College Basketball Sweat Baromoter (ATS Success)

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College Basketball Sweat Barometer

By Jeff Gold
ESPN INSIDER
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What is the Sweat Barometer?

The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first 15 Vegas-posted games this season, the Georgetown Hoyas went 7-1 against the spread and covered by a margin of 5.8 points. Generally, that would make the Hoyas a good bet. On the flip side, through the Pittsburgh Panthers' first 15 posted games, they were minus-6.94. That's bad.
The against-the-spread (ATS) margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.


For the past several weeks, as the sweat barometer has been compiled, Pittsburgh has appeared at the bottom. A program that has won 25 or more games every year since 2005 (averaging 27.5) has been among the worst bets all season.

A college basketball power was stuck in the sweat barometer cellar last season as well. Michigan State was a nightmare to its backers, going a terrible 13-21 ATS (against the spread). Often, the Spartans didn't even come close to covering. The sweat barometer is a metric that shows which teams on average cover/fail to cover the spread by the biggest margin. The data comes from professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com.

A season after killing its supporters, Michigan State has been a solid play. We all know that the Spartans have been a great bet come March, as Tom Izzo has led his team to six final fours, including the 2000 national championship. This season however, Michigan State has been a great team to support throughout the regular season.

"Last year, Michigan State came in overrated thanks to their run through the Final Four the year before. But Kalin Lucas wasn't totally healthy and Izzo said the team didn't have any chemistry and players were not gelling. If a team isn't gelling they are going to be lousy ATS," Selvaggio said. "This season, with expectations lower than usual, Izzo does what he always does, which [is] having his teams exceed those low expectations. As usual, his team is a beast on the glass, plays outstanding defense and runs an efficient offense. I expect them to be a nightmare opponent for whatever team draws them come tourney time."
Michigan State has just two players averaging double figures in scoring, Draymond Green (15.0) and Keith Appling (12.6) but has the top rebounding margin in the Big 10 and is tied with Ohio State for the most assists per game.
Because Michigan State is so synonymous with tournament success, there might actually be value in betting this team during the regular season.
Let's turn to this week's Sweat Barometer, where once again the South Dakota State Jackrabbits remain atop the chart. The last undefeated team in the nation, Murray State, isn't even in the SB's top 25. Funny how that works.

Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25

<table><thead><tr><th>Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>ATS/H</th><th>ATS/A</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>South Dakota State Jackrabbits</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>10-2-1</td><td>4-0-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>7.81</td><td>-4.12</td><td>63</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Missouri Tigers (2)</td><td>17-1-0</td><td>10-4-0</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>2-2-0</td><td>6.29</td><td>-10.36</td><td>11</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio Bobcats</td><td>15-4-0</td><td>8-4-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>6.25</td><td>-2.33</td><td>71</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Texas Mean Green</td><td>12-8-0</td><td>10-3-0</td><td>3-1-0</td><td>6-1-0</td><td>6.08</td><td>2</td><td>187</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</td><td>19-2-0</td><td>13-4-1</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>7-1-1</td><td>5.81</td><td>-6.47</td><td>52</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wyoming Cowboys</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>10-4-0</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>5.75</td><td>-6.04</td><td>88</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Providence Friars</td><td>12-8-0</td><td>5-7-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>3-1-0</td><td>5.25</td><td>5.5</td><td>124</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan State Spartans (10)</td><td>15-4-0</td><td>12-5-0</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>5.12</td><td>-8.06</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seton Hall Pirates</td><td>15-4-0</td><td>10-5-0</td><td>6-1-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>5.1</td><td>-1.77</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Manhattan Jaspers</td><td>14-7-0</td><td>14-5-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>8-2-0</td><td>4.61</td><td>1.34</td><td>115</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wofford Terriers</td><td>12-8-0</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>6-0-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>4.57</td><td>3</td><td>174</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>La Salle Explorers</td><td>14-6-0</td><td>9-4-1</td><td>5-1-1</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>4.54</td><td>-1.61</td><td>81</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Creighton Bluejays (15)</td><td>17-2-0</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>4.25</td><td>-4.63</td><td>17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa State Cyclones</td><td>14-5-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>4.2</td><td>-3.07</td><td>53</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Montana Grizzlies</td><td>13-6-0</td><td>9-4-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>4-1-1</td><td>4.18</td><td>-4.32</td><td>137</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida State Seminoles (23)</td><td>13-6-0</td><td>10-6-1</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>4.12</td><td>-5.29</td><td>23</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Southern Utah Thunderbirds</td><td>10-10-0</td><td>8-6-1</td><td>1-3-1</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>4.07</td><td>4.27</td><td>246</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cal Poly Mustangs</td><td>11-8-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>4</td><td>-1</td><td>166</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nevada Wolf Pack</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>5-0-0</td><td>4</td><td>-3.07</td><td>73</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UTEP Miners</td><td>10-10-0</td><td>10-6-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>3.91</td><td>2.78</td><td>143</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Loyola Marymount Lions</td><td>11-8-0</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>3.85</td><td>2.03</td><td>108</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes (4)</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>3.47</td><td>-14.47</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Dakota State Bison</td><td>13-6-0</td><td>9-5-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>3.46</td><td>-3.11</td><td>272</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>California Golden Bears</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>12-6-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>3.42</td><td>-9.31</td><td>35</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Buffalo Bulls</td><td>9-6-0</td><td>6-9-0</td><td>2-5-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>3.4</td><td>-1.33</td><td>92</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->Remaining AP Top 25

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Cavaliers (19)</td><td>15-3-0</td><td>9-4-0</td><td>3-3-0</td><td>4-0-0</td><td>3.04</td><td>-7.04</td><td>54</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Murray State Racers (11)</td><td>20-0-0</td><td>7-7-1</td><td>1-3-1</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>2.93</td><td>-8.33</td><td>33</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas State Wildcats (22)</td><td>14-4-0</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>3-4-0</td><td>2-2-0</td><td>2.89</td><td>-3.61</td><td>25</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor Bears (6)</td><td>15-2-0</td><td>5-4-1</td><td>1-3-0</td><td>3-1-1</td><td>2.8</td><td>-3.55</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgetown Hoyas (9)</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>2.29</td><td>-5.5</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UNLV Rebels (12)</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>7-8-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>1.6</td><td>-8.47</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan Wolverines (20)</td><td>15-5-0</td><td>9-7-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>1-3-0</td><td>1.59</td><td>-4.66</td><td>27</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Hoosiers (16)</td><td>15-4-0</td><td>8-5-1</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>2-3-1</td><td>1.54</td><td>-4.18</td><td>20</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Diego State Aztecs (13)</td><td>17-2-0</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>1.5</td><td>-4.5</td><td>29</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas Jayhawks (5)</td><td>16-3-0</td><td>8-9-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>2-1-0</td><td>1.38</td><td>-10.21</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Syracuse Orange (3)</td><td>21-1-0</td><td>13-8-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>5-1-0</td><td>1.33</td><td>-15.1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Saint Mary's Gaels (21)</td><td>19-2-0</td><td>8-6-1</td><td>4-3-1</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>0.17</td><td>-11.17</td><td>30</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin Badgers (25)</td><td>16-5-0</td><td>11-6-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>4-2-0</td><td>0.09</td><td>-10.15</td><td>32</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mississippi State Bulldogs (18)</td><td>15-4-0</td><td>10-8-0</td><td>5-6-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>-0.06</td><td>-6.44</td><td>38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Gators (14)</td><td>14-4-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>3-2-0</td><td>-0.93</td><td>-10.93</td><td>36</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marquette Golden Eagles (17)</td><td>16-4-0</td><td>8-8-1</td><td>2-5-1</td><td>4-1-0</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-8.97</td><td>12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Carolina Tar Heels (7)</td><td>12-3-0</td><td>8-7-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>2-3-0</td><td>-1.63</td><td>-15.3</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kentucky Wildcats (1)</td><td>18-1-0</td><td>4-14-0</td><td>2-10-0</td><td>0-3-0</td><td>-2.06</td><td>-18.61</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke Blue Devils (8)</td><td>15-3-0</td><td>6-12-0</td><td>3-6-0</td><td>1-3-0</td><td>-2.89</td><td>-12.61</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Connecticut Huskies (24)</td><td>14-5-0</td><td>4-9-2</td><td>3-3-1</td><td>1-4-0</td><td>-3.47</td><td>-8</td><td>18</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 3 --><!-- begin inline 4 -->SB Bottom 5

<table><thead><tr><th>Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Canisius Golden Griffins</td><td>4-15-0</td><td>6-10-0</td><td>2-4-0</td><td>4-6-0</td><td>-4.78</td><td>8.03</td><td>329</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Santa Clara Broncos</td><td>8-11-0</td><td>5-11-0</td><td>2-6-0</td><td>1-4-0</td><td>-5.25</td><td>1.63</td><td>241</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cal State Northridge Matadors</td><td>5-12-0</td><td>6-7-0</td><td>1-3-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>-5.58</td><td>8.5</td><td>320</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Northern Arizona Lumberjacks</td><td>4-15-0</td><td>4-12-0</td><td>1-4-0</td><td>3-6-0</td><td>-6.19</td><td>7.94</td><td>317</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Panthers</td><td>11-9-0</td><td>5-10-0</td><td>0-7-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>-7.8</td><td>-6</td><td>103</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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