Early values for Super Bowl XLVII
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
2012 look-ahead package:
That was The Sports Boss, in a column I wrote about NFL futures last July, naming the 18-1 New York Giants as one of his best values on the preseason board. Kudos to you, Sports Boss, for being so prescient. Who cares if he also liked the New Orleans Saints (15-1), Minnesota Vikings (35-1) and New York Jets (14-1)? He had the right team at a good price and now, with the year over, he looks like he knew what he was talking about.
Futures are such an interesting bet because, when a team like the Giants wins, fans everywhere start thinking, "Oh man, the books must have gotten killed because such a long shot paid off." The truth is, not so much. Sure, they had to pay off a decent amount of bets at longish odds. But this year, think of how much that was balanced out by action on the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers and every other team in the league. Books only have to pay out on one team; they get to collect on all the rest.
This year, thanks to labor peace and tranquility, NFL futures were posted by the Las Vegas Hotel (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton) with confidence the Monday before the conference title games. "By now," Ed Salmons, one of the LVH bookmakers, told me, "every team has some form of action."
So, to the questions on every bettor's mind: Which teams are the best values for Super Bowl XLVII, and which futures have already been hit hardest?
The first team to get hit at the LVH was the San Francisco 49ers, who were posted at 20-1 to win next year's Super Bowl. The bet? $500. That's $10,000 in liability on that bet alone, excluding any other bets that have been taken, but it's not enough to make the LVH move its number on San Fran yet. In fact, the Niners have been one of the teams that has received the most action in the past few weeks, and the number remains at 20-1. The Pats, at 7-1, are up there in bet totals with the Niners, but their number hasn't moved, either.
In fact, the biggest movers so far have been the Giants, from 20-1 to 15-1 and the Houston Texans, who opened at 15-1 and are now 12-1. (Going in the opposite direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, from 12-1 to 15-1, the Broncos from 50-1 to 60-1 and the Buffalo Bills, from 50-1 to 100-1.)
No one should be surprised by the action on the Texans. From now until kickoff on Sept. 6, they will be the choice of every sharp, square and closeted gambler for future value. I guarantee that this will be the one season win total bookmakers have the hardest time making, like the Detroit Lions last season, because so many people will have an opinion on this team. When I asked the Sports Boss for his early Super Bowl XLVII values -- because why shouldn't lightning strike twice? -- this is the rundown he gave me:
Texans 15-1: "I had them at No. 1 in my performance ratings on the full regular season, even after Matt Schaub went down they hung on. Obviously that shows just how well they were playing when he was under center, as they were on pace to be the best team in the five years I have been running these numbers. They need a healthy Schaub and Andre Johnson to play 16 and look out for a few more tweaks to that roster -- although they were an extremely well-rounded team as no area really stands out as a weakness. Their weakest unit was the No. 9 passing offense, but that is on the full season."
Panthers 40-1: "I had them at No. 14 in my numbers, with a very weak defense more than offsetting the fourth-ranked offense. The offense will only continue to improve with Cam Newton and a solid rushing attack -- but they do need a lot of help personnel wise on defense. Tough division will hurt as well, but I do expect them to be better than Atlanta next season."
Cowboys 25-1: "I had them at No. 7 in my ratings, with about the same performance offensively and defensively. The real weakness was pass defense ranking, they were 20th or worse in every key pass defense stat. That caused their offense some grief as their rushing numbers weren't great. They will not have an easy schedule, but they did have five losses this year by four or less, or in overtime."
Jets 20-1: "I had them No. 12 overall. They faced a tough schedule this year and that will lighten next year. I think this year being humbled, and the fact the Giants won the Super Bowl will work in their favor. So will replacing Brian Schottenheimer with Tony Sparano as the offensive coordinator. He will run the ball often and well, getting them back to how they have won in the past."
So, here's the wild card everyone is asking about: How does Peyton Manning play into this? RJ Bell of pregame.com pointed out on Twitter that the Cal-Neva sports book was offering odds on where Peyton would sign. The Dolphins, Redskins, Colts and Jets were the leading contenders. And yet, those teams' future numbers hadn't really moved. The Dolphins are still hanging out in the 50-1 range. The Redskins are lingering at 100-1. And the Colts are only at 40-1.
Why? Because bookmakers won't move on air for futures; they just aren't that scared. If you have a hunch, take a shot.
There will still be 31 losers at the end of the season.
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
2012 look-ahead package:
Millman: Early Super Bowl XLVII values | Sprow: How Manning shifts the odds
numberFire: Projecting 2012 playoffs
numberFire: Projecting 2012 playoffs
Before "the drop" and "the catch" and "the phantom-D-on-the-touchdown" and "the proposal" and "the Gronk dancing shirtless" and all the other moments that made Super Bowl XLVI iconic, there was this small hint from a handicapper that the Giants were, at the least, on someone's radar: "I had them ranked one slot higher than the Jets at the end of last season, third-best performing team in the NFL (my order was Chargers, Steelers, Giants, Jets, Packers). They were the second-best offense, seventh-best defense. And when I ran my projected wins model for this year, they finished with the fifth-best record. Their only problem was INTs, but if they tighten things up …"That was The Sports Boss, in a column I wrote about NFL futures last July, naming the 18-1 New York Giants as one of his best values on the preseason board. Kudos to you, Sports Boss, for being so prescient. Who cares if he also liked the New Orleans Saints (15-1), Minnesota Vikings (35-1) and New York Jets (14-1)? He had the right team at a good price and now, with the year over, he looks like he knew what he was talking about.
Futures are such an interesting bet because, when a team like the Giants wins, fans everywhere start thinking, "Oh man, the books must have gotten killed because such a long shot paid off." The truth is, not so much. Sure, they had to pay off a decent amount of bets at longish odds. But this year, think of how much that was balanced out by action on the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers and every other team in the league. Books only have to pay out on one team; they get to collect on all the rest.
This year, thanks to labor peace and tranquility, NFL futures were posted by the Las Vegas Hotel (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton) with confidence the Monday before the conference title games. "By now," Ed Salmons, one of the LVH bookmakers, told me, "every team has some form of action."
So, to the questions on every bettor's mind: Which teams are the best values for Super Bowl XLVII, and which futures have already been hit hardest?
The first team to get hit at the LVH was the San Francisco 49ers, who were posted at 20-1 to win next year's Super Bowl. The bet? $500. That's $10,000 in liability on that bet alone, excluding any other bets that have been taken, but it's not enough to make the LVH move its number on San Fran yet. In fact, the Niners have been one of the teams that has received the most action in the past few weeks, and the number remains at 20-1. The Pats, at 7-1, are up there in bet totals with the Niners, but their number hasn't moved, either.
In fact, the biggest movers so far have been the Giants, from 20-1 to 15-1 and the Houston Texans, who opened at 15-1 and are now 12-1. (Going in the opposite direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, from 12-1 to 15-1, the Broncos from 50-1 to 60-1 and the Buffalo Bills, from 50-1 to 100-1.)
No one should be surprised by the action on the Texans. From now until kickoff on Sept. 6, they will be the choice of every sharp, square and closeted gambler for future value. I guarantee that this will be the one season win total bookmakers have the hardest time making, like the Detroit Lions last season, because so many people will have an opinion on this team. When I asked the Sports Boss for his early Super Bowl XLVII values -- because why shouldn't lightning strike twice? -- this is the rundown he gave me:
Texans 15-1: "I had them at No. 1 in my performance ratings on the full regular season, even after Matt Schaub went down they hung on. Obviously that shows just how well they were playing when he was under center, as they were on pace to be the best team in the five years I have been running these numbers. They need a healthy Schaub and Andre Johnson to play 16 and look out for a few more tweaks to that roster -- although they were an extremely well-rounded team as no area really stands out as a weakness. Their weakest unit was the No. 9 passing offense, but that is on the full season."
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So, here's the wild card everyone is asking about: How does Peyton Manning play into this? RJ Bell of pregame.com pointed out on Twitter that the Cal-Neva sports book was offering odds on where Peyton would sign. The Dolphins, Redskins, Colts and Jets were the leading contenders. And yet, those teams' future numbers hadn't really moved. The Dolphins are still hanging out in the 50-1 range. The Redskins are lingering at 100-1. And the Colts are only at 40-1.
Why? Because bookmakers won't move on air for futures; they just aren't that scared. If you have a hunch, take a shot.
There will still be 31 losers at the end of the season.
