2012 all things oscars.......

It's February!!!!!!! Time to start up the Oscar debates, discussions, & values!

Here are the nominees........

Best Picture
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"The Help"
"Moneyball"
"War Horse"
"The Tree of Life"
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Best Actress
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Best Director
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
JC Chandor, "Margin Call"
Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, "Bridesmaids"
Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
John Logan, "Hugo"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, "The Ides of March"
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Best Animated Feature
"A Cat In Paris"
"Chico & Rita"
"Kung Fu Panda 2"
"Puss in Boots"
"Rango"
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Original Score
"The Adventures of Tintin," John Williams
"The Artist," Ludovic Bource
"Hugo," Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse," John Williams
Best Original Song
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets; Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio," Rio; Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, Lyric by Siedah Garrett
Best Achievement in Art Direction
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"War Horse"
Best Achievement in Cinematography
"The Artist"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"
Best Achievement in Costume Design
"Anonymous"
"The Artist"
"Hugo"
"Jane Eyre"
"W.E."
Best Documentary Feature
"Hell and Back Again"
"If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front"
"Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory"
"Pina"
"Undefeated"
Best Documentary Short Subject
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement?"
"God Is the Bigger Elvis"
"Incident in New Baghdad"
"Saving Face"
"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom"
Best Achievement in Film Editing
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
Best Achievement in Makeup
"Albert Nobbs"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"The Iron Lady"
Best Animated Short Film
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Best Live Action Short Film
"Pentecost"
"Raju"
"The Shore"
"Time Freak"
"Tuba Atlantic"
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
"Drive"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
"War Horse"
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
"War Horse"
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Real Steel"
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

Only movie I saw was Moneyball so far. I thought Pitt did a very good job. Johna Hill was good but not award winning IMO.

seen

"Midnight in Paris" - liked it a lot
"The Help" - very good movie!
"Moneyball" - damn good
"War Horse" - good movie for all ages
"The Tree of Life" one of most fucked up movies but I liked it.

Just bought the dvd of "The Artist" and "The Descendants" today.

some huge chalk this year

Park--- Any early leans?

The Artist is going to win Best Picture. It's got too much momentum.

George Clooney wins Best Actor.

Locks.

Funny thing is I didn't even like Clooney in the Descendants. He has wayyyy better performances out there then that imo

84TH ACADEMY AWARDS - ODDS TO WIN ***ABC Lines From:
02-08-2012 14:22:29
Cut Off # Description Odds
84TH ACADEMY AWARDS - ODDS TO WIN ***ABC - FEB 13

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST PICTURE OSCAR
701101 ALL BETS ACTION
701102
701103 EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE +5000
701104 HUGO +1500
701105 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS +5000
701106 MONEYBALL +5000
701107 THE ARTIST -650
701108 THE DESCENDANTS +425
701109 THE HELP +2000
701110 THE TREE OF LIFE +6000
701111 WAR HORSE +2500

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST ACTOR (LEADING ROLE) OSCAR
701125 ALL BETS ACTION
701126
701127 BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL) +1500
701128 DEMIAN BICHIR (A BETTER LIFE) +5000
701129 GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY) +5000
701130 GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS) -200
701131 JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST) +135

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST ACTRESS (LEADING ROLE) OSCAR
701135 ALL BETS ACTION
701136
701137 GLENN CLOSE (ALBERT NOBBS) +3000
701138 MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY) -185
701139 MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN) +750
701140 ROONEY MARA (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO) +3000
701141 VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP) -135

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST DIRECTOR OSCAR
701145 ALL BETS ACTION
701146
701147 ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS) +1000
701148 MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO) +350
701149 MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST) -600
701150 TERRENCE MALICK (THE TREE OF LIFE) +4000
701151 WOODY ALLEN (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS) +3000

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OSCAR
701155 ALL BETS ACTION
701156
701157 CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS) -5500
701158 JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL) +5000
701159 KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN) +1200
701160 MAX VON SYDOW (EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE +2000
701161 NICK NOLTE (WARRIOR) +3000

FEB 13 - 11:59 PM 84TH AA - BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS OSCAR
701165 ALL BETS ACTION
701166
701167 BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST) +900
701168 JANET MCTEER (ALBERT NOBBS) +3000
701169 JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP) +2000
701170 MELISSA MCCARTHY (BRIDESMAIDS) +3000
701171 OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP) -2400

I have a unit and a half on Clooney at -150, only line that stuck out for me.... I haven't seen any of these movies but theses things are like political campaigns...

u can almost bank on " Puss n boots" winning animated movie....but i havent seen the odds yet...they might reflect my prediction as well

Will say more later but for now I would stay away from Clooney at current odds. Most beginning to lean to Dujardin as the frontrunner and others are still in the mix as well. A minus number for Clooney is definitely not worth a wager. Also good chance he won't win at the BAFTA's this weekend and if Dujardin wins instead the odds will change substantially. fwiw I think Oldman win at the BAFTA.

Briefly The Artist is the rightful large favorite for best picture, as of this second I think its getting very close to the 90%+ category but the later it goes the more clearer the picture. For Best Actress Viola Davis seems like a solid fav, better then the odds suggest. However may not want to bet on her right now as Streep is likelier to win the BAFTA this weekend and that will likely sway the odds back in her favor for the Oscar. Right now I'd say Viola is at least in the 60% range, wouldn't change this opinion much if Streep wins the BAFTA. Although if Davis wins the BAFTA I'd say we're in the 70%+ range and I would take anything under -200 immediately.

Spencer/Plummer both look very strong but the odds are not worth the bother. Plummer is known to be a bit of an asshole as well so even though he's won virtually every pre cursor award it may not be a slam dunk.

Also think Scorcese might be able to win best director, certainly wouldn't be betting on Haznavicious at current odds.

i agree about Clooney being risky...any other year, they'd probably like to reward him...but this guy from The Artist, is just running away with everything so far, and really has the "media blitz" right now....he's kinda the "it" guy right now, for this crazy movie and the role he did in a modern day silent movie....

kinda reminds me of that year where that Benicio Del Toro won....he was no household name at the time, but he just won every award on earth for that role in Traffic.....

Well like I said these things are campaigns, with The Artist clearly taking best picture I'm sure The Descendants' studio will put all their resources behind George for best actor.

With the exception of maybe a few minor categories, it doesn't seem like we've had any humongous upsets at the Oscars for a long time.

HPark1 said:

Will say more later but for now I would stay away from Clooney at current odds. Most beginning to lean to Dujardin as the frontrunner and others are still in the mix as well. A minus number for Clooney is definitely not worth a wager. Also good chance he won't win at the BAFTA's this weekend and if Dujardin wins instead the odds will change substantially. fwiw I think Oldman win at the BAFTA.

Briefly The Artist is the rightful large favorite for best picture, as of this second I think its getting very close to the 90%+ category but the later it goes the more clearer the picture. For Best Actress Viola Davis seems like a solid fav, better then the odds suggest. However may not want to bet on her right now as Streep is likelier to win the BAFTA this weekend and that will likely sway the odds back in her favor for the Oscar. Right now I'd say Viola is at least in the 60% range, wouldn't change this opinion much if Streep wins the BAFTA. Although if Davis wins the BAFTA I'd say we're in the 70%+ range and I would take anything under -200 immediately.

Spencer/Plummer both look very strong but the odds are not worth the bother. Plummer is known to be a bit of an asshole as well so even though he's won virtually every pre cursor award it may not be a slam dunk.

Also think Scorcese might be able to win best director, certainly wouldn't be betting on Haznavicious at current odds.

Click to expand...

got anything for the grammy's ?

BATFA's give Dujardin the best actor over Brit fav Oldman. Little surprised with this outcome, really don't understand how Oldman lost here. Wonder who counts the votes and more importantly if they even matter sometimes...

Anyways Dujardin really has to be considered the fav here now although I'm still not fully convinced he'll win. But a SAG and now BAFTA victory usually grounds for a big fav.

As I almost hoped for Streep got the win over Davis and that should curtail the odds getting to unattractive for Davis. I'll update later on if my sentiment alters but I do believe Davis is still a nice fav to win. -110/-120 is a good bet.

*Akilles posted in the grammy thread. Unfortunately with Adele turning into such a huge fav across the board the opportunities didn't materialize this year. Bon Iver to win best new artist at roughly 3-1 the only bet I can see. Decent play, looks to be Minaj vs Bon Iver with Minaj maybe being the small fav.

Bodog has Clooney at +110

Too bad I will away for the Oscars....

KayJoy said:

Bodog has Clooney at +110

Click to expand...

At betfair there was already some money matched on Dujardin -117, so that would give you +112 (5% commission) on any other than him....with that in mind and the momentum he has picked up over the last couple of weeks, him winning the SAG (I think the winner of the SAG award also won the oscar the same year since 2006) and the SAG voters also accounting for a good chunk of the oscar votes, I'd expect Dujardin to drop to -125 to -135 until the awards and Clooneys should just keep going up.

Dujardin is considered a large fav by most oscar observers. For whatever reason not completely sold by I do believe the line should be higher, something in the range of -150 to -200. I would bet anything under -125 without hesitation.

On my own on this one but actually believe Brad Pitt has a shot.