NFL Week 17 line moves
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
I'm on vacation this week (most readers of the column might say I am on vacation every week, bada bum).
I've got lots of family and friends in Northern California, so my wife and kids and I have been camped out at my sister's in the East Bay. Other than falling in love with the Golden State Warriors because my NBA-loving brother-in-law and I watched them beat the Bulls and the Knicks (I am buying an Ish Smith jersey before I leave), one of the highlights was spending the day with my childhood best friend, Matt, and his trash-talking 8-year-old, Jack.
Every year since we started going to Chicago Bears games because his parents had season tickets, Matt and I have competed in our version of pick 'em contests. With ESPN.com, we turned it into an all 16-game ATS war. Many years he has won. The past three years, I have won. As I have written in previous columns, the winner of this idiotic contest gets the privilege of spending as much money as possible on second-place trophies for the loser.
Pride and humiliation have no price. One season I sent Matt several trophies, each engraved with one word which, when lined up in the proper order, read, "2nd Place 2008 Pigskin Pick 'Em, *&^%$." Use your imagination to figure out what the last word read. I was very pleased when I walked into his house this week and saw that his wife kept the trophy with that particular word in the center of a shelf in their living room.
<OFFER>But, this season, after starting strong, I hit a rut. And I went from having a five-game pick 'em lead early in the year to trailing big, thanks to a midseason run that looked like this: four wins, eight wins, six wins, five wins, four wins. Needless to say, I stopped checking how far behind I had fallen after that. I was completely and blissfully unaware until this vacation, when Jack cornered me at California Pizza Kitchen in the Corte Madera Town Center and started taunting me. "Why are you so bad? Don't you edit a sports magazine? Don't you write about gambling? Why is my dad killing you?"
Naturally, I stole his pizza, told him he couldn't have ice cream and did my best to make him cry. After giving Matt the stink eye, I got back to my sister's and checked to see how many games I really was behind. It's four. Not great, but I expected it to be seven or eight. Four feels manageable. Combined with the fact that I went 5-0 in the Hilton Contest last week and am one more stellar week from potentially being in the money, I woke up the next morning feeling good about all of my long-term picking and gambling prospects.
The key, I told myself while still smiling about the Warriors' big win on Wednesday night, was not to get psyched out making my picks this week. I got back into it by winning 11, 9, 11 the past three weeks. Stick with what brought me, which basically has been the eyeball test. I have seen every team play more than enough downs to know if they stink or if they don't. Will they show up in a step up in competition or will they fold? Are they playing to save their coach or to end the season without a serious injury? I am ignoring stats, trends and overthinking. I am just going with my gut.
When I had Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports on the podcast a couple of weeks ago, he talked about how there might be some value in the Bucs against the Panthers in Week 16. He didn't say he would bet them, just that there was value. I chided him by saying: "This team is what you see. The only thing I will do is bet against them."
Who knows if I am right. Who knows if I can come back or win some money in the Hilton. Or, am I destined to have a house filled with second-place trophies this year?
Week 17 is particularly hard to make picks because so many teams with superior talent have nothing left for which to play. To help make sense of it all I asked Dave Tuley of the ViewFromVegas.com, who did a great job covering the SuperContest for the blog this year, to break down some of the toughest games on the board:
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers opened at minus-3, currently plus-3.5.
Tuley says: "Obviously it is based on the Packers' not having anything to play for. This moved quickly on Sunday after the Packers beat the Bears. In Week 17, we have these strange lines because of playoff positioning and who the players will be on this field. I tend to try and avoid these games because you have the unknown. The Lions want this for the top wild-card seed, but they might not want to jeopardize their chances in the playoffs either for just one spot. I don't like to lay points on this, especially over the key number of three."
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Line moves: Broncos opened at minus-3.5, currently plus-3.
Tuley says: "I have heard sharps on both sides of this game. The big media push has been on the Kyle Orton revenge factor and keeping the Broncos out of the playoffs. But others say Denver needs this more and should get the cover. So it's pretty split. I side with the Broncos at the 3. I don't buy the Orton revenge factor. The Chiefs obviously put themselves in the position where this game could have mattered to them, so that is why I wouldn't lay the 3.5 when it was out there."
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently at minus-1.
Tuley says: "This is another case where the wild card is in play and people are going to think the Bengals need it more, which is why it moved. Otherwise it would be well over a field goal, even with the Ravens on the road. But in Week 17 I tend to play more favorites than at any time of the year, and I think the Ravens will end up putting together a big effort to get that first-round bye."
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line moves: Jags opened at minus-5, currently minus-3.5.
Tuley says: "The sharps took the Colts because they are playing well. The squares have been on the Jags' side, thinking the Colts will lose this game to get [Stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck. But they haven't been playing that way for the past few weeks. The problem with the people who are backing the Jags is they don't have any incentive right now either. This game is a guess; I am staying away from it."
Matchup Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Line moves: Titans opened at minus-1.5, currently at minus-3
Tuley says: "The Texans are locked into their playoff spot here and obviously this is a wiseguy move. The Titans do have more to play for and this is a case where I think the conventional wisdom is that the public and the sharps will end up being on this side. In a way I am surprised the oddsmakers didn't adjust the line even more. They should have gone on the assumption that the Texans won't play any of their starters and put the game at minus-7."
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
I'm on vacation this week (most readers of the column might say I am on vacation every week, bada bum).
I've got lots of family and friends in Northern California, so my wife and kids and I have been camped out at my sister's in the East Bay. Other than falling in love with the Golden State Warriors because my NBA-loving brother-in-law and I watched them beat the Bulls and the Knicks (I am buying an Ish Smith jersey before I leave), one of the highlights was spending the day with my childhood best friend, Matt, and his trash-talking 8-year-old, Jack.
Every year since we started going to Chicago Bears games because his parents had season tickets, Matt and I have competed in our version of pick 'em contests. With ESPN.com, we turned it into an all 16-game ATS war. Many years he has won. The past three years, I have won. As I have written in previous columns, the winner of this idiotic contest gets the privilege of spending as much money as possible on second-place trophies for the loser.
Pride and humiliation have no price. One season I sent Matt several trophies, each engraved with one word which, when lined up in the proper order, read, "2nd Place 2008 Pigskin Pick 'Em, *&^%$." Use your imagination to figure out what the last word read. I was very pleased when I walked into his house this week and saw that his wife kept the trophy with that particular word in the center of a shelf in their living room.
<OFFER>But, this season, after starting strong, I hit a rut. And I went from having a five-game pick 'em lead early in the year to trailing big, thanks to a midseason run that looked like this: four wins, eight wins, six wins, five wins, four wins. Needless to say, I stopped checking how far behind I had fallen after that. I was completely and blissfully unaware until this vacation, when Jack cornered me at California Pizza Kitchen in the Corte Madera Town Center and started taunting me. "Why are you so bad? Don't you edit a sports magazine? Don't you write about gambling? Why is my dad killing you?"
Naturally, I stole his pizza, told him he couldn't have ice cream and did my best to make him cry. After giving Matt the stink eye, I got back to my sister's and checked to see how many games I really was behind. It's four. Not great, but I expected it to be seven or eight. Four feels manageable. Combined with the fact that I went 5-0 in the Hilton Contest last week and am one more stellar week from potentially being in the money, I woke up the next morning feeling good about all of my long-term picking and gambling prospects.
The key, I told myself while still smiling about the Warriors' big win on Wednesday night, was not to get psyched out making my picks this week. I got back into it by winning 11, 9, 11 the past three weeks. Stick with what brought me, which basically has been the eyeball test. I have seen every team play more than enough downs to know if they stink or if they don't. Will they show up in a step up in competition or will they fold? Are they playing to save their coach or to end the season without a serious injury? I am ignoring stats, trends and overthinking. I am just going with my gut.
When I had Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports on the podcast a couple of weeks ago, he talked about how there might be some value in the Bucs against the Panthers in Week 16. He didn't say he would bet them, just that there was value. I chided him by saying: "This team is what you see. The only thing I will do is bet against them."
Who knows if I am right. Who knows if I can come back or win some money in the Hilton. Or, am I destined to have a house filled with second-place trophies this year?
Week 17 is particularly hard to make picks because so many teams with superior talent have nothing left for which to play. To help make sense of it all I asked Dave Tuley of the ViewFromVegas.com, who did a great job covering the SuperContest for the blog this year, to break down some of the toughest games on the board:
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers opened at minus-3, currently plus-3.5.
Tuley says: "Obviously it is based on the Packers' not having anything to play for. This moved quickly on Sunday after the Packers beat the Bears. In Week 17, we have these strange lines because of playoff positioning and who the players will be on this field. I tend to try and avoid these games because you have the unknown. The Lions want this for the top wild-card seed, but they might not want to jeopardize their chances in the playoffs either for just one spot. I don't like to lay points on this, especially over the key number of three."
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Line moves: Broncos opened at minus-3.5, currently plus-3.
Tuley says: "I have heard sharps on both sides of this game. The big media push has been on the Kyle Orton revenge factor and keeping the Broncos out of the playoffs. But others say Denver needs this more and should get the cover. So it's pretty split. I side with the Broncos at the 3. I don't buy the Orton revenge factor. The Chiefs obviously put themselves in the position where this game could have mattered to them, so that is why I wouldn't lay the 3.5 when it was out there."
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-3, currently at minus-1.
Tuley says: "This is another case where the wild card is in play and people are going to think the Bengals need it more, which is why it moved. Otherwise it would be well over a field goal, even with the Ravens on the road. But in Week 17 I tend to play more favorites than at any time of the year, and I think the Ravens will end up putting together a big effort to get that first-round bye."
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line moves: Jags opened at minus-5, currently minus-3.5.
Tuley says: "The sharps took the Colts because they are playing well. The squares have been on the Jags' side, thinking the Colts will lose this game to get [Stanford quarterback] Andrew Luck. But they haven't been playing that way for the past few weeks. The problem with the people who are backing the Jags is they don't have any incentive right now either. This game is a guess; I am staying away from it."
Matchup Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Line moves: Titans opened at minus-1.5, currently at minus-3
Tuley says: "The Texans are locked into their playoff spot here and obviously this is a wiseguy move. The Titans do have more to play for and this is a case where I think the conventional wisdom is that the public and the sharps will end up being on this side. In a way I am surprised the oddsmakers didn't adjust the line even more. They should have gone on the assumption that the Texans won't play any of their starters and put the game at minus-7."
