Divisional Vegas NFL Power Rankings

Divisional Vegas NFL Power Rankings

By RJ Bell/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider

Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports-betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:


TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.


Here are the divisional round Vegas NFL Rankings:
<offer><!-- begin inline 1 -->Pregame.com's Divisional Round Vegas NFL Rankings

<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Home-Field</th><th>True Power</th><th>Bettor Bias</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last yellow"><td>1</td><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>4</td><td>100</td><td>1</td><td>101</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>2</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>4</td><td>99</td><td>1.5</td><td>100.5</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>3</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>3.5</td><td>98</td><td>1</td><td>99</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>2.5</td><td>95</td><td>0.5</td><td>95.5</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>t-5</td><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>3</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>t-5</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>3</td><td>95</td><td>0</td><td>95</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>7</td><td>New York Giants</td><td>3</td><td>93.5</td><td>1</td><td>94.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>2.5</td><td>93.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>94</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>9</td><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>3</td><td>91.5</td><td>0</td><td>91.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-10</td><td>New York Jets</td><td>3</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-10</td><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>2.5</td><td>91</td><td>0</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>3</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-12</td><td>San Diego Chargers</td><td>2.5</td><td>90.5</td><td>0</td><td>90.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-14</td><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>2</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>t-14</td><td>Houston Texans</td><td>3</td><td>90</td><td>0</td><td>90</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-16</td><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>2.5</td><td>88</td><td>0</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last yellow"><td>t-16</td><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>2.5</td><td>88</td><td>0</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>3</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>3</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Oakland Raiders</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-18</td><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>2.5</td><td>87.5</td><td>0</td><td>87.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>3</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-22</td><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>2.5</td><td>87</td><td>0</td><td>87</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-24</td><td>Washington Redskins</td><td>3</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-24</td><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>2.5</td><td>85</td><td>0</td><td>85</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>26</td><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>3</td><td>84.5</td><td>0</td><td>84.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-27</td><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>2.5</td><td>84</td><td>0</td><td>84</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>28</td><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>3</td><td>84</td><td>-0.5</td><td>83.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>29</td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>0</td><td>82</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-30</td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>2</td><td>82</td><td>-0.5</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>t-30</td><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>2</td><td>81.5</td><td>0</td><td>81.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>32</td><td>St. Louis Rams</td><td>2</td><td>80</td><td>-0.5</td><td>79.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!--Color Styles--><style type="text/css">.yellow{background-color:#FFFF32;}.green{background-color:#66FF66;}.red{background-color:#FF0000;}.gold{background-color:#CC9900;}.orange{background-color:#FF6600;}</style><!-- end inline 1 -->


Playoff nuggets from Chris Andrews and RJ Bell



• I don't want to get too excited over the Texans. They beat a team limping into the playoffs with a rookie quarterback, just like they were. They have a strong running game and an excellent defense that will greatly help their young quarterback.


• The Lions showed drastic improvement from where they were a few years ago. Now they need one more good draft to cement themselves among the perennial contenders.


• The Saints are the "now" team. Ask anyone. The cynic in me still thinks they will have trouble winning in two difficult away stadiums.


• The Giants' running game appeared out of nowhere. They still have a multitude of flaws but are a veteran team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and head coach.


• The Steelers held Tom Brady to one of the worst games of his career earlier in the season. Now Tim Tebow slices them up. Go figure.


• This was the first since the 2000 season that home teams went 4-0 against the Vegas spread wild-card weekend.


• Patriots minus-13.5 this week is the biggest playoff favorite since the Patriots were 14.5-point favorites over Chargers in 2007.


• New Orleans is only the second road favorite in the divisional round of the playoffs since 1982. (Other: Cowboys minus-3.5 at Carolina in 1996.)




Projected Spreads



We projected the divisional-round spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below; it shows you where Vegas pros think the value exists.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Projected Divisional Round Playoff Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.
<table><thead><tr><th>Home</th><th>Road</th><th>Current</th><th>True Power</th><th>Point-Spread Power</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Saints</td><td>49ers</td><td>+3.5</td><td>+1</td><td>+2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Patriots</td><td>Broncos</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-13.5</td><td>-14.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ravens</td><td>Texans</td><td>-7.5</td><td>-8</td><td>-8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Packers</td><td>Giants</td><td>-9</td><td>-10.5</td><td>-10.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 2 -->



Voters:
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of sportsbook operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Korngay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant sportsbook director for the Cal Neva chain in Nevada.
Vegas Runner: Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN; columnist for Gaming Today.
</offer>