Analyzing the early Super Bowl XLVI line
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
The first official Super Bowl line that I saw was from5Dimes, through the Covers.com feed on Twitter. It was listed at New England minus-3.5.
But, to be honest, it was pretty anti-climactic. During the NFC Championship Game on Sunday I spoke with Jimmy Vaccaro, the bookmaker at Lucky's. He was kicking back in a comfy chair with a bowl of pretzels, waiting for the action to come to a head; I was at my office in Bristol, waiting for the games to end so we could close the magazine.
Jimmy had actually posted lines on all the potential Super Bowl matchups earlier in the week. At this point, it doesn't matter what any of them were, except for the Pats-Giants. He opened that at New England minus-4, and not a soul had touched it prior to the game. "I had a pretty good idea that would be the case," Jimmy told me. "We had been offering the AFC minus-4 over the NFC prior to that and none of the sharps were really taking that either. Usually that line is a good indication."
<offer>But, as soon as the Giants game ended, money started pouring in on New York. The past five weeks this Giants team has morphed into something we rarely see: a favorite of the sharps and a favorite of the public. It's as if Eli Manning has put us all under a we-believe-you-are-elite spell. He's gone from the awkward, pick-throwing kid who got lucky in the biggest game of his life into the most steady, clutch hand in the game. It's uncanny. He's a freaking Svengali. It wasn't that long ago he was no different than Alex Smith. Now he is a guy you don't want to bet against for fear of what will happen if he has the ball in the last two minutes of the game. I can recite his clutch factor numbers by heart now: The most playoff road wins in NFL history. The greatest fourth-quarter passer in NFL history.</offer>
<offer></offer>
That is why, five minutes after 5dimes posted New England at minus-3.5, CRIS was offering New England minus-3. (FWIW, the total moved at warp speed, too. It opened at 54 and was over 55.5 before American Idol's post-game show went to its first commercial. According to covers.com, that is the second highest total in Super Bowl history.) At Wynn and Caesars, which both opened the game at New England minus-4, it quickly moved to minus-3.5. And that number isn't going to last, either.
The particular problem facing bookmakers with the Giants' opponent is that New England, and Tom Brady, is one of three teams, along with New Orleans and Green Bay, with as much public support as Eli's Giants the past few weeks. That forces their hand. "Books have to open the Patriots a little higher because of the sex appeal factor," Vegas vet Dave Malinsky emailed me last night before the NFC title game was over. "Anything more than a full plus-3 with the Giants will likely have us reaching into our pockets."
And that is exactly what happened. When I was talking to Jimmy he told me, "There will be pounding on this number for the next 12 hours and then it will stay there for eight days, until the props get posted and people start coming in to bet those."
Well, it was more like 12 minutes. And now that the spread is on a key number, it's going to sit around for weeks, kind of like the stench from the bucket of wings we ordered into the office last night. (It's only been a couple of hours and already I can't walk by the big conference room where we watched the game.)
Here's what is so interesting, and telling, about the Giants' run: In early November these two teams played in Foxboro. The Pats closed as nine-point favorites, and lost 24-20 thanks to a game-winning drive by Eli (this is where the third act in the Eli movie of the week would start, right after the inspirational speech from his wife while they stand in their Hoboken pad and look out at the Hudson River.) Based on that closing spread, true linemaker math would put the line on a neutral field at New England minus-6; in New Jersey, the line would have been Pats minus-3. Instead, that's the number we've got on a neutral field.
More than record-setting numbers, that is all you need to know about Eli's place in the NFL right now. If you need me to spell it out, it goes like this: E-L-I-T-E. Which is what he's been telling us all along.
Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
The first official Super Bowl line that I saw was from5Dimes, through the Covers.com feed on Twitter. It was listed at New England minus-3.5.
But, to be honest, it was pretty anti-climactic. During the NFC Championship Game on Sunday I spoke with Jimmy Vaccaro, the bookmaker at Lucky's. He was kicking back in a comfy chair with a bowl of pretzels, waiting for the action to come to a head; I was at my office in Bristol, waiting for the games to end so we could close the magazine.
Jimmy had actually posted lines on all the potential Super Bowl matchups earlier in the week. At this point, it doesn't matter what any of them were, except for the Pats-Giants. He opened that at New England minus-4, and not a soul had touched it prior to the game. "I had a pretty good idea that would be the case," Jimmy told me. "We had been offering the AFC minus-4 over the NFC prior to that and none of the sharps were really taking that either. Usually that line is a good indication."
<offer>But, as soon as the Giants game ended, money started pouring in on New York. The past five weeks this Giants team has morphed into something we rarely see: a favorite of the sharps and a favorite of the public. It's as if Eli Manning has put us all under a we-believe-you-are-elite spell. He's gone from the awkward, pick-throwing kid who got lucky in the biggest game of his life into the most steady, clutch hand in the game. It's uncanny. He's a freaking Svengali. It wasn't that long ago he was no different than Alex Smith. Now he is a guy you don't want to bet against for fear of what will happen if he has the ball in the last two minutes of the game. I can recite his clutch factor numbers by heart now: The most playoff road wins in NFL history. The greatest fourth-quarter passer in NFL history.</offer>
<offer></offer>
That is why, five minutes after 5dimes posted New England at minus-3.5, CRIS was offering New England minus-3. (FWIW, the total moved at warp speed, too. It opened at 54 and was over 55.5 before American Idol's post-game show went to its first commercial. According to covers.com, that is the second highest total in Super Bowl history.) At Wynn and Caesars, which both opened the game at New England minus-4, it quickly moved to minus-3.5. And that number isn't going to last, either.
The particular problem facing bookmakers with the Giants' opponent is that New England, and Tom Brady, is one of three teams, along with New Orleans and Green Bay, with as much public support as Eli's Giants the past few weeks. That forces their hand. "Books have to open the Patriots a little higher because of the sex appeal factor," Vegas vet Dave Malinsky emailed me last night before the NFC title game was over. "Anything more than a full plus-3 with the Giants will likely have us reaching into our pockets."
And that is exactly what happened. When I was talking to Jimmy he told me, "There will be pounding on this number for the next 12 hours and then it will stay there for eight days, until the props get posted and people start coming in to bet those."
Well, it was more like 12 minutes. And now that the spread is on a key number, it's going to sit around for weeks, kind of like the stench from the bucket of wings we ordered into the office last night. (It's only been a couple of hours and already I can't walk by the big conference room where we watched the game.)
Here's what is so interesting, and telling, about the Giants' run: In early November these two teams played in Foxboro. The Pats closed as nine-point favorites, and lost 24-20 thanks to a game-winning drive by Eli (this is where the third act in the Eli movie of the week would start, right after the inspirational speech from his wife while they stand in their Hoboken pad and look out at the Hudson River.) Based on that closing spread, true linemaker math would put the line on a neutral field at New England minus-6; in New Jersey, the line would have been Pats minus-3. Instead, that's the number we've got on a neutral field.
More than record-setting numbers, that is all you need to know about Eli's place in the NFL right now. If you need me to spell it out, it goes like this: E-L-I-T-E. Which is what he's been telling us all along.
