Simple parlay that will cash at UFC 143

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Parlaying Nick Diaz (-225) and Josh Koscheck (-265). (basically even odds when parlayed)


It's weird to say, but Kos at -265 even gives you some value for a single bet. Pierce is not on his level and I was expecting at least a -300 stamped on Koscheck.


On the other hand, I feel like the juice Diaz carries is pretty steep. I was expecting Diaz to be around -175. That being said, I think he takes down Condit. Condit is a dangerous striker but Diaz has taken plenty of punishment in fights (see Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler) and nothing seems to fase him. I don't see him being knocked out. I think this fight will go close to the distance, and with Nick's un-humanlike cardio, I think he TKO's Condit late in round 4 or round 5. It seems as if everything that Condit is good at (striking, conditioning, strong chin) Nick is a little bit better in.




Anybody else have some picks for the big event tomorrow? Should be a great card.
 

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I think those are solid plays. What book are you using? Last I checked the lines were better.

The lines weird me out though. I like Nick to win, but -225 seems steep. Knowing that he opened up at even makes me not even want to bet it at this line. Really missed out there.

As for Kos. I was expecting -350 to -400. At -220 the line really weirds me out. Makes me kind of do a double take on it. I think he wins though. Pierce is tough, and could potentially out box him to a decision if Kos can't get a takedown. But I think Kos can get TDs based off of how much quicker he will be than Pierce. He also have very good cardio and should have the advantage if this goes to the 3rd.

I lean Roy Nelson at +135. Tough fight to call. I think they stay standing for the most part. Werdum can outpoint Roy. But it can all change real quick if Roy lands 1 good right hand. I don't see really where Werdum can finish the fight.

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I like Bruce LeRoy at + odds. He was impressive in his BW debut. Sort of figured he would have been favored.

Not a lot on this card. Big favorites that should win, but comes with too much juice for the caliber of fighter they are. Matt Brown, Ed Herman,...

Good Luck.
 

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Passing on The UFC Monster's picks from InterMatFight for UFC 143. These are fee picks and he is riding a hot streak. He has won money in 8 of his last 11 cards as documented on the site.
 

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I think those are solid plays. What book are you using? Last I checked the lines were better.

The lines weird me out though. I like Nick to win, but -225 seems steep. Knowing that he opened up at even makes me not even want to bet it at this line. Really missed out there.

As for Kos. I was expecting -350 to -400. At -220 the line really weirds me out. Makes me kind of do a double take on it. I think he wins though. Pierce is tough, and could potentially out box him to a decision if Kos can't get a takedown. But I think Kos can get TDs based off of how much quicker he will be than Pierce. He also have very good cardio and should have the advantage if this goes to the 3rd.

I lean Roy Nelson at +135. Tough fight to call. I think they stay standing for the most part. Werdum can outpoint Roy. But it can all change real quick if Roy lands 1 good right hand. I don't see really where Werdum can finish the fight.

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I like Bruce LeRoy at + odds. He was impressive in his BW debut. Sort of figured he would have been favored.

Not a lot on this card. Big favorites that should win, but comes with too much juice for the caliber of fighter they are. Matt Brown, Ed Herman,...

Good Luck.

I'm using Bovada ##)...wouldn't recommend it to anybody as there lines are about as bad as you can get. After march madness i'll be looking for another sportsbook.
 

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I guess the link was not included. Here they are from the site:

Let's lay $180 to win $100 on Nick Diaz to survive Condit's attacks.
Let's lay $105 to win $75 on Fabricio Werdum over Big Country.
Let's lay $144 to win $60 on Josh Koscheck to out-point Mike Pierce.
Let's lay $112 to win $50 on Barao's winning streak to continue.
Let's lay $25 to win $60 on a Clifford Starks upset.
Let's lay $140 to win $40 on Matt Riddle fighting off his pink slip.
Let's lay $74 to win $40 on Rafael Natal and his experience.
Let's lay $42 to win $30 on Edwin Figueroa to submit Alex Caseres.
Let's lay $84 to win $30 on Matt "The Immortal" Brown to roll.
Let's lay $90 to win $20 on a Dustin Poirier bridge-jump.
And, let's pass on newcomers, Stephen Thompson and Dan Stittgen.

A more detailed write up on these is on InterMatFight.
 

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not looking good for diaz..only a crooked judge wins him this
 

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Certainly have a strong opinion on the judges call here..but I'm not going to go too crazy considering I'm admittingly a big Diaz fan and may have a biased in that department, and to be honest I was on the good end of a shitty judges descision earlier on the card.
 

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Certainly have a strong opinion on the judges call here..but I'm not going to go too crazy considering I'm admittingly a big Diaz fan and may have a biased in that department, and to be honest I was on the good end of a shitty judges descision earlier on the card.

Classy Post.

I know many Diaz and even non Diaz bettors felt it was a bad decision. Not I, I think Condit clearly won the fight. Diaz did hardly anything except the late takedown. He was moving forward the 1st 2 rounds, but he didn't do any punching or damage. Come 3rd round he wasn't moving foward that much and he was on the receiving end of many more punches and kicks. Condit's dominance continued in the 4th round. Diaz needed to do something major in the 5th round because he was losing the fight. Up until the last minute he was losing the 5th round. A late takedown with less than a minute wasn't enough. He didn't even land any strikes when he had Condit down for close to a minute.

Anybody who thinks Diaz won the fight needs to watch it again. Condit is the man!
 

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Classy Post.

I know many Diaz and even non Diaz bettors felt it was a bad decision. Not I, I think Condit clearly won the fight. Diaz did hardly anything except the late takedown. He was moving forward the 1st 2 rounds, but he didn't do any punching or damage. Come 3rd round he wasn't moving foward that much and he was on the receiving end of many more punches and kicks. Condit's dominance continued in the 4th round. Diaz needed to do something major in the 5th round because he was losing the fight. Up until the last minute he was losing the 5th round. A late takedown with less than a minute wasn't enough. He didn't even land any strikes when he had Condit down for close to a minute.

Anybody who thinks Diaz won the fight needs to watch it again. Condit is the man!
I watched the fight 3 times now, and I see a 48-47 either way. Perhaps it really wasn't that close because as I mentioned before, I didn't just bet on Diaz, I'm a pretty big fan of his.

I'm hearing a ton of talk about a re-match, and while I'd love to see it, what the fuck is in it for Carlos? I highly doubt he gives a shit that some people are questioning his game plan/ saying he didn't really win. The fact of the matter is that he's the interim champ and has a huge fight with GSP coming up. Is it worth risking all of that just to shut up 35-40 percent of MMA fans? I think we all know the answer. Carlos' gameplan wasn't "badass" or "tough", but it was effective. Tons of people are on him for not living up to his nickname or being the finisher he's known as...he did what a fighter should do to win a fight IMO...whatever it takes. Had he stood and brawled with Diaz he probably wouldn't have the belt at this point.

All of this being said I do hope the two of them cross paths again. I'd love to see how Nick changes up his attack, because he was clearly caught off guard. But I have a feeling he'll have to work his way back to facing Carlos and not be given an immediate rematch. Again, I'd love to see it as a Diaz fan, but the UFC has fucked Carlos enough...I doubt they do it again.
 

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I watched the fight 3 times now, and I see a 48-47 either way. Perhaps it really wasn't that close because as I mentioned before, I didn't just bet on Diaz, I'm a pretty big fan of his.

I'm hearing a ton of talk about a re-match, and while I'd love to see it, what the fuck is in it for Carlos? I highly doubt he gives a shit that some people are questioning his game plan/ saying he didn't really win. The fact of the matter is that he's the interim champ and has a huge fight with GSP coming up. Is it worth risking all of that just to shut up 35-40 percent of MMA fans? I think we all know the answer. Carlos' gameplan wasn't "badass" or "tough", but it was effective. Tons of people are on him for not living up to his nickname or being the finisher he's known as...he did what a fighter should do to win a fight IMO...whatever it takes. Had he stood and brawled with Diaz he probably wouldn't have the belt at this point.

All of this being said I do hope the two of them cross paths again. I'd love to see how Nick changes up his attack, because he was clearly caught off guard. But I have a feeling he'll have to work his way back to facing Carlos and not be given an immediate rematch. Again, I'd love to see it as a Diaz fan, but the UFC has fucked Carlos enough...I doubt they do it again.

I agree Carlos would be in trouble if he stood toe to toe and slugged it out. But that's is why it's called MMA. I think Carlos demostrated he is a more skilled MMA fighter. Nick is definitely a more skilled brawler.


Speaking of rematches, I'd love to see Nick's little Bro give Cerrone a rematch. Nate's boxing, his accruaracy was unbelievable in that last fight. Cerrone got stung early and he had to deal with a sore mouth/jaw the rest of the fight. Also Nate's reach was really hard for Cerrone to deal with. In a rematch I will take Cerrone.
 

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I agree Carlos would be in trouble if he stood toe to toe and slugged it out. But that's is why it's called MMA. I think Carlos demostrated he is a more skilled MMA fighter. Nick is definitely a more skilled brawler.


Speaking of rematches, I'd love to see Nick's little Bro give Cerrone a rematch. Nate's boxing, his accruaracy was unbelievable in that last fight. Cerrone got stung early and he had to deal with a sore mouth/jaw the rest of the fight. Also Nate's reach was really hard for Cerrone to deal with. In a rematch I will take Cerrone.
And as I say everything about how Carlos would never do a rematch, the man steps up and does it. Wow. I really hope the UFC is finacially compensating him for this big time, because he just got fucked over again.


Can't wait for the rematch though.
 

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And as I say everything about how Carlos would never do a rematch, the man steps up and does it. Wow. I really hope the UFC is finacially compensating him for this big time, because he just got fucked over again.


Can't wait for the rematch though.

Watching Carlos and Nick's last fight, Joe Rogan made a good point. Nick has never fought anybody as tall a Condit. Tall fighters that have skill are tough to deal with.
Carlos is a winner, champion! Don't be surprised if he beats Nick again!

Speaking about height,

Just ask Donald Cerrone. Nate was taller than Donald and Nate had more reach.

Food for thought.
 

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