners, who were No. 1 in the nation in mid-October, fell several rungs down the ladder to the Insight Bowl after losses to Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Possessing a host of motivational and technical edges in its corner, I recommend taking Iowa plus-14."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats
When:</B> Dec. 31, noon ET
Line: Texas A&M minus-10
Over/Under: 67
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Leonard says: "The Aggies do have the advantage of playing so close to home, but they have had to deal with several tough distractions recently. Also, laying 10 points in a bowl game before Jan. 1 is always something you have to be concerned about.
"And look at the Big 12 overall: It has been bad against the spread in bowls over the past five years -- 13-26. It's a high offense conference, and, when you have extra time to prepare, you are able to neutralize some of that. Northwestern has performed better in the bowls recently and has covered the past three years. They are a good underdog, so, at 10 points, there is value there."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Utah Utes
When:</B> Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia Tech minus-2.5
Over/Under: 51
Pick Center analysis
Leonard says: "I like the points with Utah against Georgia Tech. One advantage you have against an option type of offense is you that you usually only struggle against it when you don't have time to prepare for it. Georgia Tech, the past few years in bowls, has lost all three outright as favorites and that makes sense.
"Utah has played Air Force in the past, so they know this kind of offense, and defensively they have given up few points. Since the team has time to prepare and has seen the offense, I took the points and Utah."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UCLA Bruins
When:</B> Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Illinois minus-3
Over/Under: 47
Watch | Pick Center analysis
VR says: "The Bruins are facing too many off-field issues and couldn't compete versus Oregon in the head coach's final game, so there is no reason to expect that they'll show up vs. the Illini. UCLA's defense allows 192 yards per game on the ground and 5.7 yards per carry, which should allow Illinois to have plenty of success and help it set up an efficient passing game."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
When:</B> Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Vanderbilt minus-1.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Covers says: "Initially I was disappointed in this matchup, it's 'bet on' vs. 'bet on,' two teams I wanted to support. I thought the spread would go up, and it hasn't. It's a virtual home game for Vandy, and I have a lot of respect for this team. Defensively, it played phenomenal football all year long, and it got a lot better as the season progressed.
"Cincy is good, but it struggles to step up in class. You don't take the home-field advantage lightly; look at Louisiana Tech, for example. I think Vandy wins and covers."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers
When:</B> Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn minus-3
Over/Under: 48.5
Watch | Pick Center analysis
Covers says: "I am little surprised Auburn has taken as much money as it has. You can catch Virginia plus-3. Since the start of hiring season, Auburn has lost its offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, and both guys took paycuts to leave. The other issue is they had this great inside-outside combination at running back, but leading rusher Michael Dyer is not going to play. He is a big loss.
"Virginia was an overachiever all year long. And their coach is staying put, so that is good. They have a better D, and I like seeing that for a team catching points. This is a live 'dog in my opinion."
