The Divisional Playoff Sweat Barometer
By Ben Fawkes/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
While all the matchups of the Divisional Round of the 2011 NFL playoffs are intriguing, from a gambling perspective one stands out: the New Orleans Saints visiting the San Francisco 49ers.
Though we touched on it in this space last week, the Saints and 49ers finished No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in the NFL Sweat Barometer this year (data provided by Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com).
The Saints have struggled on the road this season (4-4 ATS, SB of minus-2.13), with losses to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams, while the Niners have been absolutely dominant at home (7-0-1 ATS, SB of 11.06). The line opened at Saints minus-3.5 and has stayed there, with the total being bumped up from 47 to 47.5. And the public, as expected, is backing the Saints at a 71 percent clip.
The big question is whether San Francisco's defense can slow down Drew Brees and New Orleans' offense. The 49ers defense is ranked No. 3 in the NFL by Football Outsiders with a DVOA of minus-10.3 percent and first in the NFL against the run; it only ranks eighth against the pass.
However, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports thinks the numbers for San Francisco's pass defense are a bit misleading.
"The Niners played to a 13-3 record and often had teams put away," Kulesa says. "They allowed 104 of their 229 points in the fourth quarter! There were a lot of passing yards there, and despite that they allowed just 14.3 ppg."
One major issue for the 49ers, though, is that according to FO, they rank just 20th in the NFL at defending running backs catching passes out of the backfield, and Darren Sproles is one of the NFL's best at doing just that.
Although lower-seeded wild-card winners like the Saints, who won and covered at home are only 20-29-1 ATS against higher-seeded opponents per vegasinsider.com, Kulesa sees value with the total -- not the line.
<offer></offer>
"After last week's game versus Detroit, in which the game sailed way over the 59-point total, this looks like about an easy as an over play, right? Not so fast," he says. "The big offensive numbers in the Saints' current 9-0 run, and 9-0 ATS run, have come against eight teams that have defenses ranked 20th or worse. The Saints are averaging 41.6 ppg at home but just 27.3 ppg on the road, a full two-touchdown difference. This total looks enticingly low because of the Saints' offensive prowess in recent games, but now you know the rest of the story. Play the under."
Here is the NFL Divisional Playoff Sweat Barometer:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Divisional Round NFL Sweat Barometer
<table><thead><tr><th>Rk</th><th>Team</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>ATS/H</th><th>ATS/A</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>ATS Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>14-3-0</td><td>13-4-0</td><td>9-0-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-6.50</td><td>6.74</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>11-4-1</td><td>7-0-1</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-3.03</td><td>6.41</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Houston Texans </td><td>11-6-0</td><td>11-5-1</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-2.74</td><td>4.56</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>Green Bay Packers </td><td>15-1-0</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-8.44</td><td>4.13</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-7.69</td><td>3.00</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Baltimore Ravens </td><td>12-4-0</td><td>8-7-1</td><td>4-3-1</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-6.13</td><td>0.88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>New York Giants </td><td>10-7-0</td><td>9-7-1</td><td>4-4-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-0.15</td><td>0.79</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Denver Broncos </td><td>9-8-0</td><td>8-8-1</td><td>2-6-1</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>2.68</td><td>-1.74</td></tr></tbody></table>
By Ben Fawkes/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
While all the matchups of the Divisional Round of the 2011 NFL playoffs are intriguing, from a gambling perspective one stands out: the New Orleans Saints visiting the San Francisco 49ers.
Though we touched on it in this space last week, the Saints and 49ers finished No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in the NFL Sweat Barometer this year (data provided by Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com).
The Saints have struggled on the road this season (4-4 ATS, SB of minus-2.13), with losses to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams, while the Niners have been absolutely dominant at home (7-0-1 ATS, SB of 11.06). The line opened at Saints minus-3.5 and has stayed there, with the total being bumped up from 47 to 47.5. And the public, as expected, is backing the Saints at a 71 percent clip.
The big question is whether San Francisco's defense can slow down Drew Brees and New Orleans' offense. The 49ers defense is ranked No. 3 in the NFL by Football Outsiders with a DVOA of minus-10.3 percent and first in the NFL against the run; it only ranks eighth against the pass.
However, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports thinks the numbers for San Francisco's pass defense are a bit misleading.
"The Niners played to a 13-3 record and often had teams put away," Kulesa says. "They allowed 104 of their 229 points in the fourth quarter! There were a lot of passing yards there, and despite that they allowed just 14.3 ppg."
One major issue for the 49ers, though, is that according to FO, they rank just 20th in the NFL at defending running backs catching passes out of the backfield, and Darren Sproles is one of the NFL's best at doing just that.
Although lower-seeded wild-card winners like the Saints, who won and covered at home are only 20-29-1 ATS against higher-seeded opponents per vegasinsider.com, Kulesa sees value with the total -- not the line.
<offer></offer>
"After last week's game versus Detroit, in which the game sailed way over the 59-point total, this looks like about an easy as an over play, right? Not so fast," he says. "The big offensive numbers in the Saints' current 9-0 run, and 9-0 ATS run, have come against eight teams that have defenses ranked 20th or worse. The Saints are averaging 41.6 ppg at home but just 27.3 ppg on the road, a full two-touchdown difference. This total looks enticingly low because of the Saints' offensive prowess in recent games, but now you know the rest of the story. Play the under."
Here is the NFL Divisional Playoff Sweat Barometer:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Divisional Round NFL Sweat Barometer
<table><thead><tr><th>Rk</th><th>Team</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>ATS/H</th><th>ATS/A</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>ATS Margin</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>1</td><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>14-3-0</td><td>13-4-0</td><td>9-0-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-6.50</td><td>6.74</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>2</td><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>11-4-1</td><td>7-0-1</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-3.03</td><td>6.41</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>3</td><td>Houston Texans </td><td>11-6-0</td><td>11-5-1</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-2.74</td><td>4.56</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>4</td><td>Green Bay Packers </td><td>15-1-0</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-8.44</td><td>4.13</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>5</td><td>New England Patriots</td><td>13-3-0</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-7.69</td><td>3.00</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>6</td><td>Baltimore Ravens </td><td>12-4-0</td><td>8-7-1</td><td>4-3-1</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>-6.13</td><td>0.88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>7</td><td>New York Giants </td><td>10-7-0</td><td>9-7-1</td><td>4-4-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-0.15</td><td>0.79</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>8</td><td>Denver Broncos </td><td>9-8-0</td><td>8-8-1</td><td>2-6-1</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>2.68</td><td>-1.74</td></tr></tbody></table>
Sweat Barometer
