Let's see if this guy ends up being right.........
Why Dwight Howard will stay
Here are five reasons why D-12 will finish the season with Orlando
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
The trade deadline is around the corner and Dwight Howard is still a member of the Orlando Magic. His trade request made in training camp still stands on the table, but as we inch toward the 11th hour, the chances that he remains in black-and-blue for the rest of the season still seem better than the alternative.
For Magic fans, hoping for one last run with their franchise player isn't just wishful thinking. A Howard departure seems unlikely at this stage in the game, and there's no reason to sell (or soak with gasoline) your No. 12 jerseys.
Why? Let's count the reasons.
1. Brook Lopez is hurt
It's been long known that, along with the Dallas Mavericks, the New Jersey Nets are the apple of Howard's eye. With charismatic Russian owner Mikhail Prokhorov, a brand-new arena and most of all, the New York City lights, the Brooklyn … err … New Jersey Nets have plenty to offer. Oh, and the on-court possibility of catching alley-oops from Deron Williams? That's appealing, too.
But if the Nets want Howard now, they would only have damaged goods to offer. Lopez, out with a fractured foot for the foreseeable future, is the biggest chip that the Nets could offer Orlando GM Otis Smith. Unfortunately, Lopez would have to pass a physical in order to be eligible for a trade and it's unlikely that a general manager would deal for a 7-footer unless he knew that he was healthy.
<offer></offer>
Dealing the franchise player is tough enough on the fans. But dealing him for a player who can't even play upon arrival? Let's just say Lopez's injury is not making Smith's job any easier.
2. This isn't Melo-drama
It's easy to make the case that this trade demand is similar to the one we witnessed in Denver last season with Carmelo Anthony, but be careful with drawing that comparison. When Anthony made his plea to go to the New York Knicks last season, he picked a team that was stacked with available, young, starter-quality players. That isn't the case with the Nets or Mavericks.
If Howard was infatuated with a team not named the Nets or Mavericks, there might be a deal on the table that could be amenable for both teams. But the preferred destinations aren't giving Smith much to work with. The Mavericks have solid players outside of Dirk Nowitzki, but they're all grey-haired in NBA terms. Not exactly a recipe for a team in rebuild or "retool" mode. Ironically, if Howard had a soft spot for Denver, then a deal might be done by now.
3. The Orlando Magic are really good
Lost in all this trade chatter is that the Magic are actually one of the best teams in the NBA. Only the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder have more wins at this point, but you wouldn't know it because Howard's trade demand has put an artificial stink on the team. (Also, that baffling drubbing by the Celtics on national TV didn't help their rep). But thanks to the ascension of Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick this season, they're no longer destined to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the East.
Quietly, the Magic have begun to separate themselves in the conference, earning a two-game cushion in the standings ahead of the braking 76ers. Now they look like they're digging themselves into the third seed without hitting anywhere near their potential.
If Howard keys in on defense like we know he can, don't expect the Magic to stay down in the defensive efficiency ranks for long. As a team that relies on a 3-point assault, the Magic are a streaky team by design and they've proved that they can take down the Heat and Bulls when they're hot.
If Howard wants to win, he may not be able to find a better environment than his current one. What if the Magic hit the lottery and upset the Bulls or Heat on the way to the Finals, like they did in 2008-09? Don't count the Magic out.
4. Ryan Anderson is really good
Word is that the Magic are heavily shopping their players in order to strike a last-minute deal. The idea is that if Smith can bring in the right crop of players, he could appease Howard and convince him to stay long-term.
Luckily for Smith, Anderson is one of the league's biggest bargains in terms of bang for buck. The 23-year-old stretch 4 has one of the league's most unique stat lines outside of Kevin Love. Anderson owns the NBA's seventh-best offensive rebound rate, the most 3-point field goals to date and the second-lowest turnover rate in the league. All for just $2.2 million this season.
All told, Anderson has posted a top-20 player efficiency rating, providing the rare blend of youth, efficiency and uniqueness that teams will surely covet. Under normal circumstances, a player of Anderson's immense value would be seen as a general manager's most prized possessions.
But this isn't normal circumstances. If dealing Anderson means being able to keep a perennial MVP candidate in house for the long haul, Smith will be tempted to part with his youngster. Sending Anderson away might be not be the best move for the Magic's chances this season, but if it means making Howard happy, the end might justify the means for Smith.
5. The trade demand backfired
Howard wants to have his cake and eat it, too. He signed the contract to stay with the Orlando Magic back in 2007 and now he has to live up to his contractual obligations. So Smith could just stand pat at the deadline and not be known as the executive who traded away the franchise player for 50 cents on the dollar just because Howard threw a fit. Howard wants to control his destiny, but he should have thought about that before he signed the deal in the first place.
By issuing a trade demand, Howard was essentially driving down his price in a deal. Knowing that the Magic had their backs against the wall, Howard understood that a trade demand would lubricate the trade negotiations and get the ball rolling. But it might have backfired; Smith might not see the proposed offers as reasonable value.
After sticking with the same franchise since he entered the league as a teenager, Howard probably sees the allure of being pursued by the league much in the same way that LeBron James (and Dwyane Wade … and Chris Bosh …) sought professional control after being with the same franchise for so long. If the deals aren't up to snuff, Howard will have to wait for his moment of power.
Why Dwight Howard will stay
Here are five reasons why D-12 will finish the season with Orlando
By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
The trade deadline is around the corner and Dwight Howard is still a member of the Orlando Magic. His trade request made in training camp still stands on the table, but as we inch toward the 11th hour, the chances that he remains in black-and-blue for the rest of the season still seem better than the alternative.
For Magic fans, hoping for one last run with their franchise player isn't just wishful thinking. A Howard departure seems unlikely at this stage in the game, and there's no reason to sell (or soak with gasoline) your No. 12 jerseys.
Why? Let's count the reasons.
1. Brook Lopez is hurt
It's been long known that, along with the Dallas Mavericks, the New Jersey Nets are the apple of Howard's eye. With charismatic Russian owner Mikhail Prokhorov, a brand-new arena and most of all, the New York City lights, the Brooklyn … err … New Jersey Nets have plenty to offer. Oh, and the on-court possibility of catching alley-oops from Deron Williams? That's appealing, too.
But if the Nets want Howard now, they would only have damaged goods to offer. Lopez, out with a fractured foot for the foreseeable future, is the biggest chip that the Nets could offer Orlando GM Otis Smith. Unfortunately, Lopez would have to pass a physical in order to be eligible for a trade and it's unlikely that a general manager would deal for a 7-footer unless he knew that he was healthy.
<offer></offer>
Dealing the franchise player is tough enough on the fans. But dealing him for a player who can't even play upon arrival? Let's just say Lopez's injury is not making Smith's job any easier.
2. This isn't Melo-drama
It's easy to make the case that this trade demand is similar to the one we witnessed in Denver last season with Carmelo Anthony, but be careful with drawing that comparison. When Anthony made his plea to go to the New York Knicks last season, he picked a team that was stacked with available, young, starter-quality players. That isn't the case with the Nets or Mavericks.
If Howard was infatuated with a team not named the Nets or Mavericks, there might be a deal on the table that could be amenable for both teams. But the preferred destinations aren't giving Smith much to work with. The Mavericks have solid players outside of Dirk Nowitzki, but they're all grey-haired in NBA terms. Not exactly a recipe for a team in rebuild or "retool" mode. Ironically, if Howard had a soft spot for Denver, then a deal might be done by now.
3. The Orlando Magic are really good
Lost in all this trade chatter is that the Magic are actually one of the best teams in the NBA. Only the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder have more wins at this point, but you wouldn't know it because Howard's trade demand has put an artificial stink on the team. (Also, that baffling drubbing by the Celtics on national TV didn't help their rep). But thanks to the ascension of Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick this season, they're no longer destined to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the East.
Quietly, the Magic have begun to separate themselves in the conference, earning a two-game cushion in the standings ahead of the braking 76ers. Now they look like they're digging themselves into the third seed without hitting anywhere near their potential.
If Howard keys in on defense like we know he can, don't expect the Magic to stay down in the defensive efficiency ranks for long. As a team that relies on a 3-point assault, the Magic are a streaky team by design and they've proved that they can take down the Heat and Bulls when they're hot.
If Howard wants to win, he may not be able to find a better environment than his current one. What if the Magic hit the lottery and upset the Bulls or Heat on the way to the Finals, like they did in 2008-09? Don't count the Magic out.
4. Ryan Anderson is really good
Word is that the Magic are heavily shopping their players in order to strike a last-minute deal. The idea is that if Smith can bring in the right crop of players, he could appease Howard and convince him to stay long-term.
Luckily for Smith, Anderson is one of the league's biggest bargains in terms of bang for buck. The 23-year-old stretch 4 has one of the league's most unique stat lines outside of Kevin Love. Anderson owns the NBA's seventh-best offensive rebound rate, the most 3-point field goals to date and the second-lowest turnover rate in the league. All for just $2.2 million this season.
All told, Anderson has posted a top-20 player efficiency rating, providing the rare blend of youth, efficiency and uniqueness that teams will surely covet. Under normal circumstances, a player of Anderson's immense value would be seen as a general manager's most prized possessions.
But this isn't normal circumstances. If dealing Anderson means being able to keep a perennial MVP candidate in house for the long haul, Smith will be tempted to part with his youngster. Sending Anderson away might be not be the best move for the Magic's chances this season, but if it means making Howard happy, the end might justify the means for Smith.
5. The trade demand backfired
Howard wants to have his cake and eat it, too. He signed the contract to stay with the Orlando Magic back in 2007 and now he has to live up to his contractual obligations. So Smith could just stand pat at the deadline and not be known as the executive who traded away the franchise player for 50 cents on the dollar just because Howard threw a fit. Howard wants to control his destiny, but he should have thought about that before he signed the deal in the first place.
By issuing a trade demand, Howard was essentially driving down his price in a deal. Knowing that the Magic had their backs against the wall, Howard understood that a trade demand would lubricate the trade negotiations and get the ball rolling. But it might have backfired; Smith might not see the proposed offers as reasonable value.
After sticking with the same franchise since he entered the league as a teenager, Howard probably sees the allure of being pursued by the league much in the same way that LeBron James (and Dwyane Wade … and Chris Bosh …) sought professional control after being with the same franchise for so long. If the deals aren't up to snuff, Howard will have to wait for his moment of power.
