Elite QBs offer best value with early picks
As we close the book on the 2011 fantasy football season, let's remember the lessons we learned so we set ourselves up for success in 2012 (season fantasy point totals do not include Week 17).
Quarterbacks are king
Many of us make the same mistake year after year. We grab running backs in the first two rounds because we're so scared of the supposed limited supply. But in doing so, we ignore the fact that quarterbacks are our greatest point producers and offer the safest return on our investment.
So why did McCoy have an average draft position (ADP) of eighth while Brady had an ADP of 20th? Brees, who shattered the single-season passing yardage record, typically wasn't selected until the 31st pick — after disappointments such as Rashard Mendenhall (ninth), DeSean Jackson (24th), Peyton Hillis (25th) and Reggie Wayne (30th).
The argument that taking an elite back gives you an advantage because of "relative dominance" is outdated.
Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, the player most often taken No. 1, finished third at his position in overall points because he missed a couple of games. His average of 19.01 points in games played, however, was the best, slightly better than McCoy's 18.63.
For Foster to provide a 10-point advantage in your lineup, you would have to go all the way down the list to Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers, who finished with an 8.85 average — 31st among running backs.
But only Brees, Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford were within 10 points of Rodgers' best 35.19 average.
Those popular "value picks" owners thought they were getting in the mid-rounds when selecting Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Freeman didn't come within 12 points of Brady's third-best 29.85 average.
Since the goal is to generate the most points for your team, it just doesn't make mathematical sense to focus on positions that don't provide you the greatest differential between elite and the merely good.
And consider where the top quarterbacks finished in fantasy points over the last four seasons starting in 2008.
•Rodgers was third, first, second and first.
•Brees was first, second, ninth and second.
•Brady was injured in 2008, but eighth in '09 and third in each of the past two seasons.
That consistency is why picking one of them in the first round is the soundest investment strategy for building your team.
And with the arrival of Newton, who should only improve with time and a better supporting cast, I'd argue the first four picks of 2012 should be quarterbacks.
Go with the system at running back
As a fan, it's hard not to love McCoy, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. Rice (second) and Jones-Drew (fourth) joined Foster and McCoy at the top of the list for fantasy points by running backs. All four have a solid history for staying healthy. Foster is the one most known for keeping his owners on edge with nagging injuries. But it's players who are in situations like his that owners should focus on on draft day.
Teams that have rushing attacks with a history of success can make life a lot easier for owners when it comes to dealing with injuries. Even though it requires committing draft picks to backups while your fellow owners are drafting players with starting gigs, the reward is well worth it.
The trick is focusing on teams with proven success and players with similar skill sets. The Texans are going to run well with Foster or Ben Tate. Once the Detroit Lions picked up shifty veteran Kevin Smith, he was a fantasy force similar to injured Jahvid Best.
Even though he is 20 pounds lighter than veteran teammate Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller proved he could handle the load of a feature back. He was fifth in fantasy points at the position in December.
And no one will confuse Minnesota Vikings backup Toby Gerhart with superstar Adrian Peterson, but hard-charging Gerhart showed he can get it done between the tackles, producing more than 14 points a game during the stretch run with Peterson out.
The problem (if you could call it a problem) with owning a unique player such as McCoy or Jones-Drew is that the drop-off between them and their backups is so significant, you'll have to look to another team for a replacement, which will be costlier than drafting a backup from a running powerhouse.
Receivers can answer call late
I'd have a hard time criticizing anyone for taking Calvin Johnson early in the draft. The Lions' stud was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and — let's face it — provides a cool factor that can't be ignored. (Remember, fantasy is supposed to be a fun, social affair.)
But after Johnson and maybe Larry Fitzgerald, there really are no wide receivers who demand being taken early.
Point-per-reception league owners can make an argument for Wes Welker, but most of us play in standard leagues, and Welker has never recorded double-digit touchdowns in a season.
There's a greater turnover each season with the leaders at wide receiver than at any other position. And finding difference makers off the waiver wire and late in drafts is far easier, too.
Last season, Brandon Lloyd was the best fantasy wideout despite being a waiver pickup in nearly every league. This season, Green Bay Packers No. 2 receiver Jordy Nelson had an ADP of 117 as the 45th wideout off the board, but he finished second in fantasy points.
The New York Giants' Victor Cruz was another waiver-wire wonder, coming in as the fourth-best receiver in fantasy. Nelson and Cruz also shine a light on the fact that you don't even need to be your team's best receiver to have the biggest fantasy impact.
While starting quarterbacks and running backs often are opposing defenses' first priority, Nos. 2 and 3 receivers get the luxury of fewer and less-talented defenders covering them. While Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys get big contracts and Pro Bowl consideration, journeyman Laurent Robinson was the player from the team's receiving corps to average 10 fantasy points over the last five weeks of the season.
So when prepping for your 2012 draft, put receivers under quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends on your shopping list.
As we close the book on the 2011 fantasy football season, let's remember the lessons we learned so we set ourselves up for success in 2012 (season fantasy point totals do not include Week 17).
Quarterbacks are king
Many of us make the same mistake year after year. We grab running backs in the first two rounds because we're so scared of the supposed limited supply. But in doing so, we ignore the fact that quarterbacks are our greatest point producers and offer the safest return on our investment.
- MORE: Fantasy playoff rankings
So why did McCoy have an average draft position (ADP) of eighth while Brady had an ADP of 20th? Brees, who shattered the single-season passing yardage record, typically wasn't selected until the 31st pick — after disappointments such as Rashard Mendenhall (ninth), DeSean Jackson (24th), Peyton Hillis (25th) and Reggie Wayne (30th).
The argument that taking an elite back gives you an advantage because of "relative dominance" is outdated.
Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, the player most often taken No. 1, finished third at his position in overall points because he missed a couple of games. His average of 19.01 points in games played, however, was the best, slightly better than McCoy's 18.63.
For Foster to provide a 10-point advantage in your lineup, you would have to go all the way down the list to Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers, who finished with an 8.85 average — 31st among running backs.
But only Brees, Brady, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford were within 10 points of Rodgers' best 35.19 average.
Those popular "value picks" owners thought they were getting in the mid-rounds when selecting Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Freeman didn't come within 12 points of Brady's third-best 29.85 average.
Since the goal is to generate the most points for your team, it just doesn't make mathematical sense to focus on positions that don't provide you the greatest differential between elite and the merely good.
And consider where the top quarterbacks finished in fantasy points over the last four seasons starting in 2008.
•Rodgers was third, first, second and first.
•Brees was first, second, ninth and second.
•Brady was injured in 2008, but eighth in '09 and third in each of the past two seasons.
That consistency is why picking one of them in the first round is the soundest investment strategy for building your team.
And with the arrival of Newton, who should only improve with time and a better supporting cast, I'd argue the first four picks of 2012 should be quarterbacks.
Go with the system at running back
As a fan, it's hard not to love McCoy, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. Rice (second) and Jones-Drew (fourth) joined Foster and McCoy at the top of the list for fantasy points by running backs. All four have a solid history for staying healthy. Foster is the one most known for keeping his owners on edge with nagging injuries. But it's players who are in situations like his that owners should focus on on draft day.
Teams that have rushing attacks with a history of success can make life a lot easier for owners when it comes to dealing with injuries. Even though it requires committing draft picks to backups while your fellow owners are drafting players with starting gigs, the reward is well worth it.
The trick is focusing on teams with proven success and players with similar skill sets. The Texans are going to run well with Foster or Ben Tate. Once the Detroit Lions picked up shifty veteran Kevin Smith, he was a fantasy force similar to injured Jahvid Best.
Even though he is 20 pounds lighter than veteran teammate Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller proved he could handle the load of a feature back. He was fifth in fantasy points at the position in December.
And no one will confuse Minnesota Vikings backup Toby Gerhart with superstar Adrian Peterson, but hard-charging Gerhart showed he can get it done between the tackles, producing more than 14 points a game during the stretch run with Peterson out.
The problem (if you could call it a problem) with owning a unique player such as McCoy or Jones-Drew is that the drop-off between them and their backups is so significant, you'll have to look to another team for a replacement, which will be costlier than drafting a backup from a running powerhouse.
Receivers can answer call late
I'd have a hard time criticizing anyone for taking Calvin Johnson early in the draft. The Lions' stud was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and — let's face it — provides a cool factor that can't be ignored. (Remember, fantasy is supposed to be a fun, social affair.)
But after Johnson and maybe Larry Fitzgerald, there really are no wide receivers who demand being taken early.
Point-per-reception league owners can make an argument for Wes Welker, but most of us play in standard leagues, and Welker has never recorded double-digit touchdowns in a season.
There's a greater turnover each season with the leaders at wide receiver than at any other position. And finding difference makers off the waiver wire and late in drafts is far easier, too.
Last season, Brandon Lloyd was the best fantasy wideout despite being a waiver pickup in nearly every league. This season, Green Bay Packers No. 2 receiver Jordy Nelson had an ADP of 117 as the 45th wideout off the board, but he finished second in fantasy points.
The New York Giants' Victor Cruz was another waiver-wire wonder, coming in as the fourth-best receiver in fantasy. Nelson and Cruz also shine a light on the fact that you don't even need to be your team's best receiver to have the biggest fantasy impact.
While starting quarterbacks and running backs often are opposing defenses' first priority, Nos. 2 and 3 receivers get the luxury of fewer and less-talented defenders covering them. While Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys get big contracts and Pro Bowl consideration, journeyman Laurent Robinson was the player from the team's receiving corps to average 10 fantasy points over the last five weeks of the season.
So when prepping for your 2012 draft, put receivers under quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends on your shopping list.
