Predicting Super Bowl XLVI
Breaking down the game, plus which way the prop bets should go
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner
numberFire
ESPN Insider
Although media drama dominates right now heading into a Super Bowl rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, many of you are more concerned with predicting the matchup (and the props). Us, too, so let's dive in.
Offense
By now, everyone knows the Patriots have an edge on offense, with their No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack and No. 6 opponent-adjusted running game. The effective passing does wonders for the rushing game despite what conventional statistics might indicate: Although they rank just 20th in rushing yards, the Patriots know when to run, and, when they do, they do it efficiently. Their 47 percent run success rate is phenomenal, third in the NFL behind only the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. The Giants, on the other hand, have the 30th-ranked success rate, a mundane 37 percent.
Eli Manning has been leading a dominant Giants passing attack that includes two of the most efficient receivers in the league. The Giants rank sixth in the league after adjusting for the strength of opposing pass defenses, and they'll need every yard they can scrounge up against the high-flying Patriots.
As good as the Giants are, though, the Patriots are simply much, much better.
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In fact, the Patriots' passing game increases their chances of scoring by almost three-and-a-half times versus the Giants' aerial assault on every single play. On average, the Patriots add a touchdown above expectation per every 30 passing plays; if you substituted a league-average passing attack in for the Pats', they'd score about 10 fewer points per game through the air. For the Giants, that advantage is reduced to 2½ points.
Defense
On the defensive side of the ball, although the Giants are vastly improved over their playoff hot streak, they are still a league-average defense. They prevent just one point from being scored per game that a league-average defense would allow. Even being average in this regard is better than the Patriots, though; their defense allows 1.5 more points than an average defense would per game.
The real matchup to watch, though, is how the Patriots' ramshackle secondary handles the elite receivers of the Giants. The Pats are the No. 28 opponent-adjusted passing defense in the league, surrendering huge chunks of yards through the air week in and week out. On the opposite side of the line, you have Victor Cruz, who was the fourth most efficient receiver in the league this year, adding five points above expectation to the Giants' offense for every four receptions. Add in another point per reception above expectation from Hakeem Nicks and you have serious problems for a weak Patriots secondary.
Still, there is a silver lining for New England. Although Cruz was fourth in the league in efficiency, the Patriots can boast two players who were even better: Rob Gronkowski (No. 3) a
nd Wes Welker (No. 1).
Game projection
Most analysts predict this to be a very close game, and our numbers agree. The Giants have strengths that can exploit the Patriots' weaknesses, and vice versa. Add in a dose of history and you have the makings of a great Super Bowl.
A little bit about our methodology: We used advanced efficiency metrics to evaluate every aspect of both teams. Note that these metrics are very different from traditional statistics. For example, even though the Patriots rank just No. 20 in rushing yards, the fact that they run the ball successfully 47 percent of the time means they're a much better offensive unit than they're given credit for. Once we have those metrics, we then find the most comparable teams and matchups based on these efficiency scores. With each matchup weighted based on how similar the teams are to the 2011 Patriots and Giants, we aggregate the results to attain highly accurate projections of future performance.
We found more than 1,000 games that were statistically significant in their similarity to the Super Bowl. The good news is that these predictors think the game will be close, perhaps down to the last drive. The bad news, at least for Giants fans, is that sometimes close just isn't good enough.
Prediction: New England 28, New York 24
Another aspect of the Super Bowl experience is the hundreds of prop bets offered around the game, everything from who'll win the coin flip to what color the Gatorade bath will be, should one occur. Just like the game projection itself, our system allows us to quantitatively look at each one to provide value to anyone who wants to take a shot on some of the props.
Prop: A team during the game will not score three unanswered times.
(+155, on Bovada)
We'll start off with what seems on the surface to be a surefire thing. With teams that are this evenly matched, the likelihood of a team scoring three straight times seems low -- certainly not enough to make it an underdog bet. The math, however, says otherwise. The past three seasons indicate that a team scored three straight times in 71.1 percent of games, which means this particular scenario happens only 28.9 percent of the time. A money line of plus-155 implies a likelihood of 39.22 percent, so the odds are dramatically against you if you take this bet. Of course, this being Vegas, the other side of this prop isn't minus-155. No, It's minus-190, which is just high enough to scare smart money away.
Prop: How many yards will the first touchdown of the game be?
This is another interesting prop because it plays into the anecdotal evidence that because both of these teams have high-powered offenses, the likelihood of a longer touchdown is higher than usual. Even if you factor in defensive and special-teams touchdowns, though, this holds true only for the Giants. The average touchdown length for the Patriots is only 12.70 yards, whereas the Giants' average is a little higher at 20.76 yards. As such, ignore the low-likelihood props at either end (such as 1-7 yards at 5-4 and 26-39 yards at 5-1) and focus on the intermediate ones: 8-15 yards at 4-1 and our pick, 16-25 yards at 9-2.
Prop: Will the Patriots have more or fewer than two sacks?
(Over 2, +110, on Bovada)
This is another prop that jumps out on the surface because, over the course of the year, the Patriots average 2.5 sacks per game. This is notable because not only is it a figure that is already above the prop but it's also one that is giving value at plus-110. Of course, there are two teams on the field, so let's look at the Giants from a sack prevention standpoint. The Giants have given up 28 sacks, a little under the prop at 1.75 per game. That's not the whole story, though. Given that the Giants are likely to throw the ball more often to expose the Patriots' poor secondary and to keep up with what is likely to be an offensive shootout, they're going to be dropping back more than in an average game. Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers sacked Manning six times, perhaps showing coach Bill Belichick some interesting ideas for how to blitz the Giants. Our 10 strongest predictors show an average of 2.7 sacks for teams similar to the Patriots, so we feel very confident in taking the over here.
(Over 2.5, -115 on Bovada)
This is another example of line makers using anecdotal and public opinion to set a line. Most casual fans don't think of Bradshaw as a threat in the receiving game, certainly not with Cruz, Nicks, Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard running wild against a soft Patriots secondary. Bradshaw has been over 2.5 receptions in each of the past four games, however, including a matchup against a similarly porous secondary in Green Bay. Following the logic that Belichick is likely to double the playmaking receivers and cede shorter completions to bleed a slightly slower death, Bradshaw likely will be available in the flat on most passing downs. The combination of matchup plus recent history shakes this out as an easy over despite common misconceptions about Bradshaw's skill set.
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Breaking down the game, plus which way the prop bets should go
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner
numberFire
ESPN Insider
Although media drama dominates right now heading into a Super Bowl rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, many of you are more concerned with predicting the matchup (and the props). Us, too, so let's dive in.
Offense
By now, everyone knows the Patriots have an edge on offense, with their No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack and No. 6 opponent-adjusted running game. The effective passing does wonders for the rushing game despite what conventional statistics might indicate: Although they rank just 20th in rushing yards, the Patriots know when to run, and, when they do, they do it efficiently. Their 47 percent run success rate is phenomenal, third in the NFL behind only the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. The Giants, on the other hand, have the 30th-ranked success rate, a mundane 37 percent.
Eli Manning has been leading a dominant Giants passing attack that includes two of the most efficient receivers in the league. The Giants rank sixth in the league after adjusting for the strength of opposing pass defenses, and they'll need every yard they can scrounge up against the high-flying Patriots.
As good as the Giants are, though, the Patriots are simply much, much better.
<offer>
In fact, the Patriots' passing game increases their chances of scoring by almost three-and-a-half times versus the Giants' aerial assault on every single play. On average, the Patriots add a touchdown above expectation per every 30 passing plays; if you substituted a league-average passing attack in for the Pats', they'd score about 10 fewer points per game through the air. For the Giants, that advantage is reduced to 2½ points.
Defense
On the defensive side of the ball, although the Giants are vastly improved over their playoff hot streak, they are still a league-average defense. They prevent just one point from being scored per game that a league-average defense would allow. Even being average in this regard is better than the Patriots, though; their defense allows 1.5 more points than an average defense would per game.
The real matchup to watch, though, is how the Patriots' ramshackle secondary handles the elite receivers of the Giants. The Pats are the No. 28 opponent-adjusted passing defense in the league, surrendering huge chunks of yards through the air week in and week out. On the opposite side of the line, you have Victor Cruz, who was the fourth most efficient receiver in the league this year, adding five points above expectation to the Giants' offense for every four receptions. Add in another point per reception above expectation from Hakeem Nicks and you have serious problems for a weak Patriots secondary.
Still, there is a silver lining for New England. Although Cruz was fourth in the league in efficiency, the Patriots can boast two players who were even better: Rob Gronkowski (No. 3) a
nd Wes Welker (No. 1).
Game projection
Most analysts predict this to be a very close game, and our numbers agree. The Giants have strengths that can exploit the Patriots' weaknesses, and vice versa. Add in a dose of history and you have the makings of a great Super Bowl.
A little bit about our methodology: We used advanced efficiency metrics to evaluate every aspect of both teams. Note that these metrics are very different from traditional statistics. For example, even though the Patriots rank just No. 20 in rushing yards, the fact that they run the ball successfully 47 percent of the time means they're a much better offensive unit than they're given credit for. Once we have those metrics, we then find the most comparable teams and matchups based on these efficiency scores. With each matchup weighted based on how similar the teams are to the 2011 Patriots and Giants, we aggregate the results to attain highly accurate projections of future performance.
We found more than 1,000 games that were statistically significant in their similarity to the Super Bowl. The good news is that these predictors think the game will be close, perhaps down to the last drive. The bad news, at least for Giants fans, is that sometimes close just isn't good enough.
Prediction: New England 28, New York 24
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Prop bet analysisAnother aspect of the Super Bowl experience is the hundreds of prop bets offered around the game, everything from who'll win the coin flip to what color the Gatorade bath will be, should one occur. Just like the game projection itself, our system allows us to quantitatively look at each one to provide value to anyone who wants to take a shot on some of the props.
Prop: A team during the game will not score three unanswered times.
(+155, on Bovada)
We'll start off with what seems on the surface to be a surefire thing. With teams that are this evenly matched, the likelihood of a team scoring three straight times seems low -- certainly not enough to make it an underdog bet. The math, however, says otherwise. The past three seasons indicate that a team scored three straight times in 71.1 percent of games, which means this particular scenario happens only 28.9 percent of the time. A money line of plus-155 implies a likelihood of 39.22 percent, so the odds are dramatically against you if you take this bet. Of course, this being Vegas, the other side of this prop isn't minus-155. No, It's minus-190, which is just high enough to scare smart money away.
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Prop: How many yards will the first touchdown of the game be?
This is another interesting prop because it plays into the anecdotal evidence that because both of these teams have high-powered offenses, the likelihood of a longer touchdown is higher than usual. Even if you factor in defensive and special-teams touchdowns, though, this holds true only for the Giants. The average touchdown length for the Patriots is only 12.70 yards, whereas the Giants' average is a little higher at 20.76 yards. As such, ignore the low-likelihood props at either end (such as 1-7 yards at 5-4 and 26-39 yards at 5-1) and focus on the intermediate ones: 8-15 yards at 4-1 and our pick, 16-25 yards at 9-2.
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Prop: Will the Patriots have more or fewer than two sacks?
(Over 2, +110, on Bovada)
This is another prop that jumps out on the surface because, over the course of the year, the Patriots average 2.5 sacks per game. This is notable because not only is it a figure that is already above the prop but it's also one that is giving value at plus-110. Of course, there are two teams on the field, so let's look at the Giants from a sack prevention standpoint. The Giants have given up 28 sacks, a little under the prop at 1.75 per game. That's not the whole story, though. Given that the Giants are likely to throw the ball more often to expose the Patriots' poor secondary and to keep up with what is likely to be an offensive shootout, they're going to be dropping back more than in an average game. Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers sacked Manning six times, perhaps showing coach Bill Belichick some interesting ideas for how to blitz the Giants. Our 10 strongest predictors show an average of 2.7 sacks for teams similar to the Patriots, so we feel very confident in taking the over here.
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Prop: Will Ahmad Bradshaw have more or fewer than 2.5 receptions?(Over 2.5, -115 on Bovada)
This is another example of line makers using anecdotal and public opinion to set a line. Most casual fans don't think of Bradshaw as a threat in the receiving game, certainly not with Cruz, Nicks, Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard running wild against a soft Patriots secondary. Bradshaw has been over 2.5 receptions in each of the past four games, however, including a matchup against a similarly porous secondary in Green Bay. Following the logic that Belichick is likely to double the playmaking receivers and cede shorter completions to bleed a slightly slower death, Bradshaw likely will be available in the flat on most passing downs. The combination of matchup plus recent history shakes this out as an easy over despite common misconceptions about Bradshaw's skill set.
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