Top Value Bets For Sunday's NCAA Games

Top value bets for Sunday's games

By Dave Tuley/Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER

LAS VEGAS -- While Thursday's chalk-fest was an ATM for the for March Madness tourists here in town and kept most of America smiling about how clean their brackets looked, Friday busted all of that.


No. 15 seed Norfolk State beat No. 2 Missouri 86-84 as a 21-point underdog. No. 15 seed Lehigh beat No. 2 Duke 75-70 as an 11.5-point 'dog. No. 13 seed Ohio beat No. 4 Michigan 65-60 as a 6-point 'dog. No. 12 seed South Florida beat No. 5 seed Temple 58-44 as a 3.5 point underdog. And there were smaller upsets by Saint Louis, Purdue and Xavier (note: No. 11 NC State was the betting favorite over No. 6 San Diego State).


Actually, underdogs went only 8-7-1 against the spread on Friday, but it's the upsets that resonate in the collective subconscious of college basketball fans and the games that draw the most attention on "SportsCenter."


To make sense of the madness that those upsets left us with, I placed a call late Friday night to Sal Selvaggio of Maddux Sports (madduxsports.com and on Twitter @sportspicks) to help talk me through my handicapping of Sunday's matchups.



"Thursday was filled with terrible matchups and boring games, but today [Friday] was awesome," Selvaggio said. "This is what we want March Madness to be all about, though I actually made more money on Thursday."
Let's take a look at Sunday's games:


Midwest

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels versus No. 8 Creighton Bluejays
Spread: North Carolina minus-9

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Selvaggio: "I bet Creighton +2 against Bama on Friday and came out of that game more impressed with how good Alabama was. That being said I have loved this Creighton team all year and I still think the Bluejays offer some value on Sunday. Teams that play in their home state have been good bets over the years but, that is the only thing keeping this from a big bet. I think Creighton will be able to score enough to keep this one close and should have much better looks at the basket compared to the Alabama game, especially if John Henson's defense is missing.


Finally, there are only five teams in the tournament field that shoot free throws worse than UNC, meaning if we get into a late-game foul-fest Creighton could possibly sneak in the back door because of that liability.


Tuley: "I'm high on Creighton myself, though my bet on them is as much against North Carolina covering this number (though the Heels did cover the 16-point spread in a 19-point win over Vermont), which I personally feel should be closer to 6, so that adds value (assuming I'm not being biased). As of this writing, Henson is listed as questionable, which helps."
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 10 Purdue Boilermakers
Spread: Kansas minus-8


Selvaggio: "Purdue's Matt Painter has always been a great bet off a loss, but not so much after a win. Purdue was 0-7 against teams in the Big Ten that are close to Kansas' level -- Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State -- while being blown out in five of them. Both teams benefitted from poor 3-point shooting by their opponents, but Kansas' defense is light-years ahead of Purdue's.


The Boilermakers are fantastic at not turning the ball over, but they are a very poor free throw shooting team, below-average offensive rebounding team, and don't do a good job at getting to the foul line. These are all things that teams that cover games in the NCAA tournament do well. I feel these deficiencies will rear their head Sunday and against a team like Kansas really do them in. Kansas minus whatever is worth a good-sized bet.


Tuley: "I'm not going to argue with that, as Purdue's performance against top-level teams has been very poor. If this line was in double digits, I might be able to make a case for the Boilermakers covering (or at least on Kansas not winning by margin), but I'll pass.
No. 3 Georgetown Hoyas versus No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack
Spread: Georgetown minus-4


Tuley: I'm passing this game as well. North Carolina State is playing its best basketball now, but Georgetown is solid and this line seems short, even though it's the same as it was against No. 14 seed Belmont, though I thought that line was short, too."


Selvaggio: "This line, to me, is ridiculous. Georgetown would have been favored by 10 points a month ago and now you are laying 4. Georgetown was ultra-impressive in torching Belmont, a top-25-rated team by wiseguys, while NC State won against an over-seeded and overrated San Diego State. Good luck preparing for John Thompson III's complex offensive/defensive schemes. To prove my point about how difficult these schemes are since Thompson took over at Georgetown, here's a stat worth noting: His teams are 51-27 against the spread against nonconference teams including 7-0 ATS this season. I made this game Georgetown minus-8 and bet a ton at minus-3.5. This is the best play on the board."
No. 12 South Florida Bulls versus No. 13 Ohio Bobcats
Spread: USF minus-3


Selvaggio: "Ohio clearly outplayed John Beilein and Michigan, which is very impressive. Ohio is one of the best teams in the country at creating turnovers and defending the 3-point line, but it is just an average offensive team. As for South Florida, I have no idea how the Bulls keep winning. Yes, they defend their rear ends off, but on offense they don't get to the line, their turnover percentage is atrocious, and they can't shoot the 3. Rather than lose another bet fading them I will likely be sitting this one out."


Tuley: "I'm sitting out the side as well, but I'll jump in on the under (opened 114.5). That has the feel of a square play as obviously everyone keeps talking about how South Florida is all about defense and both teams are offensively challenged. Oddsmakers set the number low, but there's only so low they can go. It's not like they can post a 102, the combined score in USF's 58-44 win over Temple, but I believe it'll be close to that number."
East



No. 3 Florida State Seminoles versus No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats
Spread: Florida State minus-2.5


Selvaggio: "My numbers make Florida State a 2-point favorite, which is pretty close to the line. A small coaching advantage goes to Leonard Hamilton. I don't like that FSU had to use so much energy just to win on Friday, as this can often come back to haunt you a day later. I wasn't impressed with Cincinnati either, and Texas gave the Bearcats the game more than them it. Cincinnati's poor free throw shooting will knock it out eventually and I just don't feel like trying to guess when that might be. I won't be betting this game."


Tuley: "As we talked on the phone late Friday, this line went from Florida State minus-1.5 to minus-2.5, so someone -- or more likely some group -- likes the Seminoles, but I'm passing as well. Sal's comment about Cincy's free throw shooting is the single-most common opinion I've heard about the remaining teams -- no one trusts them in the endgame."
South

No. 10 Xavier Musketeers versus No. 15 Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Spread: Xavier minus-3.5


Selvaggio: "Lehigh is extremely well-coached and is playing with a ton of confidence. It came out thinking it could compete with Duke, and as the game wore on it knew it was better than Duke for the night. This was not your typical Duke team and should have been seeded closer to the 4-line. Beating Duke will make Sunday's line come out 2 points lower than it would have been, which is too much of an overcorrection based on one game's result.


"I have said Xavier's A-game is on par with just about anyone in the country. The problem is you never know when you are going to get it and how long it will stick around. Duke losing is about the best thing that can happen to this team. Now the Musketeers see a wide-open draw and are coming off a confidence-building win. I think we got Xavier at a rock-bottom price versus Lehigh, whose stock couldn't be higher. Xavier minus whatever is worth a bet.


Tuley: "I agree that's probably the right side, but I am leery about Xavier's inconsistency as well as being impressed with a Lehigh team I haven't seen before, so I'll pass."
West

No. 1 Michigan State Spartans versus No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens
Spread: Michigan State minus-6


Selvaggio: "It is criminal what the committee did to Saint Louis having the Billikens have to face Memphis and now Michigan State. I won my biggest bet of the tournament on Saint Louis on Friday but that was because the coaching matchup of Rick Majerus versus Josh Pastner was like stealing. Michigan State is just a better, more talented version of Saint Louis. Both are going to play a great half-court game and not make any mistakes. I won't be betting this game. These are both play-on teams for me, and it is a shame one of them has to go down."


Tuley: "As most sharps were, I was disappointed Saint Louis and Memphis were pitted against each other, but I knew pretty much that I'd be backing the winner against the Spartans. I was hoping the number would come a little higher -- and Sal said to call him back if it was closer to 8 or 9 -- but I still think there's enough value to make a play on Saint Louis.
No. 7 Florida Gators versus No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans
Spread: Florida minus-14

Selvaggio: "Everyone knows Norfolk State pulled off a monumental upset, but by the numbers it was the greatest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament, besting Santa Clara's win as a 20-point underdog in 1993. Santa Clara lost its next game out and I fully expect a blowout in this game as well. Florida is vastly underseeded and its power rating would have it closer to a 4, not a 7. The Gators have one of the most efficient offenses in the country and I don't see how a poor defense is going to be able to keep up.

"On offense, those quick shots that Norfolk State was taking against Missouri likely won't be going in, leading to a slew of fast-break points for the Gators. Florida minus whatever is worthy of a good-sized bet."


Tuley: "Sal is right that history tells us that the really big Cinderellas in the NCAA tournament are usually one-and-done, but it's still a pretty short sample and I'll take the 'dog here with the big points. Florida might be underseeded, but the Gators' goal is still just to survive and advance and I'll take my chances with either Norfolk State being in it the whole game or its starters getting a chance to get in the back door against Florida's subs. And 10-1 to win straight-up is available for those who think lightning can strike twice (though that seems very short compared with the 35-1 and 45-1 prices on them against Missouri).


Selvaggio's early leans: Kansas minus-9, Georgetown minus-4, Xavier minus-3.5, Florida minus-14


Tuley's early leans: Creighton plus-9, South Florida-Ohio under 114.5, Saint Louis plus-6, Norfolk State plus-14

Upset odds for Sunday's games

By Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner
ESPN INSIDER

When last we left you, we were analyzing a historic win by Norfolk State, rushing to publish the blog entry and planning to settle in for a tranquil night of hoops after a long week of work.


Oops.


First, Norfolk State found a companion in Lehigh. Then our model took a bow when it nailed Ohio over Michigan. Just when we were prepping to see how the Bobcats might match up with Temple, South Florida found its offense and set up a 12 vs. 13 battle, meaning it has no GK significance. Memphis and Saint Louis flip-flopped for the right to wage a GK war with Michigan State. And another comeback left Xavier as a Giant in the next round.


Madness, indeed.


You can read yesterday's blog by clicking here for a preview of Norfolk State and Florida, while we look ahead to three other GK games on Sunday's slate -- and how they came to be.


The 15th-seeded Lehigh Mountain Hawks (Giant Killer rating of less than 2 on a 100-point scale) vs. the No. 10 Xavier Musketeers (40.5 vulnerability rating)
Upset chance: 10.1 percent

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Is there such a thing as the GK Jinx? Earlier in the week, we wrote, "We were all set to write about how Duke was more vulnerable than we've seen in ages (its rating is usually close to zero). Then the Blue Devils drew Lehigh. And while we love C.J. McCollum and his knack for both scoring and swiping the ball, Lehigh just doesn't fit the GK profile."


If that didn't tempt fate enough, we went on to say, "Oh, then there's this little fact: In Coach K's tenure at Duke, the team has lost just one game to a Giant Killer (VCU in a 6-11 game in 2007). That's it. In fact, the Blue Devils have lost only one other time to a double-digit seed, but that was a power-conference team (Boston College) all the way back in 1985."


Well, that stat is history -- and so is Duke. How did a game with a 2.9 percent upset chance turn into one of the most shocking results in tourney history? Through non-traditional GK tactics. The Mountain Hawks didn't crash the offensive boards or nail tons of treys, nor did they force a bundle of turnovers. The one area where they limited the battle of possessions was against Duke's 3-point shooters, holding the Blue Devils to 6-of-26 shooting from behind the arc.


But the big difference, which is truly unusual for a Giant Killer, came at the free throw line. Lehigh scored a high percentage of its points (22.1) from the stripe during the season, but that rarely translates against a Giant. But on Friday night, the Mountain Hawks shot a staggering 37 free throws, making 25. The Blue Devils attempted only 23.


The thing is, we're still not sure the model pegged Lehigh particularly wrong as a less-than-dangerous Killer, but it underrated Duke's vulnerability. The Blue Devils' 11.8 rating was high by their standards but didn't account for Ryan Kelly's injury. If we'd done the same analysis we used to examine Syracuse without Fab Melo, we're willing to bet Duke would've been in much worse shape in our projection.


Now Lehigh turns around to face Xavier, which somehow finds itself in the position of being a Giant as a 10-seed. And that's not a great role for the Musketeers, who sport a dangerously high 40.5 vulnerability rating. Like safe Giants, their defense is strong both inside and outside the arc, they take care of the ball on offense and crash the boards on D. But they don't do anything to maximize possessions through turnovers, offensive rebounds and 3-pointers, and they score too many of their points from the free throw line.


Lehigh has plenty to celebrate after an incredible victory, and with an even more vulnerable foe waiting for them, doubling down isn't out of the question.


The No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens (31.7) vs. the No. 1 Michigan State Spartans (28.6)
Upset chance: 22.9 percent


Saint Louis took the battle royale of tempo-free stats Friday night. Memphis and the Billikens have been highly ranked on kenpom.com all season, but it was the methodical Billikens who advanced. Now they'll face Michigan State, and they're armed and dangerous.


The Magical Majeri are absolute stalwarts in the turnover battle, giving it up just 18.1 percent of the time (50th in the country), while forcing mistakes on 23.1 percent of possessions (36th). That coincides with the Spartans' greatest weaknesses, as they're at 19.7 percent (140th) and 19.7 (194th), respectively. (Yes, Michigan State actually has the same turnover percentage on offense and defense.)


Saint Louis also knocks down 36.9 percent of its 3-pointers and holds teams to a 28.6 offensive rebounding rate, meaning there's a great showdown looming, because Michigan State excels in both areas (opponents shoot just 29.7 percent from downtown and Sparty grabs offensive boards 37.2 percent of the time). Those factors will likely determine the outcome of the game. But given Saint Louis' edge in the turnover battle and its overall efficient D (87.9 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the country), the Billikens should be in this one to the final buzzer.


The No. 8 Creighton Bluejays (6.5) vs. the No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (3.7)
Upset chance: 2.7 percent


While everyone inhales the Harrison Barnes/Doug McDermott high school reunion storyline over the next two days, get a whiff of this: According to our model, Creighton has only a tiny chance of taking out the Tar Heels. This feels surprising, because the Bluejays have been highly regarded for much of the season. But they're a better team than Killer.


Despite an impressive offense that led the country in effective field goal percentage, Creighton's defense is putrid. The Bluejays saw teams shoot 35.8 percent from 3-point range and 47.5 percent from inside, while forcing turnovers on only 15.5 percent of possessions. Only Colgate and William & Mary had less disruptive defenses this season.



Good luck trying to outscore the Tar Heels then. They are the safest Giant in the field, according to our model, and while they don't shoot as well as you'd expect, their incredibly high offensive rebound rate (40.1 percent, eighth in the country) and low turnover rate (16.1 percent, eight as well) makes the Heels' offense efficient. And they're a far better defensive club than they receive credit for being, ranking 12th in efficiency.


Of course, if John Henson isn't fit to go, that would change the equation a bit -- particularly on defense. But with him in the lineup, our model sees no reason to expect an upset.