College Basketball Sweat Barometer (ATS Success)

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College Basketball Sweat Barometer

By Jeff Gold/Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
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What is the Sweat Barometer?

The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first 15 Vegas-posted games this season, the Georgetown Hoyas went 7-1 against the spread and covered by a margin of 5.8 points. Generally, that would make the Hoyas a good bet. On the flip side, through the Pittsburgh Panthers' first 15 posted games, they were minus-6.94. That's bad.
The against-the-spread (ATS) margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.

Last night, I mentioned to Sweat Barometer contributor and professional handicapper Sal Selvaggio of MadduxSports.com that I wanted to write about New Mexico. The Lobos were riding a ridiculous seven-game ATS winning streak heading into last night's matchup against Colorado State and had risen to seventh in the sweat barometer (average margin of cover) standings.




"This is a total flat spot for New Mexico after beating San Diego State and UNLV," Selvaggio said. "And New Mexico already beat Colorado State by 30-plus so you know they'll want payback."




Selvaggio was right. Despite being a 5.5-point underdog, Colorado State beat New Mexico 71-63. The result served as a reminder: The sweat barometer is a guide but not an authority. It's a tool to use in conjunction with many other factors, including motivation, when handicapping a game.




Last night's result notwithstanding, New Mexico has been a tremendous play for bettors this season. Since Alford has arrived, New Mexico is 90-58-5 ATS -- an absolutely unconscious 60.8 percent.




"I think being in a mid-major conference has really served Alford well," Selvaggio said. "He tends to beat up on lesser teams as evidenced by a 70-38 mark against the spread as a favorite."




When Alford was coaching Iowa in the Big 10, he was coaching a team in the middle of the pack and not one of the conference's powers. At New Mexico, Alford has a team that is near the top of just about every significant statistic in the Mountain West. He has the second-ranked scoring offense, second-ranked scoring defense, top-ranked field goal percentage defense, and his squad has the best rebounding margin in the conference.




In all eight of New Mexico's conference wins, the Lobos have won by double digits. So, if it's a good spot for New Mexico, don't hesitate to lay some serious wood.




Let's turn to this week's sweat barometer.





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Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>ATS/H</th><th>ATS/A</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>South Dakota State Jackrabbits</td><td>22-7-0</td><td>15-5-1</td><td>7-1-0</td><td>7-4-0</td><td>7.1</td><td>-5.24</td><td>61</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michigan State Spartans (6)</td><td>21-5-0</td><td>18-6-0</td><td>11-2-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>5.63</td><td>-7.17</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Texas Mean Green</td><td>15-12-0</td><td>16-4-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>9-1-0</td><td>5.6</td><td>0.9</td><td>215</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Montana Grizzlies</td><td>20-6-0</td><td>15-5-1</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>8-2-1</td><td>4.9</td><td>-5.14</td><td>98</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa State Cyclones</td><td>19-8-0</td><td>14-8-1</td><td>7-5-0</td><td>5-3-1</td><td>4.5</td><td>-1.41</td><td>41</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Mexico Lobos (18)</td><td>22-4-0</td><td>17-5-1</td><td>7-3-1</td><td>8-1-0</td><td>4.28</td><td>-8.8</td><td>27</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Delaware Fightin Blue Hens</td><td>15-12-0</td><td>14-6-2</td><td>8-3-1</td><td>6-3-1</td><td>4.23</td><td>3.27</td><td>141</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Manhattan Jaspers</td><td>19-10-0</td><td>19-8-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>11-4-0</td><td>4.02</td><td>-0.65</td><td>131</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Akron Zips</td><td>19-8-0</td><td>15-8-0</td><td>9-0-0</td><td>6-7-0</td><td>3.93</td><td>-1.41</td><td>63</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Loyola Marymount Lions</td><td>17-10-0</td><td>16-9-0</td><td>7-7-0</td><td>9-2-0</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.42</td><td>89</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UTEP Miners</td><td>13-13-0</td><td>13-9-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>3.59</td><td>2.55</td><td>148</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans</td><td>13-14-0</td><td>18-6-0</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>11-3-0</td><td>3.58</td><td>5.42</td><td>164</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>La Salle Explorers</td><td>18-9-0</td><td>13-7-1</td><td>7-2-1</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>3.38</td><td>-1.57</td><td>73</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Providence Friars</td><td>13-15-0</td><td>9-11-0</td><td>4-6-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>3.38</td><td>5.58</td><td>167</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Missouri Tigers (3)</td><td>24-2-0</td><td>14-8-0</td><td>9-3-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>3.34</td><td>-9.75</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>California Golden Bears</td><td>22-6-0</td><td>17-8-0</td><td>11-5-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>3.26</td><td>-9.1</td><td>30</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Colorado Buffaloes</td><td>18-8-0</td><td>12-10-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>3.23</td><td>-0.59</td><td>76</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders</td><td>24-4-0</td><td>15-9-1</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>8-3-1</td><td>3.14</td><td>-6.58</td><td>35</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida State Seminoles (15)</td><td>19-7-0</td><td>13-10-1</td><td>8-5-0</td><td>4-4-0</td><td>3.04</td><td>-5.96</td><td>18</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wichita State Shockers (19)</td><td>23-4-0</td><td>12-12-1</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>6-3-1</td><td>2.92</td><td>-9.16</td><td>15</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgetown Hoyas (9)</td><td>20-5-0</td><td>12-8-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>2.9</td><td>-5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Memphis Tigers</td><td>19-8-0</td><td>10-14-0</td><td>6-6-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>2.9</td><td>-5.52</td><td>26</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Seton Hall Pirates</td><td>18-9-0</td><td>15-8-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>2.89</td><td>-0.93</td><td>37</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Georgia Southern Eagles</td><td>14-12-0</td><td>14-9-0</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>8-6-0</td><td>2.87</td><td>4.57</td><td>195</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Oregon Ducks</td><td>19-8-0</td><td>13-11-0</td><td>5-8-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>2.85</td><td>-0.19</td><td>56</td></tr></tbody></table>

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Remaining AP Top 25

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 120px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Michigan Wolverines (11)</td><td>20-7-0</td><td>14-9-0</td><td>8-3-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>2.8</td><td>-2.37</td><td>13</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia Cavaliers (25)</td><td>20-6-0</td><td>13-8-0</td><td>5-5-0</td><td>6-2-0</td><td>2.38</td><td>-5.76</td><td>42</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20)</td><td>18-8-0</td><td>10-10-1</td><td>5-3-1</td><td>5-6-0</td><td>2.19</td><td>1.38</td><td>38</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Murray State Racers (14)</td><td>26-1-0</td><td>10-11-1</td><td>3-6-1</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>1.68</td><td>-9.09</td><td>36</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kansas Jayhawks (4)</td><td>21-5-0</td><td>13-11-0</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>5-2-0</td><td>1.54</td><td>-9.96</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Temple Owls (22)</td><td>21-5-0</td><td>16-10-0</td><td>8-4-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>1.52</td><td>-5.52</td><td>16</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Syracuse Orange (2)</td><td>27-1-0</td><td>15-11-1</td><td>9-9-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>1.2</td><td>-13.76</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Indiana Hoosiers (23)</td><td>18-7-0</td><td>11-8-1</td><td>7-3-0</td><td>4-5-1</td><td>1.13</td><td>-3.08</td><td>19</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State Buckeyes (8)</td><td>21-5-0</td><td>12-10-0</td><td>8-5-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td>0.91</td><td>-13.27</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Kentucky Wildcats (1)</td><td>25-1-0</td><td>10-15-0</td><td>4-11-0</td><td>4-3-0</td><td>0.62</td><td>-16.78</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor Bears(13)</td><td>21-5-0</td><td>8-10-1</td><td>2-6-0</td><td>5-4-1</td><td>0.32</td><td>-3.75</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>San Diego State Aztecs (24)</td><td>20-6-0</td><td>9-12-0</td><td>4-8-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>-0.07</td><td>-3.64</td><td>33</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marquette Golden Eagles (10)</td><td>22-5-0</td><td>13-10-1</td><td>4-6-1</td><td>7-2-0</td><td>-0.13</td><td>-7.88</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin Badgers (16)</td><td>20-7-0</td><td>12-11-0</td><td>5-7-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-8.5</td><td>23</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Gators(12)</td><td>20-6-0</td><td>12-10-0</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>5-4-0</td><td>-0.55</td><td>-9</td><td>17</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>North Carolina Tar Heels (7)</td><td>19-4-0</td><td>12-11-0</td><td>7-6-0</td><td>3-5-0</td><td>-0.78</td><td>-14.17</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Louisville Cardinals (17)</td><td>21-6-0</td><td>14-9-1</td><td>8-6-1</td><td>6-3-0</td><td>-1.04</td><td>-8.29</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>UNLV Rebels (21)</td><td>20-6-0</td><td>8-14-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>2-9-0</td><td>-1.2</td><td>-8.11</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke Blue Devils (5)</td><td>22-4-0</td><td>11-15-0</td><td>4-9-0</td><td>5-3-0</td><td>-1.96</td><td>-11.77</td><td>2</td></tr></tbody></table>

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SB Bottom 5

<table><thead><tr><th style="width: 100px;">Team (AP Rank)</th><th>SU</th><th>ATS</th><th>Home ATS</th><th>Away ATS</th><th>SB</th><th>Closing Line</th><th>RPI</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>USC Trojans</td><td>6-21-0</td><td>9-16-0</td><td>2-11-0</td><td>6-5-0</td><td>-4.5</td><td>1.58</td><td>241</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Santa Clara Broncos</td><td>8-19-0</td><td>8-16-0</td><td>3-9-0</td><td>3-6-0</td><td>-4.52</td><td>3.94</td><td>272</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>St. Peter's Peacocks</td><td>5-23-0</td><td>8-14-0</td><td>1-8-0</td><td>5-6-0</td><td>-5.61</td><td>5.8</td><td>295</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh Panthers</td><td>15-13-0</td><td>9-14-0</td><td>3-9-0</td><td>6-4-0</td><td>-6.43</td><td>-4.96</td><td>93</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Northern Arizona Lumberjacks</td><td>4-22-0</td><td>4-18-1</td><td>1-9-1</td><td>3-7-0</td><td>-6.98</td><td>6.41</td><td>336</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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