Betting UFC 143

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Betting UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

Analyzing and picking winners against the spread for all fights at UFC 143


By John Candido
FightMetric

ESPN INSIDER
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The dust will settle at UFC 143, as the five-month saga surrounding the welterweight division will finally conclude with the naming of an interim champion. Though the belt will be on the line, nerves shouldn't play a role in this one, as the featured fighters on this card are not strangers to title fights. Headlining the event is former WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit versus former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz.

If that isn't enough to give you your fill of former champions, the card's second billing will feature former IFL heavyweight champion Roy Nelson against former ADCC World Submission Wrestling heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum. Impressive as they are, don't get lost in the credentials, as the stats paint a much better picture of where to find value in Vegas this Saturday night. Here are Insider's picks for UFC 143:

<center>Fabricio Werdum (minus-125) vs. Roy Nelson (minus-105)

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Neither Nelson nor Werdum has ever been submitted in his MMA career. This would seem to work against submission specialist Werdum, who has registered eight of 14 wins by submission. He also averages an active submission attempt rate of 1.74 per 15 minutes. But what most bettors will overlook coming into this fight is Werdum's striking ability, thinking that Nelson has the advantage in this area because of his history of spectacular knockouts.
<offer>In reality, Werdum's technical striking ability is just as good as Nelson's, landing 2.35 strikes per minute compared to Nelson's 2.37 SLpM. Werdum also has a higher striking accuracy rate at 44 percent compared to Nelson (37 percent). The key difference, though, is the amount of damage that Nelson routinely takes. On average, Nelson's 4.57 strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) are extremely high compared to Werdum's 1.88 SApM. In the event Fabricio wants to take the fight to the ground, he lands 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to "Big Country," who lands only 0.91.

Though Nelson has demonstrated the ability to definitively close out fights via KO in the past, Werdum has been knocked out only once, and that was against current heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos. Given that Werdum has just as much of an advantage striking as he does with takedowns and submissions, getting close to even odds is a great value for him at minus-125.

Insider Pick: Werdum


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<center>Main Event: Five Rounds

</center><center>Nick Diaz (minus-175) vs. Carlos Condit (plus-155)

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Diaz made quite an entrance in his return to the UFC, as he put on a volume punching clinic against B.J. Penn, who is widely considered to be one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the history of mixed martial arts. Condit has also made a terrific impression in his three years since joining the UFC, racking up three straight fights won by KO or TKO, with each receiving a combination of fight of the night and KO of the night honors. Though Condit has had the more spectacular knockouts as of late, there is one statistic that makes Condit overrated at plus-155.

In 32 career fights, Condit has never gone five rounds in a single match. In fact, 23 of his fights have ended in the first round. On the other hand, there is no question regarding Diaz's ability to go the distance. He is sixth all-time in total strikes landed -- with 1,339 -- and is widely regarded as having some of the best cardio in MMA. Diaz routinely beats opponents by simply outlasting them. The key to his strategy is that he maintains an impossible pace to keep up with, averaging an insanely high 6.22 SLpM. Compare this to Condit, who lands only 2.61 SLpM, and you can see why he's going to have a tough time hanging with Diaz.

If Condit does make it five rounds, note that three of his five losses have come by decision. Finally, with Condit's best chance being a potential knockout, the fact that Diaz hasn't been KO'd in nine years really demonstrates why minus-175 is a great price for this undervalued favorite.

Insider Pick: Diaz



Josh Koscheck (minus-255) vs. Mike Pierce (plus-205)

Though Condit might have seemed like the tougher opponent for Koscheck this Saturday night, the reality is that Pierce is likely to give him just as much of a fight. It's surprising to see Pierce as a very large dog at plus-205, given that he holds a statistical advantage against Koscheck in nearly every category.

In his 17-fight career, Pierce has lost just four times -- once to rising star Johny Hendricks, once to pound-for-pound great Jon Fitch and once to middleweight contender Mark Munoz. And in his career, Pierce has used his wrestling credentials to suffer losses only via decision, meaning he has never been finished within three rounds. Though Koscheck is known for his exceptional wrestling ability, Pierce has averaged more takedowns than Koscheck, landing 3.67 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Koscheck's 2.73 at almost an identical takedown rate of 54 percent.

The main difference is Pierce's ability to defend the takedown by successfully stopping 77 percent of attempts. He also outstrikes Koscheck, landing 2.93 strikes per minute compared to Koscheck's 1.84. Given that Pierce has never taken a loss outside of a decision and has historically outperformed Koscheck in striking and takedowns, a price as high as plus-205 is worth a look.

Insider Pick: Pierce


<hr style="width: 50%;">​
<center>Renan Barao (minus-250) vs. Scott Jorgensen (plus-190)

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It's no wonder why Barao is a favorite at minus-250 against Jorgensen in this bantamweight match. Outside of Barao's first MMA match, which he lost by split decision, he has won every single fight since 2005 for a total of 27 victories. He holds a significant advantage in the ground game with a takedown accuracy rate of 78 percent and a terrific takedown defense rate of 86 percent. While this will bode well for him, given that Jorgensen's strength is his signature ground-and-pound ability from the guard, the majority of Barao's fights have come against weaker competition.

It wasn't until June 2010 that Barao finally debuted in the WEC, and after just two fights there he has had just two fights in the UFC, one of which didn't last past the first round. With only a four-fight record off which to judge him, it is hard to predict with confidence that he will be able to sustain these gaudy numbers facing the more talented competition in the UFC's bantamweight division. And while it does remain true that he has proven able to take on all challengers thus far, it'd be best to give Barao more opportunities to show his stuff against more talented opponents before fully buying into his seemingly unbeatable talents and considering him such a solid favorite at minus-250.


Insider Pick: Stay away


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<center>Edwin Figueroa (minus-160) vs. Alex Caceres (plus-130)

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Neither Caceres nor Figueroa has ever been knocked out in his short career, and neither has attempted a single takedown in any of his fights in the UFC. Considering this stat, it isn't unreasonable to assume this fight will likely be standing. Thus a comparison of their striking ability on the feet should give us the clearest idea of which fighter should get the best of the other in this likely one-dimensional matchup.


With striking the predominant factor, it is important to note that Caceres has a three-inch reach advantage against Figueroa. In the past Caceres has utilized this reach to average a busy 4.42 SLpM, and he does so at a 57 percent accuracy rate. Given that Figueroa lands just 3.26 strikes per minute at a 50 percent rate, Caceres should be able to deliver the same amount of punishment standing as he has in his past fights.



Additionally, Caceres absorbs less damage than Figueroa, receiving only 1.32 strikes per minute compared to Edwin's 2.5. With Caceres having the reach and skill set to best Figueroa in the striking game, consider Caceres a solid underdog at plus-130.


Insider Pick: Caceres
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MyScores.ca
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Diaz is worth the price of the PPV. He and his brother bring some mean-spirited charisma to the UFC.

While Diaz is favored, the public (57%) is leaning towards Condit (Source: SportsOptions).
 

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