College Basketball Sweat Barometer
By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first 15 Vegas-posted games this season, the Georgetown Hoyas went 7-1 against the spread and covered by a margin of 5.8 points. Generally, that would make the Hoyas a good bet. On the flip side, through the Pittsburgh Panthers' first 15 posted games, they were minus-6.94. That's bad.
The against-the-spread (ATS) margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.
If you've been a reader of this blog for some time or a listener of Chad's Behind the Bets podcasts, you've heard a lot of discussion about "sharps" (professional handicappers) and "squares" (the rest of us suckers who donate to the sports books). Quick summary: Sharps look for value and walk away when the number isn't appealing.
Squares tend to gravitate to the favorite. A line moving half a point up isn't likely to alter a square's play.
<!-- end sidebar table --><!-- end inline 1 -->Knowing that squares tend to prefer favorites, I was surprised when compiling this week's chart to see that 20 of the 25 top Sweat Barometer teams have been favorites on average. This includes the top seven, led by No. 1 Sweat Barometer team Missouri Tigers, which has been a favorite in every game it has played with a spread this season.
But after talking to professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com, this isn't all that unusual.
"Once a team starts covering point spreads, they are obviously undervalued, and the ones with the greatest sweat numbers are going to be teams that need their point spreads inflated the most by the bookmakers," Selvaggio said. "So teams that were small dogs now become small faves, teams that were small faves on average become bigger faves."
So that begs the question: Do the worst Sweat Barometer teams in the country (look at the bottom of the chart for the SB bottom five) tend to be underdogs? So far, it's a resounding yes. Four of our bottom five have been consistent dogs.
Picking too many favorites can be a dangerous approach in the long run. But if you find the ones that haven't been properly valued, you'll find the teams that will give you the least sweat.
With that, let's turn to this week's chart:
<offer></offer>
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25
<table><thead><tr><th>Team (AP Ranking)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Missouri Tigers (9)</td><td>13-1-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>-12.15</td><td>7.35</td><td>30</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>South Dakota State Jackrabbits</td><td>13-5-0</td><td>7-2-1</td><td>-2.5</td><td>7</td><td>71</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgia State Panthers</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>-0.61</td><td>6.94</td><td>179</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seton Hall Pirates (24)</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>-1.25</td><td>6.33</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>La Salle Explorers</td><td>12-4-0</td><td>8-2-0</td><td>-1</td><td>6.1</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</td><td>15-2-0</td><td>10-3-1</td><td>-5.75</td><td>5.89</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cal Poly Mustangs</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>7-5-0</td><td>-0.42</td><td>5.83</td><td>137</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Texas Mean Green</td><td>9-8-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>3.45</td><td>5.65</td><td>216</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Dakota State Bison</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-0.86</td><td>5.59</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wyoming Cowboys</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-7.59</td><td>5.59</td><td>105</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas State Wildcats (18)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>-3.45</td><td>5.55</td><td>19</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UTEP Miners</td><td>8-8-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>4.04</td><td>5.46</td><td>141</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>LSU Tigers</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-1.77</td><td>5.41</td><td>69</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Murray State Racers (15)</td><td>16-0-0</td><td>7-3-1</td><td>-6.45</td><td>5.09</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Charlotte 49ers</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.06</td><td>74</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan State Spartans (6)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>10-3-0</td><td>-8.38</td><td>4.92</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nevada Wolf Pack</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>10-2-0</td><td>-0.71</td><td>4.79</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Akron Zips</td><td>9-6-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>3.14</td><td>4.77</td><td>108</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Saint Joseph's Hawks</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>10-3-0</td><td>-0.88</td><td>4.5</td><td>47</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa State Cyclones</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-4.68</td><td>4.23</td><td>44</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Delaware Fightin Blue Hens</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>3.28</td><td>4.17</td><td>239</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>California Golden Bears</td><td>13-4-0</td><td>10-4-0</td><td>-9.07</td><td>4.14</td><td>38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Creighton Bluejays (23)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-3.59</td><td>4.05</td><td>27</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan Wolverines (13)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>8-4-0</td><td>-5.67</td><td>3.92</td><td>26</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bulls</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>-2.23</td><td>3.77</td><td>92</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Remaining AP Top 25
<table><thead><tr><th>Team (ranking)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Hoosiers (7)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>7-2-1</td><td>-4.5</td><td>3.7</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes (5)</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-15.33</td><td>3.25</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Syracuse Orange (1)</td><td>17-0-0</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>-16.22</td><td>2.72</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgetown Hoyas (11)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>-4.64</td><td>2.55</td><td>18</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Gonzaga Bulldogs (21)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>-11.71</td><td>1.86</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UNLV Rebels (12)</td><td>15-2-0</td><td>6-7-0</td><td>-9</td><td>1.46</td><td>12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Cavaliers (16)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>-8.95</td><td>1.45</td><td>39</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas Jayhawks (10)</td><td>11-3-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-9.5</td><td>0.67</td><td>25</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Carolina Tar Heels (3)</td><td>10-2-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-16.71</td><td>0.54</td><td>13</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mississippi State Bulldogs (20)</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>-8.21</td><td>-0.14</td><td>55</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Diego State Aztecs (22)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>-5.95</td><td>-0.14</td><td>49</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke Blue Devils (8)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>5-9-0</td><td>-12.79</td><td>-2.07</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kentucky Wildcats (2)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>3-11-0</td><td>-20.11</td><td>-2.18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Louisville Cardinals (14)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>-11.96</td><td>-2.27</td><td>33</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Gators (19)</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-10.64</td><td>-2.27</td><td>52</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marquette Golden Eagles (25)</td><td>12-4-0</td><td>5-7-1</td><td>-9.12</td><td>-2.58</td><td>20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Connecticut Huskies (17)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>3-7-2</td><td>-8.96</td><td>-3.96</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 3 --><!-- begin inline 4 -->Bottom 5
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>IUPUI Jaguars</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>0.35</td><td>-5.65</td><td>229</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>William & Mary Tribe</td><td>3-13-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>10.59</td><td>-5.86</td><td>316</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UC Davis Aggies</td><td>1-14-0</td><td>3-10-1</td><td>8.04</td><td>-6.04</td><td>344</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Northern Illinois Huskies</td><td>1-12-0</td><td>4-6-0</td><td>12.1</td><td>-6.3</td><td>339</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Panthers</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>3-8-0</td><td>-9.05</td><td>-7.23</td><td>84</td></tr></tbody></table>
By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first 15 Vegas-posted games this season, the Georgetown Hoyas went 7-1 against the spread and covered by a margin of 5.8 points. Generally, that would make the Hoyas a good bet. On the flip side, through the Pittsburgh Panthers' first 15 posted games, they were minus-6.94. That's bad.
The against-the-spread (ATS) margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.
If you've been a reader of this blog for some time or a listener of Chad's Behind the Bets podcasts, you've heard a lot of discussion about "sharps" (professional handicappers) and "squares" (the rest of us suckers who donate to the sports books). Quick summary: Sharps look for value and walk away when the number isn't appealing.
Squares tend to gravitate to the favorite. A line moving half a point up isn't likely to alter a square's play.
<!-- end sidebar table --><!-- end inline 1 -->Knowing that squares tend to prefer favorites, I was surprised when compiling this week's chart to see that 20 of the 25 top Sweat Barometer teams have been favorites on average. This includes the top seven, led by No. 1 Sweat Barometer team Missouri Tigers, which has been a favorite in every game it has played with a spread this season.
But after talking to professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com, this isn't all that unusual.
"Once a team starts covering point spreads, they are obviously undervalued, and the ones with the greatest sweat numbers are going to be teams that need their point spreads inflated the most by the bookmakers," Selvaggio said. "So teams that were small dogs now become small faves, teams that were small faves on average become bigger faves."
So that begs the question: Do the worst Sweat Barometer teams in the country (look at the bottom of the chart for the SB bottom five) tend to be underdogs? So far, it's a resounding yes. Four of our bottom five have been consistent dogs.
Picking too many favorites can be a dangerous approach in the long run. But if you find the ones that haven't been properly valued, you'll find the teams that will give you the least sweat.
With that, let's turn to this week's chart:
<offer></offer>
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25
<table><thead><tr><th>Team (AP Ranking)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Missouri Tigers (9)</td><td>13-1-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>-12.15</td><td>7.35</td><td>30</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>South Dakota State Jackrabbits</td><td>13-5-0</td><td>7-2-1</td><td>-2.5</td><td>7</td><td>71</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgia State Panthers</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>-0.61</td><td>6.94</td><td>179</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seton Hall Pirates (24)</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>-1.25</td><td>6.33</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>La Salle Explorers</td><td>12-4-0</td><td>8-2-0</td><td>-1</td><td>6.1</td><td>91</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</td><td>15-2-0</td><td>10-3-1</td><td>-5.75</td><td>5.89</td><td>86</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cal Poly Mustangs</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>7-5-0</td><td>-0.42</td><td>5.83</td><td>137</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Texas Mean Green</td><td>9-8-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>3.45</td><td>5.65</td><td>216</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Dakota State Bison</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-0.86</td><td>5.59</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wyoming Cowboys</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-7.59</td><td>5.59</td><td>105</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas State Wildcats (18)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>-3.45</td><td>5.55</td><td>19</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UTEP Miners</td><td>8-8-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>4.04</td><td>5.46</td><td>141</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>LSU Tigers</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-1.77</td><td>5.41</td><td>69</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Murray State Racers (15)</td><td>16-0-0</td><td>7-3-1</td><td>-6.45</td><td>5.09</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Charlotte 49ers</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.06</td><td>74</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan State Spartans (6)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>10-3-0</td><td>-8.38</td><td>4.92</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nevada Wolf Pack</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>10-2-0</td><td>-0.71</td><td>4.79</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Akron Zips</td><td>9-6-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>3.14</td><td>4.77</td><td>108</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Saint Joseph's Hawks</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>10-3-0</td><td>-0.88</td><td>4.5</td><td>47</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa State Cyclones</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-4.68</td><td>4.23</td><td>44</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Delaware Fightin Blue Hens</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>3.28</td><td>4.17</td><td>239</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>California Golden Bears</td><td>13-4-0</td><td>10-4-0</td><td>-9.07</td><td>4.14</td><td>38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Creighton Bluejays (23)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>-3.59</td><td>4.05</td><td>27</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan Wolverines (13)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>8-4-0</td><td>-5.67</td><td>3.92</td><td>26</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bulls</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>-2.23</td><td>3.77</td><td>92</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Remaining AP Top 25
<table><thead><tr><th>Team (ranking)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Hoosiers (7)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>7-2-1</td><td>-4.5</td><td>3.7</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes (5)</td><td>14-2-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-15.33</td><td>3.25</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Syracuse Orange (1)</td><td>17-0-0</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>-16.22</td><td>2.72</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgetown Hoyas (11)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>-4.64</td><td>2.55</td><td>18</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Gonzaga Bulldogs (21)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>-11.71</td><td>1.86</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UNLV Rebels (12)</td><td>15-2-0</td><td>6-7-0</td><td>-9</td><td>1.46</td><td>12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Cavaliers (16)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>-8.95</td><td>1.45</td><td>39</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas Jayhawks (10)</td><td>11-3-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-9.5</td><td>0.67</td><td>25</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Carolina Tar Heels (3)</td><td>10-2-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>-16.71</td><td>0.54</td><td>13</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mississippi State Bulldogs (20)</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>-8.21</td><td>-0.14</td><td>55</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Diego State Aztecs (22)</td><td>13-2-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>-5.95</td><td>-0.14</td><td>49</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke Blue Devils (8)</td><td>12-2-0</td><td>5-9-0</td><td>-12.79</td><td>-2.07</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kentucky Wildcats (2)</td><td>14-1-0</td><td>3-11-0</td><td>-20.11</td><td>-2.18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Louisville Cardinals (14)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>-11.96</td><td>-2.27</td><td>33</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Gators (19)</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-10.64</td><td>-2.27</td><td>52</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marquette Golden Eagles (25)</td><td>12-4-0</td><td>5-7-1</td><td>-9.12</td><td>-2.58</td><td>20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Connecticut Huskies (17)</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>3-7-2</td><td>-8.96</td><td>-3.96</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 3 --><!-- begin inline 4 -->Bottom 5
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Avg. Line</th><th>Sweat Barometer</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>IUPUI Jaguars</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>0.35</td><td>-5.65</td><td>229</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>William & Mary Tribe</td><td>3-13-0</td><td>4-7-0</td><td>10.59</td><td>-5.86</td><td>316</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UC Davis Aggies</td><td>1-14-0</td><td>3-10-1</td><td>8.04</td><td>-6.04</td><td>344</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Northern Illinois Huskies</td><td>1-12-0</td><td>4-6-0</td><td>12.1</td><td>-6.3</td><td>339</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Panthers</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>3-8-0</td><td>-9.05</td><td>-7.23</td><td>84</td></tr></tbody></table>
