Edgar has the edge over Henderson
Bader and Cantwell also good value bets for UFC 144
By John Candido
FightMetric
In the UFC's return to Japan, fans will be treated to a stacked main card consisting of seven big name fights. Featured will be one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in MMA, Frankie Edgar, defending his lightweight title against a similarly well-rounded contender in Benson Henderson. Also featured on the card will be nearly the entire stable of Japanese UFC fighters, who will finally enjoy the home-field advantage they have missed since joining the American promotion. With so many intangibles in play, we'll take a look at the stats behind the fights to see where the real value will be at Saitama Super Arena on Saturday.
<center>Quinton Jackson (minus-250) vs. Ryan Bader (+210)
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Light heavyweight (205 pounds): Though Quinton "Rampage" Jackson isn't a native of Japan, this will be somewhat of a return home for him since he spent the majority of his career making a name for himself in the Pride Fighting Championship organization. While Rampage will be looking to return to his winning ways after losing his title shot to Jon Jones, the younger Ryan Bader will be looking to put himself back into the top of the light heavyweight division rankings. Though both have had Jon Jones-related setbacks in their quest for the belt, neither fighter is a gatekeeper or an easy win. Rampage hasn't been knocked out since coming to the UFC in 2007 and Bader has never been knocked out in his entire MMA career.
With Rampage as the heavy favorite at minus-250 and neither fighter likely to get knocked out, there is a good chance that the second billed fight of the night will also end in a decision. Given that Jackson isn't exactly known for point fighting, it's not inconceivable that Bader will be able to outwork Jackson on the scorecards the way Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans did. For one, Bader has great strike defense, successfully avoiding a very high 76.1 percent of attempts -- the second-highest total in UFC history. Second, Bader lands 3.33 takedowns per minute compared to Rampage who lands just 1.69. While Rampage does have a very good 80 percent takedown defense, it only takes one key takedown by the former Arizona State All-American wrestler to win a round in a fight as close as this one. Given more than 2-1 odds, and with youth being on his side, the value will obviously be with Bader in this one at plus-210.
Insider pick: Bader
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<center>MAIN EVENT: FIVE ROUNDS
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<center>Frankie Edgar (minus-130) vs. Ben Henderson (+110)
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Lightweight (155 pounds): Both Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson have had their share of lengthy battles. All four of Edgar's title fights have gone into the championship rounds, making him something of a statistical anomaly; he is one of just three fighters in UFC history whose average fight time is longer than 15 minutes. Henderson's last four matches have all gone the distance as well. Though both fighters are very similar statistically, the key difference, in this fight, will likely be the challenges that Henderson has had facing opponents with skill sets similar to Edgar's.
The lightweight champion is favored in this fight because he should have a clear advantage in the striking game against Henderson. On average, he lands more strikes than Benson -- 3.49 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) compared to 2.45 -- and successfully defends a greater percentage of strikes, 74 percent compared to 63 percent. In fact, Edgar's striking defense percentage is the highest by any lightweight in UFC history.
Given that Edgar has outworked opponents with better striking than Henderson in the past, it's not a stretch to think that he could easily win a decision based simply on greater production. Therefore, Henderson's chance of winning this fight will be in controlling Edgar with his takedown and grappling skills, which the stats would show are superior to Frankie's. What's significant is that "Bendo" has not done well in this area when facing opponents with a high level of takedown defense. Against Clay Guida, who has a takedown defense of 63 percent, Benson just completed 29 percent of his takedowns, and against Anthony Pettis, who has a takedown defense of 65 percent, Henderson landed just 30 percent of his takedowns.
With Edgar defending 62 percent of takedowns, it should prove to be enough for him to take away Henderson's key strength and for "The Answer" to outwork Bendo as he has against previous contenders. Given the close-to-even odds at minus-130, the stats suggest that Edgar is a stronger favorite than he's being given credit for.
Insider pick: Edgar
<center>Cheick Kongo (minus-325) vs. Mark Hunt (+250)
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Heavyweight (265 pounds): After a six-fight losing streak, Mark Hunt made an impressive return to the win column with a knockout of the night victory against Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 127. Before this fight, Tuchscherer had never been knocked out in his 26-fight career. Hunt is no stranger to knocking out opponents, with 67 percent of his MMA victories coming by either KO or TKO, not to mention an extensive list of kickboxing knockouts in the K-1 organization. At UFC 144, he'll be taking on a very tough opponent in Cheick Kongo, who himself has never been knocked out in his MMA career. However, as a huge minus-325 favorite, Kongo might not exactly be the lock against Hunt the betting public thinks he is.
Given that Hunt has the ability to take opponents out with one shot and that the heavyweight division, in general, is more prone to KOs, thinking that Hunt might have a puncher's chance in this fight isn't so farfetched. This is especially true because Hunt's stats aren't that much technically worse than Kongo's. Striking, Hunt averages a very close strikes landed per minute (SLpM) to Kongo at 3.52 with Kongo landing a slightly higher 3.65. And the striking defense category, Kongo is not hugely better, absorbing 1.44 strikes per minute (SApM) compared to Hunt, who takes 1.85 strikes per minute on average.
If Kongo does decide to take the fight to the ground in an attempt to score points on the judges' cards, Hunt has a very high 70 percent takedown defense which should allow him to keep off of his back. And furthermore, nearly all of Hunt's losses (6 out of 7) have come via submission, which bodes well in his favor, since Kongo has never won a fight via submission in his UFC career. With technical numbers that are not much different and the power of Hunt to end the fight with one shot, it'd be really hard to feel good about laying minus-325 on Kongo as the favorite in this one. All things considered, "The Super Samoan" is a decent value here at plus-250.
Insider pick: Hunt
<center>Anthony Pettis (-270) vs. Joe Lauzon (+210)
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Lightweight (155 pounds): The fact that Anthony Pettis has never been finished in a fight and that Joe Lauzon has never won a fight via decision makes it easy to understand why Pettis is considered a pretty heavy favorite at minus-270. However, there are some key questions surrounding these fighters that add to the lack of predictability in this bout.
One point of uncertainty is how successful WEC fighters will continue to be against fighters who have extensive experience fighting at a UFC level of competition. Lauzon, who has been successful in the UFC since 2006, is 8-3 since making his debut in the organization. Though Pettis was also considered a favorite against longtime contender Guida, Guida was able to negate Pettis' obvious talents and win a unanimous decision victory against him. Lauzon also has a very aggressive wrestling game, and it's not out of the question that Lauzon could employ the same strategy against Pettis. However, Pettis does have a good takedown defense of 65 percent and a history of success landing submissions off of his back, having won three fights via triangle choke from the bottom. With a case that could be made for either fighter, the best bet is probably neither of these men.
Insider pick: Stay away
<center>Riki Fukuda (-290) vs. Steve Cantwell (+210)
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Light heavyweight (205 pounds): Steve Cantwell enters this event coming off a four-fight losing streak in the UFC. He will also be fighting a prominent Japanese fighter, Riki Fukuda, in his home country. These facts don't exactly tell the whole story going into this fight. Though Cantwell has lost four in a row, they have all come by decision, and they have all been in the UFC. Compare this to Fukuda, who has only had one fight in the UFC in which he lost, via a controversial unanimous decision to Nick Ring. While Fukuda has an impressive MMA record preceding this fight, most of these victories were compiled in lesser-known promotions. In addition, Cantwell has never been submitted, and has only been knocked out once by Brian Stann, whom he later defeated by TKO to take the last ever WEC light heavyweight title.
Since Fukuda's success has mostly come from taking opponents down and attacking them with strikes from the top position, his strategy will be a challenge to execute against Cantwell, who has stellar takedown defense and avoids 90 percent of the attempts against him -- a number amassed against high-level UFC and WEC competition. And since Cantwell has a decent chance of keeping this fight standing, it should be noted that historically he outstrikes Fukuda, landing 3.73 strikes per minute at a 35 percent accuracy rate compared to Riki's 2.0 SLpM at a 29 percent striking accuracy. Add to this the fact that Cantwell is six years younger than Fukuda and you can see why he's good deal at plus-210.
Insider pick: Steve Cantwell
Bader and Cantwell also good value bets for UFC 144
By John Candido
FightMetric
In the UFC's return to Japan, fans will be treated to a stacked main card consisting of seven big name fights. Featured will be one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in MMA, Frankie Edgar, defending his lightweight title against a similarly well-rounded contender in Benson Henderson. Also featured on the card will be nearly the entire stable of Japanese UFC fighters, who will finally enjoy the home-field advantage they have missed since joining the American promotion. With so many intangibles in play, we'll take a look at the stats behind the fights to see where the real value will be at Saitama Super Arena on Saturday.
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<center>Quinton Jackson (minus-250) vs. Ryan Bader (+210)
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Light heavyweight (205 pounds): Though Quinton "Rampage" Jackson isn't a native of Japan, this will be somewhat of a return home for him since he spent the majority of his career making a name for himself in the Pride Fighting Championship organization. While Rampage will be looking to return to his winning ways after losing his title shot to Jon Jones, the younger Ryan Bader will be looking to put himself back into the top of the light heavyweight division rankings. Though both have had Jon Jones-related setbacks in their quest for the belt, neither fighter is a gatekeeper or an easy win. Rampage hasn't been knocked out since coming to the UFC in 2007 and Bader has never been knocked out in his entire MMA career.
With Rampage as the heavy favorite at minus-250 and neither fighter likely to get knocked out, there is a good chance that the second billed fight of the night will also end in a decision. Given that Jackson isn't exactly known for point fighting, it's not inconceivable that Bader will be able to outwork Jackson on the scorecards the way Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans did. For one, Bader has great strike defense, successfully avoiding a very high 76.1 percent of attempts -- the second-highest total in UFC history. Second, Bader lands 3.33 takedowns per minute compared to Rampage who lands just 1.69. While Rampage does have a very good 80 percent takedown defense, it only takes one key takedown by the former Arizona State All-American wrestler to win a round in a fight as close as this one. Given more than 2-1 odds, and with youth being on his side, the value will obviously be with Bader in this one at plus-210.
Insider pick: Bader
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<center>MAIN EVENT: FIVE ROUNDS
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<center>Frankie Edgar (minus-130) vs. Ben Henderson (+110)
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Lightweight (155 pounds): Both Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson have had their share of lengthy battles. All four of Edgar's title fights have gone into the championship rounds, making him something of a statistical anomaly; he is one of just three fighters in UFC history whose average fight time is longer than 15 minutes. Henderson's last four matches have all gone the distance as well. Though both fighters are very similar statistically, the key difference, in this fight, will likely be the challenges that Henderson has had facing opponents with skill sets similar to Edgar's.
The lightweight champion is favored in this fight because he should have a clear advantage in the striking game against Henderson. On average, he lands more strikes than Benson -- 3.49 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) compared to 2.45 -- and successfully defends a greater percentage of strikes, 74 percent compared to 63 percent. In fact, Edgar's striking defense percentage is the highest by any lightweight in UFC history.
Given that Edgar has outworked opponents with better striking than Henderson in the past, it's not a stretch to think that he could easily win a decision based simply on greater production. Therefore, Henderson's chance of winning this fight will be in controlling Edgar with his takedown and grappling skills, which the stats would show are superior to Frankie's. What's significant is that "Bendo" has not done well in this area when facing opponents with a high level of takedown defense. Against Clay Guida, who has a takedown defense of 63 percent, Benson just completed 29 percent of his takedowns, and against Anthony Pettis, who has a takedown defense of 65 percent, Henderson landed just 30 percent of his takedowns.
With Edgar defending 62 percent of takedowns, it should prove to be enough for him to take away Henderson's key strength and for "The Answer" to outwork Bendo as he has against previous contenders. Given the close-to-even odds at minus-130, the stats suggest that Edgar is a stronger favorite than he's being given credit for.
Insider pick: Edgar
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<center>Cheick Kongo (minus-325) vs. Mark Hunt (+250)
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Heavyweight (265 pounds): After a six-fight losing streak, Mark Hunt made an impressive return to the win column with a knockout of the night victory against Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 127. Before this fight, Tuchscherer had never been knocked out in his 26-fight career. Hunt is no stranger to knocking out opponents, with 67 percent of his MMA victories coming by either KO or TKO, not to mention an extensive list of kickboxing knockouts in the K-1 organization. At UFC 144, he'll be taking on a very tough opponent in Cheick Kongo, who himself has never been knocked out in his MMA career. However, as a huge minus-325 favorite, Kongo might not exactly be the lock against Hunt the betting public thinks he is.
Given that Hunt has the ability to take opponents out with one shot and that the heavyweight division, in general, is more prone to KOs, thinking that Hunt might have a puncher's chance in this fight isn't so farfetched. This is especially true because Hunt's stats aren't that much technically worse than Kongo's. Striking, Hunt averages a very close strikes landed per minute (SLpM) to Kongo at 3.52 with Kongo landing a slightly higher 3.65. And the striking defense category, Kongo is not hugely better, absorbing 1.44 strikes per minute (SApM) compared to Hunt, who takes 1.85 strikes per minute on average.
If Kongo does decide to take the fight to the ground in an attempt to score points on the judges' cards, Hunt has a very high 70 percent takedown defense which should allow him to keep off of his back. And furthermore, nearly all of Hunt's losses (6 out of 7) have come via submission, which bodes well in his favor, since Kongo has never won a fight via submission in his UFC career. With technical numbers that are not much different and the power of Hunt to end the fight with one shot, it'd be really hard to feel good about laying minus-325 on Kongo as the favorite in this one. All things considered, "The Super Samoan" is a decent value here at plus-250.
Insider pick: Hunt
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<center>Anthony Pettis (-270) vs. Joe Lauzon (+210)
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Lightweight (155 pounds): The fact that Anthony Pettis has never been finished in a fight and that Joe Lauzon has never won a fight via decision makes it easy to understand why Pettis is considered a pretty heavy favorite at minus-270. However, there are some key questions surrounding these fighters that add to the lack of predictability in this bout.
One point of uncertainty is how successful WEC fighters will continue to be against fighters who have extensive experience fighting at a UFC level of competition. Lauzon, who has been successful in the UFC since 2006, is 8-3 since making his debut in the organization. Though Pettis was also considered a favorite against longtime contender Guida, Guida was able to negate Pettis' obvious talents and win a unanimous decision victory against him. Lauzon also has a very aggressive wrestling game, and it's not out of the question that Lauzon could employ the same strategy against Pettis. However, Pettis does have a good takedown defense of 65 percent and a history of success landing submissions off of his back, having won three fights via triangle choke from the bottom. With a case that could be made for either fighter, the best bet is probably neither of these men.
Insider pick: Stay away
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<center>Riki Fukuda (-290) vs. Steve Cantwell (+210)
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Light heavyweight (205 pounds): Steve Cantwell enters this event coming off a four-fight losing streak in the UFC. He will also be fighting a prominent Japanese fighter, Riki Fukuda, in his home country. These facts don't exactly tell the whole story going into this fight. Though Cantwell has lost four in a row, they have all come by decision, and they have all been in the UFC. Compare this to Fukuda, who has only had one fight in the UFC in which he lost, via a controversial unanimous decision to Nick Ring. While Fukuda has an impressive MMA record preceding this fight, most of these victories were compiled in lesser-known promotions. In addition, Cantwell has never been submitted, and has only been knocked out once by Brian Stann, whom he later defeated by TKO to take the last ever WEC light heavyweight title.
Since Fukuda's success has mostly come from taking opponents down and attacking them with strikes from the top position, his strategy will be a challenge to execute against Cantwell, who has stellar takedown defense and avoids 90 percent of the attempts against him -- a number amassed against high-level UFC and WEC competition. And since Cantwell has a decent chance of keeping this fight standing, it should be noted that historically he outstrikes Fukuda, landing 3.73 strikes per minute at a 35 percent accuracy rate compared to Riki's 2.0 SLpM at a 29 percent striking accuracy. Add to this the fact that Cantwell is six years younger than Fukuda and you can see why he's good deal at plus-210.
Insider pick: Steve Cantwell
