NFL conference championship line moves
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Last week I went to London with my wife. It's where we met, when we were college students studying abroad. I surprised her with the trip because, well, that's what you do when you make someone move so you can take a big, important job just to satisfy your ego.
But I do love the town. It's so full of history and gravitas, even the McDonald's are located in buildings that look like they could have been important once. Hey look, that's where Churchill decided to go to war, right next to the McFlurry machine. And on every corner, as ubiquitous as Starbucks, are betting shops. Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfred, all taking up space amongst the upscale shops, as if there is nothing wrong with putting down a couple of British pounds on the first half of the Arsenal game.
That's because, in England, there isn't.
When I lived in London 20 years ago, I didn't know much about the gambling world, other than the fact I lost whenever I bet my grandfather in St. Louis that the Chicago Cubs were going to beat the St. Louis Cardinals. I can't think of a single time I walked into one of those corner betting stores. This time around, I was more intrigued. The first afternoon we spent walking around -- after the requisite time spent being interested in the offbeat clothing stores, jewelry stores, tea houses and book stores -- I spied a Ladbrokes just off of Regent Street near Piccadilly Circus. It was across the road from where we stood. I looked left and nearly had my head clipped off by a double-decker that was zooming in the opposite direction. It's true, betting can kill.
Eventually we made it across the street safely, and when we opened the door to Ladbrokes it was like I had been dropped in a mini version of a mid-level Vegas sports book. An off-the-strip property that caters to locals who don't like to mess around. It was packed, but eerily quiet, with everyone focused on the small televisions hanging from the ceiling and ringing the room. There were no cigarette girls and no free drinks. Underneath each TV was a board: some for greyhound racing, some for horseracing and many, many boards for football, the English kind. I could bet all the options available to me in the U.S. for our pigskin, such as totals, first halves and sides.
For some reason, I honestly thought I'd see a board dedicated to the NFL games, too. The British are invading the American betting market. Last year, bookmaker William Hill bought three small bookmaking operations in the U.S. Meanwhile, the philosophies being used by the guys at Cantor gaming, which runs more than a half-dozen Vegas books now, come directly from work they did on financial markets in England.
From my perch in Bristol, Conn., I am constantly bombarded with the news that American football is becoming so popular in Great Britain. The NFL sells out games across the pond every season. The announcement this week of the Rams playing the Patriots in London next season was big news. On Sunday afternoon, while my lady and I were walking through Hyde Park, we spotted a couple dozen British teenagers in pads, helmets and football pants scrimmaging against each other. The kid in the Colston jersey was playing center. He snapped it to the kid in a generic No. 42, who then threw a wobbly, end-over-end screen to the kid spread wide, in the Larry Fitzgerald jersey. He promptly dropped the pass and fell to the ground chasing it -- and was laughed at and mocked by another group of teenagers watching who spoke a language I did not understand.
You'd think -- with the sport being practiced by English kids, who are mocked by kids from yet another country who understood enough about the game to know what they were watching was bad -- the game had reached a broad, worldwide popularity. Broad enough for the local betting shops to post some options. And yet, nada. I would have gone to the counter and asked for some info, but it was too crowded.
The next day I tried a different betting shop, because every gal wants to spend a romantic trip being dragged to different gambling establishments. This time, it was Betfred in Leicester Square. It looked exactly like the Ladbrokes, only with fewer people. It was Saturday night, around 5:30. And because of construction, the door happened to be blocked by a huge fence that made it difficult to tell if the place was open. You really had to want to bet if you were inside. It was the same story, though: Lots of greyhounds, lots of ponies, lots of soccer, but no NFL.
Since the place was empty, I walked up to the guy behind the counter and asked if he had any numbers for the NFL games posted?
"I have them in the computer," he told me.
"No sheets I can look at?"
"No, we don't get a lot of people asking about it."
I was crushed. I expected to hear about American football's dominance abroad.
"What are you offering?" I asked, defeated.
"I can give you New England Patriots and Denver Broncos first half, who will win and total points."
"No spread?"
"What is the spread?"
The counter was high, almost to my nose. So I grabbed a stool, dragged it over, climbed on top of it and tried to lean over to see his computer.
"Anything in there that looks like this?" I handed him a piece of paper that read, "Denver Broncos plus-13.5."
"No," he said. "All I have is New England Patriots 11-10. And I have total points at 30.5."
I had been in England for nearly 48 hours at this point. I was definitely a little jet lagged. And my head was a little woozy from a couple of pints earlier that day and the constant formulating I did on exchange rates. So forgive my next question, which might be the dumbest thing I've said since I saw a raw, gray shrimp for the first time and asked the guy behind the counter, "These are shrimp from the ocean?"
Anyway, I asked, "Is that in British pounds?"
You can understand my confusion, right? Everything in England is worth half as much as it is here in the U.S. because a pound is worth half as much as a dollar. I had a brain freeze. The teller told me a total that seemed unusually low, as if it was half of what it should be. Meanwhile, I was thinking about putting some money down so I had the idea of pounds in my head and was so baffled by the number it seemed like a mistake.
"Sir, I don't know what you mean," he said.
Neither did I. And I was too embarrassed to follow up. Not only was I the idiot American looking to bet an NFL game, I was the idiot American who didn't understand how to bet on American football. I left defeated, still never having made a bet in England.
But my wife got a good laugh out of it.
To help clear things up about this weekend's games, I have enlisted the great Jimmy Vaccaro of Lucky's sports books. He, no doubt, would never be confused when it comes to making a bet.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Line moves: Pats opened at minus-6.5, lined moved to 7.5.
Jimmy says: "I opened at seven and went to minus-7.5 almost immediately off of a big play, and smarts have been buying it back since then. I would bet it is up to eight by Sunday morning. I anticipate the smarts will take the dog late. The public saw Tom Brady throw six touchdown passes last week. It happens more times than not with the favorite in that type of angle with a team that has a huge win then going against a team that has to travel and didn't look so good. If we are strong on anything, the money is on the Pats in parlays. The numbers of people using them is three times higher than just straight bets. So I will be on the Ravens with the wise guys."
Matchup: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Line moves: Niners opened at minus-2, currently at minus-2.5
Jimmy says: "This is like a flashback to when the Niners mattered back in the day. I was in Reno last weekend and all the money in Northern Nevada is on them. Come back here to Vegas and it's all on the Giants. We actually opened at three and took a big bet on New York that pushed it down to minus-2, then there was some buyback just in case the Eli Manning illness turned out to be serious. I think this game will end up closer to minus-1 because the money will come in on the Giants. But I can tell that bookmakers will be rooting for the Niners."
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
Last week I went to London with my wife. It's where we met, when we were college students studying abroad. I surprised her with the trip because, well, that's what you do when you make someone move so you can take a big, important job just to satisfy your ego.
But I do love the town. It's so full of history and gravitas, even the McDonald's are located in buildings that look like they could have been important once. Hey look, that's where Churchill decided to go to war, right next to the McFlurry machine. And on every corner, as ubiquitous as Starbucks, are betting shops. Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfred, all taking up space amongst the upscale shops, as if there is nothing wrong with putting down a couple of British pounds on the first half of the Arsenal game.
That's because, in England, there isn't.
When I lived in London 20 years ago, I didn't know much about the gambling world, other than the fact I lost whenever I bet my grandfather in St. Louis that the Chicago Cubs were going to beat the St. Louis Cardinals. I can't think of a single time I walked into one of those corner betting stores. This time around, I was more intrigued. The first afternoon we spent walking around -- after the requisite time spent being interested in the offbeat clothing stores, jewelry stores, tea houses and book stores -- I spied a Ladbrokes just off of Regent Street near Piccadilly Circus. It was across the road from where we stood. I looked left and nearly had my head clipped off by a double-decker that was zooming in the opposite direction. It's true, betting can kill.
Eventually we made it across the street safely, and when we opened the door to Ladbrokes it was like I had been dropped in a mini version of a mid-level Vegas sports book. An off-the-strip property that caters to locals who don't like to mess around. It was packed, but eerily quiet, with everyone focused on the small televisions hanging from the ceiling and ringing the room. There were no cigarette girls and no free drinks. Underneath each TV was a board: some for greyhound racing, some for horseracing and many, many boards for football, the English kind. I could bet all the options available to me in the U.S. for our pigskin, such as totals, first halves and sides.
For some reason, I honestly thought I'd see a board dedicated to the NFL games, too. The British are invading the American betting market. Last year, bookmaker William Hill bought three small bookmaking operations in the U.S. Meanwhile, the philosophies being used by the guys at Cantor gaming, which runs more than a half-dozen Vegas books now, come directly from work they did on financial markets in England.
From my perch in Bristol, Conn., I am constantly bombarded with the news that American football is becoming so popular in Great Britain. The NFL sells out games across the pond every season. The announcement this week of the Rams playing the Patriots in London next season was big news. On Sunday afternoon, while my lady and I were walking through Hyde Park, we spotted a couple dozen British teenagers in pads, helmets and football pants scrimmaging against each other. The kid in the Colston jersey was playing center. He snapped it to the kid in a generic No. 42, who then threw a wobbly, end-over-end screen to the kid spread wide, in the Larry Fitzgerald jersey. He promptly dropped the pass and fell to the ground chasing it -- and was laughed at and mocked by another group of teenagers watching who spoke a language I did not understand.
You'd think -- with the sport being practiced by English kids, who are mocked by kids from yet another country who understood enough about the game to know what they were watching was bad -- the game had reached a broad, worldwide popularity. Broad enough for the local betting shops to post some options. And yet, nada. I would have gone to the counter and asked for some info, but it was too crowded.
The next day I tried a different betting shop, because every gal wants to spend a romantic trip being dragged to different gambling establishments. This time, it was Betfred in Leicester Square. It looked exactly like the Ladbrokes, only with fewer people. It was Saturday night, around 5:30. And because of construction, the door happened to be blocked by a huge fence that made it difficult to tell if the place was open. You really had to want to bet if you were inside. It was the same story, though: Lots of greyhounds, lots of ponies, lots of soccer, but no NFL.
Since the place was empty, I walked up to the guy behind the counter and asked if he had any numbers for the NFL games posted?
"I have them in the computer," he told me.
"No sheets I can look at?"
"No, we don't get a lot of people asking about it."
I was crushed. I expected to hear about American football's dominance abroad.
"What are you offering?" I asked, defeated.
"I can give you New England Patriots and Denver Broncos first half, who will win and total points."
"No spread?"
"What is the spread?"
The counter was high, almost to my nose. So I grabbed a stool, dragged it over, climbed on top of it and tried to lean over to see his computer.
"Anything in there that looks like this?" I handed him a piece of paper that read, "Denver Broncos plus-13.5."
"No," he said. "All I have is New England Patriots 11-10. And I have total points at 30.5."
I had been in England for nearly 48 hours at this point. I was definitely a little jet lagged. And my head was a little woozy from a couple of pints earlier that day and the constant formulating I did on exchange rates. So forgive my next question, which might be the dumbest thing I've said since I saw a raw, gray shrimp for the first time and asked the guy behind the counter, "These are shrimp from the ocean?"
Anyway, I asked, "Is that in British pounds?"
You can understand my confusion, right? Everything in England is worth half as much as it is here in the U.S. because a pound is worth half as much as a dollar. I had a brain freeze. The teller told me a total that seemed unusually low, as if it was half of what it should be. Meanwhile, I was thinking about putting some money down so I had the idea of pounds in my head and was so baffled by the number it seemed like a mistake.
"Sir, I don't know what you mean," he said.
Neither did I. And I was too embarrassed to follow up. Not only was I the idiot American looking to bet an NFL game, I was the idiot American who didn't understand how to bet on American football. I left defeated, still never having made a bet in England.
But my wife got a good laugh out of it.
To help clear things up about this weekend's games, I have enlisted the great Jimmy Vaccaro of Lucky's sports books. He, no doubt, would never be confused when it comes to making a bet.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Line moves: Pats opened at minus-6.5, lined moved to 7.5.
Jimmy says: "I opened at seven and went to minus-7.5 almost immediately off of a big play, and smarts have been buying it back since then. I would bet it is up to eight by Sunday morning. I anticipate the smarts will take the dog late. The public saw Tom Brady throw six touchdown passes last week. It happens more times than not with the favorite in that type of angle with a team that has a huge win then going against a team that has to travel and didn't look so good. If we are strong on anything, the money is on the Pats in parlays. The numbers of people using them is three times higher than just straight bets. So I will be on the Ravens with the wise guys."
Matchup: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Line moves: Niners opened at minus-2, currently at minus-2.5
Jimmy says: "This is like a flashback to when the Niners mattered back in the day. I was in Reno last weekend and all the money in Northern Nevada is on them. Come back here to Vegas and it's all on the Giants. We actually opened at three and took a big bet on New York that pushed it down to minus-2, then there was some buyback just in case the Eli Manning illness turned out to be serious. I think this game will end up closer to minus-1 because the money will come in on the Giants. But I can tell that bookmakers will be rooting for the Niners."
