Early NFL wild-card betting trends
By Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
They had it all the way. No problem.
Sans Souci, a group of four Las Vegas friends, turned a $1,500 entry in the prestigious Hilton SuperContest pro football handicapping competition into $320,200 by topping the largest-ever field of 517 entrants with a record 60.5 points. They went 58-22-5, hitting at a 71.2 percent clip and winning by 2½ points over Pagermager, who "settled" for the second-place prize of $124,080 after going 56-25-4 (68.2 percent).
Brady Kannon, 42, is the front man for the group as his name on the entry form. He owns BK's Golf Services (lvteetimes.com), a tee-time reservation company. Robert Oseland, 45, is a former casino executive at Wynn Resorts who left his post early in 2011. ("That gave me more time to study," he says.) James Gallo, 42, is an attorney and Las Vegas native. Paul Caruso, 40, owns Express Bail Bonds and several other companies.
"We're a diverse group, so we all have a different point of view and way of handicapping, so we didn't have all favorites or all underdogs but a nice mix every week," Kannon said. The foursome each made a pick a week with one person charged with making two. "Paul was our leadoff man as 'the deuce,' and he also had the two plays in Week 17. I was the No. 2 hitter, James was in the three-hole, and Rob was the cleanup hitter."
They came out swinging at the start of the season and opened up a 1½ -point lead by Week 6 with a record of 23-5-2 (80 percent) when they were featured in an ESPN Insider piece. In that article, Kannon explained that they took their team name, which is a French phrase meaning "without worry," from a story that musician Peter Rowan told about a sign at Jerry Garcia's house.
After they gave up the lead when Pagermager went on an incredible 22-2-1 ATS run during the middle of the season, Kannon emailed me to say: "You didn't jinx us. We are still going to win the whole thing -- no problem."
<OFFER>But it wasn't that easy. They fell behind by as many as four points and continued to trail Pagermager until Week 15, when they went 4-1 and Pagermager went 1-4.
Sans Souci held a one-point lead heading into Sunday's Week 17, but they didn't hedge like Richard Stand did last year. They went with the Texans, Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Giants in Week 17. In the early games, they were cheering for the Texans plus-3 versus Titans and the Patriots minus-11 versus the Bills but also rooting against the plays of Pagermager, who had the Rams and Colts in the early games, and Texasex91 (the only other SuperContestant who was mathematically alive), who also had the Colts.
"Everybody was watching the games with playoff spots on the line, and we were watching the sh---iest game cheering for the Jaguars," Oseland said.
Gallo added that the game was hard to find, as the NFL Network didn't have it on its game mix. "The whole country cared about every other game, but that was one of the biggest games for us because we had a lot of money riding on it," he said. "I guess that's typical for us in Vegas."
Sans Souci had some worrisome moments as the Patriots fell behind 21-0 to the Bills and the Texans trailed the Titans for most of their game -- plus the Colts stayed within a score of covering the whole way, but they eventually lost 19-13 to eliminate Texasex91 from title contention. Meanwhile, the Patriots scored 49 unanswered points to beat the Bills 49-21 and the Texans found the back door as Jake Delhomme hit Bryant Johnson with a five-yard touchdown pass with 14 seconds remaining to lose but cover 23-22 (after a failed 2-point conversion attempt).
That clinched the title for Sans Souci, as their 2-0 mark and Pagermager's 1-1 gave them a two-point lead. Both had a common play with the Chiefs, so that meant Pagermager could make up only two games. However, Sans Souci held the tiebreaker of best record over the final three weeks of the season, so they were the champs and prepared to split the $310,200 first-place prize. The Hilton offers a $10,000 bonus for SuperContestants that hit better than 67 percent, so Sans Souci and Pagermager split that prize.
"We didn't expect to wrap it up so early in the day," Gallo said. "Paul was hoping it would come down to the Giants, so he could say he won it for us with one of his picks."
"I was on the Giants [minus-2.5] from the beginning when the lines came out because I thought it should have been closer to 5," said Caruso, who also contributed the Chiefs, another winner, as his second play. "Brady called me to say it was over, and I made a joke that I wanted it to come down to the Giants because I liked the game so much."
The Giants' game did mean something. The Hilton has a $10,000 mini-contest over the final three weeks of the season. It's usually won by someone that's out of the money and trying to salvage a lost season, but Sans' Souci late run put them in the running. The Giants' 31-14 win gave them a 12-2-1 mark in the mini-contest and tied them with The Icepick to pocket another $5,000, bringing the champs' total haul to $320,200. That's still more than Richard Stand won last year with his $207,000 prize plus hedges, which brought his take-home pay to almost $300,000.
People who read the Week 6 article saw that there was a fifth member of Sans Souci the past two years who dropped out before this season. Followers of the contest on Twitter and in my forums at ViewFromVegas.com have wondered about the mental state of the Fifth Souci after missing out on the group's subsequent success.
"He's doing fine," Kannon said before identifying their former member as Bill Berghoff of Chicago. "You know the famous Berghoff Restaurant in Chicago? That's his family. He sent his congrats but said to expect a call from his lawyer."
Where is the money going for wild-card weekend?
The SuperContest is over, but we can still take a look at the early line moves for the upcoming NFL wild-card weekend. The first three matchups that were determined (Bengals-Texans, Lions-Saints and Steelers-Broncos) had sides and totals posted once the NFL announced when the games would be played so the betting numbers could be assigned. Once the Giants put away the Cowboys to win the NFC East, the Falcons-Giants game was posted later Sunday night.
Cincinnati Bengals-Houston Texans
The Hilton opened with the Texans minus-3, and early wiseguy money came in on the Bengals, with the Wynn Las Vegas opting for a line of minus-2.5 Monday morning. After it was announced that T.J. Yates is expected to be clear to play for the Texans, the line is back to a more solid minus-3. I rarely play favorites, but I think the value here is on the Texans, especially with the way the Bengals backed into the playoffs. The Texans were actually more impressive in their loss, with several starters sitting out or going to the bench early. Sharp bettors are expecting a defensive battle, betting down the over/under from an opening of 38.5 points to 38.
Detroit Lions-New Orleans Saints
The Hilton opened the Saints with a high number of minus-10, while offshores went with minus-9.5. But it wasn't surprising to see the Saints get the early money, as they covered their final eight games of the season. They finished with a league-best 12-4 record against the spread, including 8-0 in the Superdome. The over/under opened with an NFL-record playoff total of 58 and has been bet up further to 59 at the Hilton as of Tuesday morning and 59.5 at the MGM and Caesars books on the Strip. My feeling is you have to fade the high number and take the under -- counting on a defense making a stop or two, hopefully -- but not until it peaks. I tweeted Sunday that I felt the books need to put the total at 60 if they wanted to attract under money, and it looks as if that's where we're headed.
Atlanta Falcons-New York Giants
The Giants opened at minus-3, and this is the most solid number on the board. The over/under opened 48.5 at the Hilton and has been bet steadily down to 47.5, and even 47 at some books. Both teams have been inconsistent, but I give a slight edge to the Falcons, who have won three of their past four with the only setback being to the Saints.
Pittsburgh Steelers-Denver Broncos
The Hilton opened the Steelers minus-7.5 while offshore went with minus-8. We've seen it go to -8 everywhere, with the MGM books going to -8.5. (Some books are at minus-9 trying to deter six-point teasers going under a field goal). I'll be on the Broncos plus the points. People keep saying the Steelers will shut down Tim Tebow and romp, but they never have an answer when I point out that the Steelers failed to cover twice against the Browns and also on the road at Kansas City in a 13-9 win. The Broncos defense is just as good as either of those teams, so they have a great chance to cover this big number -- and don't forget how many people didn't give the Seahawks a chance as 10-point home 'dogs against the Saints last year. The books set this with the lowest total of the week at 35 points, and the wiseguys have bet it down to 34.5.
Former champs and other familiar names
No one in the group we've been tracking all season was able to get in the money. Jarhead, the 2006 Hilton champ, came the closest, as he went 4-1 in Week 17 to finish 49-33-3 for 50.5 points to miss by just a half-point. Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the name Simbotics, was trying to cash for the second time in two tries, but he went 1-3-1, as did ESPN The Magazine editor in chief Chad Millman. They finished with respectable totals of 48.5 and 47, respectively. Bruno's Boys, the 2001 winner, and defending champ Richard Stand came in at 46.5 and 45 points, respectively. Two-time champ Fezzik went 3-1-1 to get back to .500 at 40-40-5 after struggling all year.
By Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
They had it all the way. No problem.
Sans Souci, a group of four Las Vegas friends, turned a $1,500 entry in the prestigious Hilton SuperContest pro football handicapping competition into $320,200 by topping the largest-ever field of 517 entrants with a record 60.5 points. They went 58-22-5, hitting at a 71.2 percent clip and winning by 2½ points over Pagermager, who "settled" for the second-place prize of $124,080 after going 56-25-4 (68.2 percent).
Brady Kannon, 42, is the front man for the group as his name on the entry form. He owns BK's Golf Services (lvteetimes.com), a tee-time reservation company. Robert Oseland, 45, is a former casino executive at Wynn Resorts who left his post early in 2011. ("That gave me more time to study," he says.) James Gallo, 42, is an attorney and Las Vegas native. Paul Caruso, 40, owns Express Bail Bonds and several other companies.
"We're a diverse group, so we all have a different point of view and way of handicapping, so we didn't have all favorites or all underdogs but a nice mix every week," Kannon said. The foursome each made a pick a week with one person charged with making two. "Paul was our leadoff man as 'the deuce,' and he also had the two plays in Week 17. I was the No. 2 hitter, James was in the three-hole, and Rob was the cleanup hitter."
They came out swinging at the start of the season and opened up a 1½ -point lead by Week 6 with a record of 23-5-2 (80 percent) when they were featured in an ESPN Insider piece. In that article, Kannon explained that they took their team name, which is a French phrase meaning "without worry," from a story that musician Peter Rowan told about a sign at Jerry Garcia's house.
After they gave up the lead when Pagermager went on an incredible 22-2-1 ATS run during the middle of the season, Kannon emailed me to say: "You didn't jinx us. We are still going to win the whole thing -- no problem."
<OFFER>But it wasn't that easy. They fell behind by as many as four points and continued to trail Pagermager until Week 15, when they went 4-1 and Pagermager went 1-4.
Sans Souci held a one-point lead heading into Sunday's Week 17, but they didn't hedge like Richard Stand did last year. They went with the Texans, Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Giants in Week 17. In the early games, they were cheering for the Texans plus-3 versus Titans and the Patriots minus-11 versus the Bills but also rooting against the plays of Pagermager, who had the Rams and Colts in the early games, and Texasex91 (the only other SuperContestant who was mathematically alive), who also had the Colts.
"Everybody was watching the games with playoff spots on the line, and we were watching the sh---iest game cheering for the Jaguars," Oseland said.
Gallo added that the game was hard to find, as the NFL Network didn't have it on its game mix. "The whole country cared about every other game, but that was one of the biggest games for us because we had a lot of money riding on it," he said. "I guess that's typical for us in Vegas."
Sans Souci had some worrisome moments as the Patriots fell behind 21-0 to the Bills and the Texans trailed the Titans for most of their game -- plus the Colts stayed within a score of covering the whole way, but they eventually lost 19-13 to eliminate Texasex91 from title contention. Meanwhile, the Patriots scored 49 unanswered points to beat the Bills 49-21 and the Texans found the back door as Jake Delhomme hit Bryant Johnson with a five-yard touchdown pass with 14 seconds remaining to lose but cover 23-22 (after a failed 2-point conversion attempt).
That clinched the title for Sans Souci, as their 2-0 mark and Pagermager's 1-1 gave them a two-point lead. Both had a common play with the Chiefs, so that meant Pagermager could make up only two games. However, Sans Souci held the tiebreaker of best record over the final three weeks of the season, so they were the champs and prepared to split the $310,200 first-place prize. The Hilton offers a $10,000 bonus for SuperContestants that hit better than 67 percent, so Sans Souci and Pagermager split that prize.
"We didn't expect to wrap it up so early in the day," Gallo said. "Paul was hoping it would come down to the Giants, so he could say he won it for us with one of his picks."
"I was on the Giants [minus-2.5] from the beginning when the lines came out because I thought it should have been closer to 5," said Caruso, who also contributed the Chiefs, another winner, as his second play. "Brady called me to say it was over, and I made a joke that I wanted it to come down to the Giants because I liked the game so much."
The Giants' game did mean something. The Hilton has a $10,000 mini-contest over the final three weeks of the season. It's usually won by someone that's out of the money and trying to salvage a lost season, but Sans' Souci late run put them in the running. The Giants' 31-14 win gave them a 12-2-1 mark in the mini-contest and tied them with The Icepick to pocket another $5,000, bringing the champs' total haul to $320,200. That's still more than Richard Stand won last year with his $207,000 prize plus hedges, which brought his take-home pay to almost $300,000.
People who read the Week 6 article saw that there was a fifth member of Sans Souci the past two years who dropped out before this season. Followers of the contest on Twitter and in my forums at ViewFromVegas.com have wondered about the mental state of the Fifth Souci after missing out on the group's subsequent success.
"He's doing fine," Kannon said before identifying their former member as Bill Berghoff of Chicago. "You know the famous Berghoff Restaurant in Chicago? That's his family. He sent his congrats but said to expect a call from his lawyer."
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%" target="new">
Where is the money going for wild-card weekend?
The SuperContest is over, but we can still take a look at the early line moves for the upcoming NFL wild-card weekend. The first three matchups that were determined (Bengals-Texans, Lions-Saints and Steelers-Broncos) had sides and totals posted once the NFL announced when the games would be played so the betting numbers could be assigned. Once the Giants put away the Cowboys to win the NFC East, the Falcons-Giants game was posted later Sunday night.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Cincinnati Bengals-Houston Texans
The Hilton opened with the Texans minus-3, and early wiseguy money came in on the Bengals, with the Wynn Las Vegas opting for a line of minus-2.5 Monday morning. After it was announced that T.J. Yates is expected to be clear to play for the Texans, the line is back to a more solid minus-3. I rarely play favorites, but I think the value here is on the Texans, especially with the way the Bengals backed into the playoffs. The Texans were actually more impressive in their loss, with several starters sitting out or going to the bench early. Sharp bettors are expecting a defensive battle, betting down the over/under from an opening of 38.5 points to 38.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Detroit Lions-New Orleans Saints
The Hilton opened the Saints with a high number of minus-10, while offshores went with minus-9.5. But it wasn't surprising to see the Saints get the early money, as they covered their final eight games of the season. They finished with a league-best 12-4 record against the spread, including 8-0 in the Superdome. The over/under opened with an NFL-record playoff total of 58 and has been bet up further to 59 at the Hilton as of Tuesday morning and 59.5 at the MGM and Caesars books on the Strip. My feeling is you have to fade the high number and take the under -- counting on a defense making a stop or two, hopefully -- but not until it peaks. I tweeted Sunday that I felt the books need to put the total at 60 if they wanted to attract under money, and it looks as if that's where we're headed.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Atlanta Falcons-New York Giants
The Giants opened at minus-3, and this is the most solid number on the board. The over/under opened 48.5 at the Hilton and has been bet steadily down to 47.5, and even 47 at some books. Both teams have been inconsistent, but I give a slight edge to the Falcons, who have won three of their past four with the only setback being to the Saints.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Pittsburgh Steelers-Denver Broncos
The Hilton opened the Steelers minus-7.5 while offshore went with minus-8. We've seen it go to -8 everywhere, with the MGM books going to -8.5. (Some books are at minus-9 trying to deter six-point teasers going under a field goal). I'll be on the Broncos plus the points. People keep saying the Steelers will shut down Tim Tebow and romp, but they never have an answer when I point out that the Steelers failed to cover twice against the Browns and also on the road at Kansas City in a 13-9 win. The Broncos defense is just as good as either of those teams, so they have a great chance to cover this big number -- and don't forget how many people didn't give the Seahawks a chance as 10-point home 'dogs against the Saints last year. The books set this with the lowest total of the week at 35 points, and the wiseguys have bet it down to 34.5.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Former champs and other familiar names
No one in the group we've been tracking all season was able to get in the money. Jarhead, the 2006 Hilton champ, came the closest, as he went 4-1 in Week 17 to finish 49-33-3 for 50.5 points to miss by just a half-point. Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the name Simbotics, was trying to cash for the second time in two tries, but he went 1-3-1, as did ESPN The Magazine editor in chief Chad Millman. They finished with respectable totals of 48.5 and 47, respectively. Bruno's Boys, the 2001 winner, and defending champ Richard Stand came in at 46.5 and 45 points, respectively. Two-time champ Fezzik went 3-1-1 to get back to .500 at 40-40-5 after struggling all year.
