Value wagering?

nojuice9 · Jan 25, 2012

I was looking for alittle information or direction on 'value wagering' for baseball. I read a post on another site with a detailed discription of finding value in baseball wagering using money line, percentages.

a moneyline of +1.00 basically is a 50/50 proposition while a +1.05 is what, 49/51? I'm talking percentages. I cannot recall the line to percentage table.

what this dude was talking about is that a team is +1.20 has a chance of winning that game say 40% of the time. If you cap the game and agree with that percentage you place the wager if not you pass. The dudes whole write-up was about finding value in dogs with the line/percentage table and placing your wager if or when you find value.

I'm sure that was clear as mud, if someone could give me the moneyline to percentage table I would be thankful. Thanks in advance, laters.

nojuice9 · Feb 27, 2012

ok, I found it. the whole idea behind this is to help a punter/gambler find value in his plays - it's a tool. While handicapping a game you ask your self if they played 100-times or 1,000-times under the given circumstances of that given day would the results match-up with the percentages in this table.

Line +1.00 the percentages are 50/50. -1.05 it's 51(fav)/49(dog). -1.10 52/48. -1.15 53/47 -1.20 54/46 and so forth.

So, if your looking at a match-up and you think the dog has a better than 40% chance of winning that match-up that day and you see the favorite is -1.50, you wager on the dog. As -1.50 is 60/40. follow? If I am not doing a decent job explaining, please chime in. Again this a tool used to help you handicap games.

As always, good luck.

gynecologist · Feb 27, 2012

Heres the dog moneyline

Dog

moneyline

loss

win

win %

moneyline

loss

win

win %

400

100

400

0.200

235

100

235

0.30

395

100

395

0.202

230

100

230

0.30

390

100

390

0.204

225

100

225

0.31

385

100

385

0.206

220

100

220

0.31

380

100

380

0.208

215

100

215

0.32

375

100

375

0.211

210

100

210

0.32

370

100

370

0.213

205

100

205

0.33

365

100

365

0.215

200

100

200

0.33

360

100

360

0.217

195

100

195

0.34

355

100

355

0.220

190

100

190

0.34

350

100

350

0.222

185

100

185

0.35

345

100

345

0.225

180

100

180

0.36

340

100

340

0.227

175

100

175

0.36

335

100

335

0.230

170

100

170

0.37

330

100

330

0.233

165

100

165

0.38

325

100

325

0.235

160

100

160

0.38

320

100

320

0.238

155

100

155

0.39

315

100

315

0.241

150

100

150

0.40

310

100

310

0.244

145

100

145

0.41

305

100

305

0.247

140

100

140

0.42

300

100

300

0.250

135

100

135

0.43

295

100

295

0.253

130

100

130

0.43

290

100

290

0.256

125

100

125

0.44

285

100

285

0.260

120

100

120

0.45

280

100

280

0.263

115

100

115

0.47

275

100

275

0.267

110

100

110

0.48

265

100

265

0.274

100

100

100

0.50

270

100

270

0.270

105

100

105

0.49

265

100

265

0.274

100

100

100

0.50

260

100

260

0.278

255

100

255

0.282

250

100

250

0.286

245

100

245

0.290

240

100

240

0.294