Overvalued/undervalued tourney teams
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Back in January, Edward Golden of Right Angle Sports did something very strange for a guy who sells picks for a living: He stopped.
It was the middle of college basketball season and Golden, by any measure, is one of the most followed and influential hoops handicappers in the business. He is a totals specialist, focusing on the games the rest of us don't think about when we think about college basketball. But the truth is, it doesn't matter what he's pitching -- sides, totals, brand-name schools, teams you wouldn't recognize if they were your alma mater -- when he makes a play, lines move. Period. End of story (and of value).
I know this for a fact, which I will get to.
For several years during college football season RAS had stopped handing out plays after Week 8 of the season. The deeper it gets into any sport on the calendar, the less value there is in the line. So at the beginning of the college basketball season, with Golden and one of his partners both being new fathers, they decided to try the same thing with their bread-and-butter sport. "And it kind of told the entire team, 'Let's just really kick ass these first 10 weeks and then after that we will shut it down for the season.' We put in everything we had and it was a way to justify to ourselves putting in this extra time and to our families that there would be a break at the end of it," Golden says. "The first 10 weeks of the season there are so many opportunities, it makes it worth it for us. I think it's a good model."
Imagine consciously deciding enough is enough. Imagine having the confidence to pull out of the game when you are the height of your influence, just when everyone is starting to pay attention to it. There is no doubt that Golden and RAS left client money on the table. And when he first told me he was doing this a few months ago, I asked him if he would do a column about it. This was a novel approach, I thought. Then, on Monday afternoon, he told me he was going to be tweeting out his picks from his @RASpicks handle for free. Again, I asked if he would do a column with me. He finally agreed, and I am glad he waited, because it gave me an opportunity to conduct an experiment.
<offer>I have known for years that the moment Golden released his picks to clients, those lines moved instantly. It's common knowledge amongst the betting set. And it happened again this past week. He tweeted that he liked Southern Miss plus-6 versus Kansas State and, within minutes, the line had dropped to 5.5. He released New Mexico State plus-6.5 against Indiana, and the line moved to six. The same thing happened when he mentioned he liked Wichita State minus-5.5 over VCU. Soon that game was at six.
(Here is the first advice portion of the column, starting with this: "If you want to get on these games, wait," Golden says. "I bet the number will move back the other way and you will be able to get them near the prices I did as the games get closer." And here is his take on each game:
"Southern Miss is a really well-coached team. It will have a good game plan and good defense. They beat New Mexico State on a neutral, took Murray State to double OT on a neutral and they can play at a high level away from home. I think they have a good shot to win. I'm not too impressed with Kansas State. In the past they had explosive guards who could carry them but not this year. I think it will be a close game."
"I like New Mexico State to cover and I know what I am going to say here will be controversial, but I think the Big 10 is overrated. So I am looking to go against those teams. Indiana lost a great playmaker in Verdell Jones to the knee injury. New Mexico State has really good size and depth, especially inside. They are not going to be overpowered by any means. I always start by looking for dogs in the tourney and this is a good spot for the dog. I can't say I see them winning, but I do think that number is a good bet."
"Wichita State is mainly a play against VCU. The CAA is really down this year and VCU won the title almost playing with a home-court advantage. Plus Drexel was playing key players 39 or 40 minutes and VCU still almost blew a big lead. I think they are satisfied with what they accomplished so far and Wichita State is not. Every set of ratings we looked at had this line higher."
We now return to the regularly scheduled column).
I am a bona fide journalist. I don't just take people's word for it when I hear one guy is wreaking havoc with lines. I dig deep to get the facts. So on Monday night I was on the phone with Golden and he told me he was going to tweet out a play. It was over 133.5 on Long Beach State versus New Mexico. "I expect," he told me in a matter-of-fact way, "that it will move quite a bit."
At 9:26 p.m. ET he sent out this tweet: NCAA Total #1: 739 Long Beach State Over 133.5
I saw the tweet and was watching the lines on my screen. For 30 seconds, nothing happened. I was bummed. I wanted him to move it. And then, before the clock hit 60 seconds, Pinnacle moved it to a point. By 9:28, both Pinnacle and CRIS had adjusted the line to read 135.5. Two minutes, two points, one tweet. That is an effective example of influence.
(Here is the advice portion of the column No. 2, in which, this being the eve of the NCAA tournament, Mr. Golden gives me his two most overvalued and undervalued teams. Because it's still not too late to get your brackets in.)
Overvalued teams
San Diego State Aztecs: "After a surprising start, they have gone mostly in a straight line, if not regressed in the second half of the season. A lack of depth and consistent scoring options are the main issues. They were just not competitive in MWC final versus New Mexico."
VCU Rams: "This is a young team and a down year for the CAA. The pressure defense that worked well against bad CAA teams won't be as effective against more talented opponents. VCU won the conference tournament final against a badly fatigued Drexel team, [otherwise] it likely wouldn't be in the dance. This team has to be satisfied with what it has accomplished already, plus it has to open play on the West Coast."
Undervalued teams
Saint Mary's Gaels: "Randy Bennett compares this team favorably with the one that made a Sweet 16 run a few years back. Matthew Dellavedova is a star and makes great decisions with the ball. Plus, they won the WCC tournament even without starting guard and top perimeter defender Stephen Holt, who should be back in time for tournament. This team has really progressed during the season."
Iowa State Cyclones: "The Cyclones are flying under the radar despite equaling Baylor's record in the Big 12 conference standings. [They are] another team that has shown progress throughout the season. Royce White is awesome and he is complemented by several efficient teammates. They won't beat themselves."
</offer>
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
Back in January, Edward Golden of Right Angle Sports did something very strange for a guy who sells picks for a living: He stopped.
It was the middle of college basketball season and Golden, by any measure, is one of the most followed and influential hoops handicappers in the business. He is a totals specialist, focusing on the games the rest of us don't think about when we think about college basketball. But the truth is, it doesn't matter what he's pitching -- sides, totals, brand-name schools, teams you wouldn't recognize if they were your alma mater -- when he makes a play, lines move. Period. End of story (and of value).
I know this for a fact, which I will get to.
For several years during college football season RAS had stopped handing out plays after Week 8 of the season. The deeper it gets into any sport on the calendar, the less value there is in the line. So at the beginning of the college basketball season, with Golden and one of his partners both being new fathers, they decided to try the same thing with their bread-and-butter sport. "And it kind of told the entire team, 'Let's just really kick ass these first 10 weeks and then after that we will shut it down for the season.' We put in everything we had and it was a way to justify to ourselves putting in this extra time and to our families that there would be a break at the end of it," Golden says. "The first 10 weeks of the season there are so many opportunities, it makes it worth it for us. I think it's a good model."
Imagine consciously deciding enough is enough. Imagine having the confidence to pull out of the game when you are the height of your influence, just when everyone is starting to pay attention to it. There is no doubt that Golden and RAS left client money on the table. And when he first told me he was doing this a few months ago, I asked him if he would do a column about it. This was a novel approach, I thought. Then, on Monday afternoon, he told me he was going to be tweeting out his picks from his @RASpicks handle for free. Again, I asked if he would do a column with me. He finally agreed, and I am glad he waited, because it gave me an opportunity to conduct an experiment.
<offer>I have known for years that the moment Golden released his picks to clients, those lines moved instantly. It's common knowledge amongst the betting set. And it happened again this past week. He tweeted that he liked Southern Miss plus-6 versus Kansas State and, within minutes, the line had dropped to 5.5. He released New Mexico State plus-6.5 against Indiana, and the line moved to six. The same thing happened when he mentioned he liked Wichita State minus-5.5 over VCU. Soon that game was at six.
(Here is the first advice portion of the column, starting with this: "If you want to get on these games, wait," Golden says. "I bet the number will move back the other way and you will be able to get them near the prices I did as the games get closer." And here is his take on each game:
"Southern Miss is a really well-coached team. It will have a good game plan and good defense. They beat New Mexico State on a neutral, took Murray State to double OT on a neutral and they can play at a high level away from home. I think they have a good shot to win. I'm not too impressed with Kansas State. In the past they had explosive guards who could carry them but not this year. I think it will be a close game."
"I like New Mexico State to cover and I know what I am going to say here will be controversial, but I think the Big 10 is overrated. So I am looking to go against those teams. Indiana lost a great playmaker in Verdell Jones to the knee injury. New Mexico State has really good size and depth, especially inside. They are not going to be overpowered by any means. I always start by looking for dogs in the tourney and this is a good spot for the dog. I can't say I see them winning, but I do think that number is a good bet."
"Wichita State is mainly a play against VCU. The CAA is really down this year and VCU won the title almost playing with a home-court advantage. Plus Drexel was playing key players 39 or 40 minutes and VCU still almost blew a big lead. I think they are satisfied with what they accomplished so far and Wichita State is not. Every set of ratings we looked at had this line higher."
We now return to the regularly scheduled column).
I am a bona fide journalist. I don't just take people's word for it when I hear one guy is wreaking havoc with lines. I dig deep to get the facts. So on Monday night I was on the phone with Golden and he told me he was going to tweet out a play. It was over 133.5 on Long Beach State versus New Mexico. "I expect," he told me in a matter-of-fact way, "that it will move quite a bit."
At 9:26 p.m. ET he sent out this tweet: NCAA Total #1: 739 Long Beach State Over 133.5
I saw the tweet and was watching the lines on my screen. For 30 seconds, nothing happened. I was bummed. I wanted him to move it. And then, before the clock hit 60 seconds, Pinnacle moved it to a point. By 9:28, both Pinnacle and CRIS had adjusted the line to read 135.5. Two minutes, two points, one tweet. That is an effective example of influence.
(Here is the advice portion of the column No. 2, in which, this being the eve of the NCAA tournament, Mr. Golden gives me his two most overvalued and undervalued teams. Because it's still not too late to get your brackets in.)
Overvalued teams
San Diego State Aztecs: "After a surprising start, they have gone mostly in a straight line, if not regressed in the second half of the season. A lack of depth and consistent scoring options are the main issues. They were just not competitive in MWC final versus New Mexico."
VCU Rams: "This is a young team and a down year for the CAA. The pressure defense that worked well against bad CAA teams won't be as effective against more talented opponents. VCU won the conference tournament final against a badly fatigued Drexel team, [otherwise] it likely wouldn't be in the dance. This team has to be satisfied with what it has accomplished already, plus it has to open play on the West Coast."
Undervalued teams
Saint Mary's Gaels: "Randy Bennett compares this team favorably with the one that made a Sweet 16 run a few years back. Matthew Dellavedova is a star and makes great decisions with the ball. Plus, they won the WCC tournament even without starting guard and top perimeter defender Stephen Holt, who should be back in time for tournament. This team has really progressed during the season."
Iowa State Cyclones: "The Cyclones are flying under the radar despite equaling Baylor's record in the Big 12 conference standings. [They are] another team that has shown progress throughout the season. Royce White is awesome and he is complemented by several efficient teammates. They won't beat themselves."
</offer>
